Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF will double, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a>'s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the September rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2 changes at the review.

BayCurrent Consulting's PAF will double, Fast Retailing's CPAF will stay the same, and Sony Financial Group will be deleted from the index following its spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 

Sanrio (8136 JP)'s improved liquidity increases the probability of index inclusion, and the stock could be added to the index at the next rebalance if it misses in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping.</li>
<li>That was obvious a couple months ago, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> buying to come has been known for five months.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn't replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.</li>
</ul>


The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn't replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a> as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a> later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends in 4 weeks. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
There will be passive buying in BayCurrent Consulting as the PAF moves from 0.5 to 1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is below the 10% cap for now. 

ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) replaces NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) later this week and there will be a lot of focus on those names.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.</li>
<li>The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) reported 3QFY08/2025 results last week, with solid top-line and earnings growth. 3Q revenue fell below consensus while OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
The margin drop in 3Q was only due to seasonality and not due to operational inefficiencies. Shift also raised its full-year OP guidance which seems too conservative.
The market overreacted to Shift’s 3Q earnings with a 10% drop; however, the share price has begun to move up as there is no reason to panic.


Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,320m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio, Lasertec, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ntt Data, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electric Power Company.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,320m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio, Lasertec, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ntt Data, Fujikura, Nintendo, Tokyo Electric Power Company.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

Japan

SHIFT Inc. offers information technology outsourcing services. The Company provides outsourcing software testing services to corporations and individual clients. SHIFT also provides software solutions and consulting services, as well as educational classes and programs.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shift Inc (3697 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

A week or so to go for the announcement of changes to the NKY in September. The forecast adds have dropped a bit over the last week and there will...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The Nikkei 225 rebalance for September 2025 is now finalised as regards liquidity data and capping. But we don't know what sensitivity the index...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Sep25: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

A week or so to go for the announcement of changes to the NKY in September. The forecast adds have dropped a bit over the last week and there will...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The Nikkei 225 rebalance for September 2025 is now finalised as regards liquidity data and capping. But we don't know what sensitivity the index...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2025): Potential Adds, Deletes, PAF, Capping & Other Changes

With the review period nearly complete, we expect 1-2 changes for the NKY in September. The Kokusai Electric placement improves inclusion odds. No...

Brian Freitas

Shift 3Q: OP Beat with Upgrade to Guidance; Share Price on a Recovery

​Market overreacted to Shift's earnings with 10% drop. 3Q is an off-season for Shift, however, earnings were decent. Share price has started to...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 11th): Fast Retailing, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Sanrio

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Market overreacted to Shift's earnings with 10% drop. 3Q is an off-season for Shift, however, earnings were decent. Share price has started to...