Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

<ul>
<li>The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. </li>
<li>The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.</li>
<li>The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.</li>
</ul>


The apparel/fashion sector made a partial recovery last year but was still down on 2019. 2022 looks a lot brighter with customers now back in stores including even inbound tourists. 
The same challenges that the sector faced before Covid remain but there is plenty of room to grow by taking share from the less innovative competitors – i.e. more consolidation.
The sector saw the highest fall in store numbers in its history last year, but there was more investment in creating a compelling omnichannel model suited to Japan’s particular market.


Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

<ul>
<li>Low demand and slightly higher unemployment during the pandemic dampened the rising cost of part-time employees but that short respite is now over. </li>
<li>Hourly wages hit a new high in August and are set to rise further in coming months, renewing pressure on sectors like hospitality, retailing and logistics.</li>
<li>Retailers with high ratios of part-time wages such as the 100 Yen retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seria-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12989:1" rel="noopener">Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP)</a> and apparel retailers, will be hit particularly hard.</li>
</ul>


Low demand and slightly higher unemployment during the pandemic dampened the rising cost of part-time employees but that short respite is now over. 
Hourly wages hit a new high in August and are set to rise further in coming months, renewing pressure on sectors like hospitality, retailing and logistics.
Retailers with high ratios of part-time wages such as the 100 Yen retailers like Seria Co Ltd (2782 JP) and apparel retailers, will be hit particularly hard.


New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Japan

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

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Shimamura (8227 JP)

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Japan's Apparel/Fashion Sector Big Review: Momentum Builds for Full Recovery

Japan's fashion and apparel sector was severely hit by the pandemic and the loss of tourism. With wallets full, Japanese are now spending again...

Michael Causton

New Highs for Part-Time Wages a Worry for Japan's Retailers

Wage growth slowed during the pandemic in Japan but is now relentlessly on the rise again. Retailers in particular are vulnerable, especially those...

Michael Causton

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

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