Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn</li>
<li>Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate</li>
<li>We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm</li>
</ul>


We update Klarna’s pre-IPO valuation based on recent private share transactions and that of Stripe; Indian payments company Pine Labs is reputedly looking for an IPO valuation of USD6bn
Our 2H24 recommended shares performance was suboptimal; only two of our four longs delivered gains, and our short’s share price was strong in the “risk on” investor climate
We downgrade Shift4 to neutral, keeping PagSeguro as our core value pick along with European value play Nexi and US megacap Visa; we keep our sell rating on Affirm


Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Shift4 Payments reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing both its achievements and areas that need improvement.</li><li>The company set quarterly records for several key performance indicators (KPIs), including volume, gross revenue less network fees, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow.</li><li>The adjusted EBITDA margin reached a new quarterly high of 51.3%, or nearly 54% excluding impacts from recent acquisitions.</li></ul>

Shift4 Payments reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing both its achievements and areas that need improvement.The company set quarterly records for several key performance indicators (KPIs), including volume, gross revenue less network fees, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow.The adjusted EBITDA margin reached a new quarterly high of 51.3%, or nearly 54% excluding impacts from recent acquisitions.

Shift4 Payments: International Expansion in Strategic Markets & Other Major Drivers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Shift4 is an integrated payments processor offering basic payments and gateway services, as well as value-added software solutions</li><li>Despite above-market organic growth, Shift4 is trading at a discount compared to peers due to M&amp;A activity and complex reporting</li><li>Founder has potential to lead a management buyout at current valuation levels, presenting a compelling investment opportunity with strong growth potential and strategic value.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Shift4 is an integrated payments processor offering basic payments and gateway services, as well as value-added software solutionsDespite above-market organic growth, Shift4 is trading at a discount compared to peers due to M&amp;A activity and complex reportingFounder has potential to lead a management buyout at current valuation levels, presenting a compelling investment opportunity with strong growth potential and strategic value.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) - Thursday, Aug 8, 2024

<ul><li>Shift4 Payments reported its second quarter results for 2024, reflecting robust growth in several key financial metrics, driven by strategic acquisitions and a significant expansion across various verticals both domestically and internationally.</li><li>The company showcased impressive growth in end-to-end payment volume, ascending by 50% year-over-year.</li><li>Gross profit increased by 38%, and gross revenue led by network fees grew by 41%.</li></ul>

Shift4 Payments reported its second quarter results for 2024, reflecting robust growth in several key financial metrics, driven by strategic acquisitions and a significant expansion across various verticals both domestically and internationally.The company showcased impressive growth in end-to-end payment volume, ascending by 50% year-over-year.Gross profit increased by 38%, and gross revenue led by network fees grew by 41%.

Shift4 Payments Inc.: Focus on Organic Growth and Diverse Offerings & Other Major Drivers

United States

Shift4 Payments, Inc. provides payment processing solutions. The Company offers software for transaction and money transfer activities. Shift4 Payments serves customers in the United States.

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Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Shift4 Payments: International Expansion in Strategic Markets & Other Major Drivers

Shift4 Payments reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing both its achievements and areas that need...

Baptista Research

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) - Thursday, Aug 8, 2024

Shift4 is an integrated payments processor offering basic payments and gateway services, as well as value-added software solutions

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Shift4 Payments Inc.: Focus on Organic Growth and Diverse Offerings & Other Major Drivers

Shift4 Payments reported its second quarter results for 2024, reflecting robust growth in several key financial metrics, driven by strategic...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Payment Companies – Key Picks and Potential IPOs in Focus

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. ​Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...

Victor Galliano

Shift4 Payments: International Expansion in Strategic Markets & Other Major Drivers

Shift4 Payments reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, emphasizing both its achievements and areas that need...

Baptista Research

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Shift4 Payments Inc (FOUR) - Thursday, Aug 8, 2024

Shift4 is an integrated payments processor offering basic payments and gateway services, as well as value-added software solutions

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Shift4 Payments Inc.: Focus on Organic Growth and Diverse Offerings & Other Major Drivers

Shift4 Payments reported its second quarter results for 2024, reflecting robust growth in several key financial metrics, driven by strategic...

Baptista Research

PagSeguro is our core value pick, Nexi and Visa are also buys, Affirm still rated a sell, Shift4 is now neutral. Updated Klarna and Stripe pre-IPO...