'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>STAYIN' HOME</strong> - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP),</a> both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16460:1" rel="noopener">Asahi (3333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> being Monday's examples.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>13 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
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<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 2 Positive / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>:-6.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><br>6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4</li>
</ul>
</div>



Source • Japan Analytics
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM (3050 JP) and Keiyo (8168 JP), both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with Shimamura (8227 JP), Asahi (3333 JP), and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) being Monday's examples.


DAILY STATS


13 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-6.2

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt




 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions



Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/647/original/2020-03-31_04-53-29.png?1585598052" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125647"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>MONDAY 30th MARCH</strong> - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyfull-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17505:1" rel="noopener">Joyfull (9942 JP)</a></strong>restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was <strong>6:12</strong>, with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mochida-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3655:1" rel="noopener">Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)</a></strong>being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the <strong>Utilities</strong> Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth <strong>¥200b</strong> intervention represented <strong>6.3%</strong> of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.      </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsMONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making Joyfull (9942 JP)restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:12, with Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP) and Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the Utilities Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth ¥200b intervention represented 6.3% of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.      

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>As shown in Part I of our review, the apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online channel.</p>
<p>However, retailers with fresh ideas and strong marketing to back them up continue to outperform, a reminder that the Japanese fashion market is perennially dynamic and adapts to new market realities. The winners include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> and Baycrews.</p>
<p><strong>This is Part II of a 2-part review of Japan's apparel and fashion markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-fashion-market-review-2019-part-i-a-stable-market-but-tougher-trading-all-round" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I of our review is here</a> and has a macro review of retailers by format in 2018-19 as well as sales rankings of the top 100 apparel retailers, market share trends by format and profitability rankings.</strong></p>

As shown in Part I of our review, the apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online channel.
However, retailers with fresh ideas and strong marketing to back them up continue to outperform, a reminder that the Japanese fashion market is perennially dynamic and adapts to new market realities. The winners include Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP),Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) and Baycrews.
This is Part II of a 2-part review of Japan's apparel and fashion markets. Part I of our review is here and has a macro review of retailers by format in 2018-19 as well as sales rankings of the top 100 apparel retailers, market share trends by format and profitability rankings.

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part II: Winners & Losers and Key Business Trends

<p>The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online channel.</p>
<p>The large store formats suffered the worst but a number of major specialty chains also posted lower sales. In e-commerce, even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> suffered its lowest sales growth in several years.</p>
<p>The reasons are clear: consumption of apparel fell again last year while other categories like home interiors, food and communications rose.</p>
<p>At the same time, the leading specialty retailers face saturation in some product categories and territories. As a result, e-commerce share continues to grow as does that of the biggest firms – the top 10 apparel retailers saw their share increase 3 points in a year to 30%.</p>
<p><strong>This is Part I of a 2-part review of Japan's apparel and fashion markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/winners-losers-and-key-business-trends-in-japanese-fashion-retailing-2018-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part II of our review is here</a> and has profiles of the winners in 2018-19 and key trends impacting performance now and going forward.</strong></p>

The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online channel.
The large store formats suffered the worst but a number of major specialty chains also posted lower sales. In e-commerce, even ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) suffered its lowest sales growth in several years.
The reasons are clear: consumption of apparel fell again last year while other categories like home interiors, food and communications rose.
At the same time, the leading specialty retailers face saturation in some product categories and territories. As a result, e-commerce share continues to grow as does that of the biggest firms – the top 10 apparel retailers saw their share increase 3 points in a year to 30%.
This is Part I of a 2-part review of Japan's apparel and fashion markets. Part II of our review is here and has profiles of the winners in 2018-19 and key trends impacting performance now and going forward.

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part I: A Stable Market but Tougher Trading All Round

<p>The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-review-and-ranking-2018-19-profit-growth-slowing-as-competition-increases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.</a></p>

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners and losers. In an accompanying Insight, we provide an overview of retail performance for the entire sector in 2018-19 by sales, profits and margins.

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

Japan

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

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Shimamura (8227 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part II: Winners & Losers and Key Business Trends

As shown in Part I of our review, the apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher...

Michael Causton

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part I: A Stable Market but Tougher Trading All Round

The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Highlights 2018-19: Sector by Sector and Winners in Each Sector

The following provides a snapshot guide to the performance of all the main retail sectors in Japan in 2018-19 sector by sector including winners...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)