Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With Minebea out, Yageo’s ¥7,130/share bid (55% premium, ~18× FY25E P/E) is the sole path forward; board support makes completion highly probable.</li>
<li>Japanese takeover rules ensure eventual squeeze-out (&gt;90%) or illiquidity (50–90%); past bumps without rivals have been modest (+1–5%).</li>
<li>Clear Timeline: Tender closes mid-Oct 2025, results late Oct, squeeze-out Nov–Dec, delisting by Jan 2026 — shareholders should tender to lock in value.</li>
</ul>


With Minebea out, Yageo’s ¥7,130/share bid (55% premium, ~18× FY25E P/E) is the sole path forward; board support makes completion highly probable.
Japanese takeover rules ensure eventual squeeze-out (&gt;90%) or illiquidity (50–90%); past bumps without rivals have been modest (+1–5%).
Clear Timeline: Tender closes mid-Oct 2025, results late Oct, squeeze-out Nov–Dec, delisting by Jan 2026 — shareholders should tender to lock in value.


Shibaura Electronics – Yageo Tender Offer Defines the Endgame

<ul>
<li>Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) is at the center of a takeover battle between MinebeaMitsumi and Taiwan’s YAGEO.</li>
<li>Minebea has bid ¥6,200/share with 23% locked in and management support, while YAGEO counters at ¥7,130/share, pending FEFTA clearance.</li>
<li>Financial investors may wait for FEFTA clarity and lean YAGEO for price, while risk‑averse or aligned holders favor Minebea’s certainty.</li>
</ul>


Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) is at the center of a takeover battle between MinebeaMitsumi and Taiwan’s YAGEO.
Minebea has bid ¥6,200/share with 23% locked in and management support, while YAGEO counters at ¥7,130/share, pending FEFTA clearance.
Financial investors may wait for FEFTA clarity and lean YAGEO for price, while risk‑averse or aligned holders favor Minebea’s certainty.


Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) – Takeover Battle: Minebea Certainty Vs. YAGEO Premium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

<ul>
<li>I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB  (AUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE (9956 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scsk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19996:1" rel="noopener">SCSK (9719 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainpad-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11499:1" rel="noopener">Brainpad (3655 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-riko-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14955:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-densetsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1530:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd-2e580cf8-6a65-4148-ac1e-f9a8a167856a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36656:1" rel="noopener">Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/restaurant-brands-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11891:1" rel="noopener">Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Six new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: AUB  (AUB AU), ANE (9956 HK), SCSK (9719 JP), Brainpad (3655 JP), Sumitomo Riko (5191 JP), and Sumitomo Densetsu (1949 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Humm Group (HUM AU), Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ). 


Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

<ul>
<li>Palliser discloxes stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-chem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3583:1" rel="noopener">LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS)</a>, and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. </li>
<li>The family  increased their bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a> by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a> appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.</li>
</ul>


Palliser discloxes stake in LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS), and subsequently seeks to spill the board and undertake buybacks. 
The family  increased their bid for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) by 42.4%, from ¥2,050 to ¥2,919/share. This now becomes a short-term rate of return trade. It will trade relatively tight.

First Pacific Co (142 HK) appears to have squeezed the most out its unlisted subsidiary MPIC, for now, with the forthcoming Maynilad IPO.


Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

Japan

SHIBAURA ELECTRONICS CO., LTD. manufactures and sells thermistor elements, sensors, measuring devices, and control equipment.  The Company's products include temperature sensors, air flow sensors, liquid level sensors, gas sensors, digital thermometers, temperature controllers, anemometers, digital hygrometers, and humidity controllers.

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Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)

Shibaura Electronics – Yageo Tender Offer Defines the Endgame

Yageo's bid for Minebea is the only option forward, with a clear timeline for completion and potential squeeze-out of shareholders.

Rahul Jain

Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) – Takeover Battle: Minebea Certainty Vs. YAGEO Premium

Shibaura Electronics faces a takeover battle between MinebeaMitsumi and YAGEO, with investors weighing uncertainty versus certainty in bid prices.

Rahul Jain

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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Shibaura Electronics – Yageo Tender Offer Defines the Endgame

​Yageo's bid for Minebea is the only option forward, with a clear timeline for completion and potential squeeze-out of shareholders.

Rahul Jain

Shibaura Electronics (6590 JP) – Takeover Battle: Minebea Certainty Vs. YAGEO Premium

​Shibaura Electronics faces a takeover battle between MinebeaMitsumi and YAGEO, with investors weighing uncertainty versus certainty in bid prices.

Rahul Jain

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: SCSK Corp, AUB, Brainpad, ANE Cayman, Sumitomo Densetsu, Sumitomo Densetsu

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: LG Chem, Pacific Industrial, Critical Minerals, First Pacific

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Yageo's bid for Minebea is the only option forward, with a clear timeline for completion and potential squeeze-out of shareholders.

Shibaura Electronics faces a takeover battle between MinebeaMitsumi and YAGEO, with investors weighing uncertainty versus certainty in bid prices.