Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid</li>
<li>1Q operating profit beat the analyst consensus, but the upward revision to full year is minor and falls short of street estimates</li>
<li>The stock has priced in an improving outlook. However, valuations are now looking full compared to historical levels. </li>
</ul>


Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid
1Q operating profit beat the analyst consensus, but the upward revision to full year is minor and falls short of street estimates
The stock has priced in an improving outlook. However, valuations are now looking full compared to historical levels. 


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Dow loses over 500 points, its biggest daily loss in over 10 months, as Treasury yields surged 14bps to 4.3%</li>
<li>Shimano announces disappointing 2024 earnings guidance, well short of street estimates. Perhaps time to do more on capital allocation</li>
<li>Sapporo looks like it is bowing to pressure from activist, 3D Partners, regarding a potential sale of non-core real estate</li>
</ul>


Dow loses over 500 points, its biggest daily loss in over 10 months, as Treasury yields surged 14bps to 4.3%
Shimano announces disappointing 2024 earnings guidance, well short of street estimates. Perhaps time to do more on capital allocation
Sapporo looks like it is bowing to pressure from activist, 3D Partners, regarding a potential sale of non-core real estate


Ohayo Japan | Inflation Hits Stocks; Shimano Hits a Pothole

<ul>
<li>Shimano Q3 results show a 32% YoY net sales decline, led by a 38% drop in bike component sales, BUT both sales and profit beat expectations</li>
<li>The company maintains cost control, sees improving gross margins, and reduces inventories, while cash flow and balance sheet remain strong</li>
<li>With the upward revision in full-year guidance, we believe the market will look through the still challenging Q4 outlook and focus instead on 2024 normalization and relatively low valuation</li>
</ul>


Shimano Q3 results show a 32% YoY net sales decline, led by a 38% drop in bike component sales, BUT both sales and profit beat expectations
The company maintains cost control, sees improving gross margins, and reduces inventories, while cash flow and balance sheet remain strong
With the upward revision in full-year guidance, we believe the market will look through the still challenging Q4 outlook and focus instead on 2024 normalization and relatively low valuation


<ul>
<li>Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%</li>
<li>We believe that sales in 2023 have simply reverted back to trend. We expect sales to grow in 2024 as underlying demand drivers remain intact</li>
<li>With the stock down 9% over the past year, we believe the market has discounted the profit revision. We see good value at 17x EV/EBIT</li>
</ul>


Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%
We believe that sales in 2023 have simply reverted back to trend. We expect sales to grow in 2024 as underlying demand drivers remain intact
With the stock down 9% over the past year, we believe the market has discounted the profit revision. We see good value at 17x EV/EBIT


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX close flat and keeps the 4100 support; CPI inline but Rates higher; USD stronger as Fed Hawks back out; Telsa +7% Bullish Initiation; Boeing Again-massive India order.
JAPAN.  Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 133. 15;  BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP print, don't expect much chg ST; Massive ShareBuyback  from  Idemetsu Kosan
DAILY NUGGET. Global EV Sales in 2022  was $388 billion, +58%YoY. Is this what it will take to get to Japanese OEM to step on the gas ?


Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

Japan

SHIMANO INC. manufactures and sells products for bicycling, snowboarding, and fishing.  The Company's products include running gears and brake parts for bicycles and rods, reels, and tackles for fishing.  The Company manufactures golf related products as well.  Shimano mainly exports to Asia, Europe, and the United States.

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Shimano Inc (7309 JP)

Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear

Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid. Upward revision to full year operating profit and a small...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | Inflation Hits Stocks; Shimano Hits a Pothole

Dow plunges 500 points on surging Treasury yields. Shimano's weak earnings guidance prompts capital allocation concerns. Sapporo may sell non-core...

Mark Chadwick

Shimano (7309) | A Clear Road Ahead

Shimano Q3 results: Net sales decline, but beat expectations. Cost control, improving margins, and strong balance sheet. We turn bullish on...

Mark Chadwick

Shimano (7309) | The Hangover

Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%. We remain bullish as long-term consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

CPI leaves markets confused, but Beta and cycliclals bid anwyay. Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear

Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid. Upward revision to full year operating profit and a small...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | Inflation Hits Stocks; Shimano Hits a Pothole

​Dow plunges 500 points on surging Treasury yields. Shimano's weak earnings guidance prompts capital allocation concerns. Sapporo may sell non-core...

Mark Chadwick

Shimano (7309) | A Clear Road Ahead

​Shimano Q3 results: Net sales decline, but beat expectations. Cost control, improving margins, and strong balance sheet. We turn bullish on...

Mark Chadwick

Shimano (7309) | The Hangover

Shimano reported Q1 results post close. Operating profit fell 26% YoY and full year guidance was cut 21%. We remain bullish as long-term consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |SPX Holds Key 4100 Level in Choppy Session Post CPI; EVs-Where Are the Japanese?

CPI leaves markets confused, but Beta and cycliclals bid anwyay. Nikkei Futures +0.5% vs Cash; BOJ Governor designate nominated but with weak GDP...

Mark Chadwick

Dow plunges 500 points on surging Treasury yields. Shimano's weak earnings guidance prompts capital allocation concerns. Sapporo may sell non-core...

Shimano Q3 results: Net sales decline, but beat expectations. Cost control, improving margins, and strong balance sheet. We turn bullish on...