Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> significantly beat Q4 2024 earnings expectations, yet the stock showed minimal price movement with just a 1.0% gain immediately after the announcement.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings implied volatility declined substantially from 72% pre-earnings to below 53.4% after earnings, confirming pre-announcement predictions of overpriced volatility.</li>
<li>Straddle positions were actively traded around the earnings event. A case study showcases a profitable short straddle strategy.</li>
</ul>



Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) significantly beat Q4 2024 earnings expectations, yet the stock showed minimal price movement with just a 1.0% gain immediately after the announcement.
Post-Earnings implied volatility declined substantially from 72% pre-earnings to below 53.4% after earnings, confirming pre-announcement predictions of overpriced volatility.
Straddle positions were actively traded around the earnings event. A case study showcases a profitable short straddle strategy.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Beat, Volatility Retreat, and Straddle Success

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi's Japan market share rose to ~7% in C2Q24 from the year prior, driven by carrier partnerships and brand recognition from <em>SU7</em> media coverage and  a product partnership with LEICA;</li>
<li>Upon examination, we found Xiaomi filled a product gap left by the smartphone exits of Kyocera and Fujitsu, for the carriers, which account for 90% of handset sales in Japan;</li>
<li>In our view, Xiaomi’s success in Japan marks a turning point in its global brand perception, signaling potential for further growth in other developed and high end developing markets.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi's Japan market share rose to ~7% in C2Q24 from the year prior, driven by carrier partnerships and brand recognition from SU7 media coverage and  a product partnership with LEICA;
Upon examination, we found Xiaomi filled a product gap left by the smartphone exits of Kyocera and Fujitsu, for the carriers, which account for 90% of handset sales in Japan;
In our view, Xiaomi’s success in Japan marks a turning point in its global brand perception, signaling potential for further growth in other developed and high end developing markets.


Xiaomi's Smartphone Share Gain in Japan Is a Harbinger of Good Things to Come

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Transsion is the global No. 4 largest smartphone producer according to IDC.</li>
<li>In 1Q24, shipments increased by 34% YoY and revenue increased by 88% YoY.</li>
<li>We see the stock's upside at 17% and the price target at RMB100.00.</li>
</ul>


Transsion is the global No. 4 largest smartphone producer according to IDC.
In 1Q24, shipments increased by 34% YoY and revenue increased by 88% YoY.
We see the stock's upside at 17% and the price target at RMB100.00.


Transsion (688036 CH): Global No. 4 Smartphone Producer, Revenue Up by 88% YoY in 1Q24

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$3,861.7 million, led by consumer staples, financials, materials sectors, and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare Precision, Eoptolink Technology Inc.,, Imeik Technology Development, Zijin Mining, Bank Of Jiangsu, Midea.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$3,861.7 million, led by consumer staples, financials, materials sectors, and offset by communication services.
We highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare Precision, Eoptolink Technology Inc.,, Imeik Technology Development, Zijin Mining, Bank Of Jiangsu, Midea.


Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare

<ul>
<li>In 1Q24, Xiaomi and Transsion shipments grew rapidly, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> shrank.</li>
<li>Tims China’s revenue expanded with new openings, which is encouraging in the competitive market.</li>
<li>In China, Tesla fired salespeople who had served the company for less than six months.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q24, Xiaomi and Transsion shipments grew rapidly, while Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Apple (AAPL US) shrank.
Tims China’s revenue expanded with new openings, which is encouraging in the competitive market.
In China, Tesla fired salespeople who had served the company for less than six months.


China Consumption Weekly (22 Apr 2024): Xiaomi, Transsion, Tims China, Xpeng, Tesla

China

Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co., Ltd. produces and sells mobile phones. The Company provides mobile phones researching, development, designing, production, sales, after-sales services, and other services. Shenzhen Transsion Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Beat, Volatility Retreat, and Straddle Success

Xiaomi Corp post-earnings implied volatility drops significantly. Trading straddle positions around earnings event proves profitable.

Gaudenz Schneider

Transsion (688036 CH): Global No. 4 Smartphone Producer, Revenue Up by 88% YoY in 1Q24

Transsion is the global No. 4 largest smartphone producer. In 1Q24, shipments increased by 34% YoY and revenue increased by 88% YoY.

Ming Lu

Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Consumption Weekly (22 Apr 2024): Xiaomi, Transsion, Tims China, Xpeng, Tesla

In 1Q24, Xiaomi and Transsion shipments grew rapidly. Tims China’s revenue expanded with new openings. In China, Tesla fired salespeople.

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Earnings Beat, Volatility Retreat, and Straddle Success

​Xiaomi Corp post-earnings implied volatility drops significantly. Trading straddle positions around earnings event proves profitable.

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi's Smartphone Share Gain in Japan Is a Harbinger of Good Things to Come

Xiaomi’s Japan success signals a broader global improvement in its brand image. High-profile products like the 14 Ultra and SU7 EV drive a shift...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Transsion (688036 CH): Global No. 4 Smartphone Producer, Revenue Up by 88% YoY in 1Q24

Transsion is the global No. 4 largest smartphone producer. In 1Q24, shipments increased by 34% YoY and revenue increased by 88% YoY.

Ming Lu

Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Consumption Weekly (22 Apr 2024): Xiaomi, Transsion, Tims China, Xpeng, Tesla

In 1Q24, Xiaomi and Transsion shipments grew rapidly. Tims China’s revenue expanded with new openings. In China, Tesla fired salespeople.

Ming Lu

Xiaomi Corp post-earnings implied volatility drops significantly. Trading straddle positions around earnings event proves profitable.