Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY, SUPCON TECHNOLOGY, SHANGHAI ALLIST PHARMACEUTICALS, TRANSSION, Kingsoft Office Software, MONTAGE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of STAR50 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY, SUPCON TECHNOLOGY, SHANGHAI ALLIST PHARMACEUTICALS, TRANSSION, Kingsoft Office Software, MONTAGE.


STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changxin-memory-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT (1726722D CH)</a> aims to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO in the A-share STAR market. It is rapidly gaining global market share, which is its key attractiveness.</li>
<li>It is a beneficiary of a solid industry and demand outlook. It has a leadership position in China's DRAM market and high competitiveness built on its technological strength. </li>
<li>At just 2.8x PER for FY26, based on 10% share capital enlargement, our initial assessment is that it is priced cheaper than global peers. </li>
</ul>



CXMT (1726722D CH) aims to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO in the A-share STAR market. It is rapidly gaining global market share, which is its key attractiveness.
It is a beneficiary of a solid industry and demand outlook. It has a leadership position in China's DRAM market and high competitiveness built on its technological strength. 
At just 2.8x PER for FY26, based on 10% share capital enlargement, our initial assessment is that it is priced cheaper than global peers. 


CXMT Corporation (长鑫科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

China

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. produces and sells mobile phones. The Company provides mobile phones researching, development, designing, production, sales, after-sales services, and other services. Shenzhen Transsion Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ninebot (689009 CH), METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (688802 CH), BEIJING...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CXMT Corporation (长鑫科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

CXMT plans to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO on the A-share STAR market, with strong global market share growth and competitive IPO pricing compared...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

STAR50 Index Earning Revision (Jul): Ninebot, METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BEIJING ROBOROCK TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed STAR50's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ninebot (689009 CH), METAX INTEGRATED CIRCUITS (688802 CH), BEIJING...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CXMT Corporation (长鑫科技) Pre-IPO: Key Investment Thesis

​CXMT plans to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO on the A-share STAR market, with strong global market share growth and competitive IPO pricing compared...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CXMT plans to raise Rmb29.5bn in its IPO on the A-share STAR market, with strong global market share growth and competitive IPO pricing compared...