Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba</li>
<li>Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability</li>
<li>Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies</li>
</ul>


A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba
Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability
Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies


Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

<ul>
<li>News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.</li>
<li>Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.</li>
<li>Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.</li>
</ul>


News Intel may be looking to restructure and even sell its fab business, a slight negative for Japanese SPE suppliers.
Japan upping defence budget to a record high a positive for related names, including KHI which has been excessively weak on the news it fabricated data for marine engine business.
Nikkei Inc. is expected to announce results for 30th September rebalance today or tomorrow which may see big buying for the likes of Ryohin Keikaku, NRI and possibly one other.


Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Dow loses over 500 points, its biggest daily loss in over 10 months, as Treasury yields surged 14bps to 4.3%</li>
<li>Shimano announces disappointing 2024 earnings guidance, well short of street estimates. Perhaps time to do more on capital allocation</li>
<li>Sapporo looks like it is bowing to pressure from activist, 3D Partners, regarding a potential sale of non-core real estate</li>
</ul>


Dow loses over 500 points, its biggest daily loss in over 10 months, as Treasury yields surged 14bps to 4.3%
Shimano announces disappointing 2024 earnings guidance, well short of street estimates. Perhaps time to do more on capital allocation
Sapporo looks like it is bowing to pressure from activist, 3D Partners, regarding a potential sale of non-core real estate


Ohayo Japan | Inflation Hits Stocks; Shimano Hits a Pothole

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.
JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan
DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

Japan

SHIMANO INC. manufactures and sells products for bicycling, snowboarding, and fishing.  The Company's products include running gears and brake parts for bicycles and rods, reels, and tackles for fishing.  The Company manufactures golf related products as well.  Shimano mainly exports to Asia, Europe, and the United States.

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Shimano Inc (7309 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan | Inflation Hits Stocks; Shimano Hits a Pothole

Dow plunges 500 points on surging Treasury yields. Shimano's weak earnings guidance prompts capital allocation concerns. Sapporo may sell non-core...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

CPI leaves markets confused, but Beta and cycliclals bid anwyay. Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP...

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

​Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Record Defense Budget and Nikkei Rebalance Set to Boost Related Stocks

​News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....

Andrew Jackson

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan | Inflation Hits Stocks; Shimano Hits a Pothole

​Dow plunges 500 points on surging Treasury yields. Shimano's weak earnings guidance prompts capital allocation concerns. Sapporo may sell non-core...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

CPI leaves markets confused, but Beta and cycliclals bid anwyay. Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP...

Mark Chadwick

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

News Intel may restructure/sell fab business, negative for Japanese SPE suppliers. Japan defense budget increase positive for related names....

Dow plunges 500 points on surging Treasury yields. Shimano's weak earnings guidance prompts capital allocation concerns. Sapporo may sell non-core...