Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba</li>
<li>Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability</li>
<li>Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies</li>
</ul>


A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba
Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability
Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies


Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.</li>
<li>Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.</li>
<li>With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.</li>
</ul>


The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.
Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.
With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.


EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.7% this week, closing at 37,913 points, due to political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election, rising global bond yields, and disappointing economic data</li>
<li>Japan's weakening services and manufacturing sectors, as indicated by declining PMIs and easing inflation, highlight slowing domestic demand and economic uncertainty, raising concerns about future growth prospects.</li>
<li>Konica Minolta (4902): Gained 25% after activist investor, Effissimo Capital, declared a significant 5.8% stake in the company.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.7% this week, closing at 37,913 points, due to political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election, rising global bond yields, and disappointing economic data
Japan's weakening services and manufacturing sectors, as indicated by declining PMIs and easing inflation, highlight slowing domestic demand and economic uncertainty, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
Konica Minolta (4902): Gained 25% after activist investor, Effissimo Capital, declared a significant 5.8% stake in the company.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

<ul>
<li>Markets back to risk-on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam, and UPS.</li>
<li>Strong US new home sales data and good earnings for CBRE sets a positive tone for R/E.</li>
<li>Good Siltronics numbers yesterday a positive read for wafer makers Sumco and Shin-Etsu ahead of numbers today.</li>
</ul>


Markets back to risk-on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam, and UPS.
Strong US new home sales data and good earnings for CBRE sets a positive tone for R/E.
Good Siltronics numbers yesterday a positive read for wafer makers Sumco and Shin-Etsu ahead of numbers today.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

<ul>
<li>New highs for Intuitive Surgical on the success on its Da Vinci surgical robot sets a good tone for Sysmex.</li>
<li>R/E related plays including homebuilders jumping with Blackstone +8% in 2-sessions Thurs/Fri.</li>
<li>Recruit is rapidly running out of buyback bullets, and while it may reload it is priced to perfection and is looking vulnerable to correction.</li>
</ul>


New highs for Intuitive Surgical on the success on its Da Vinci surgical robot sets a good tone for Sysmex.
R/E related plays including homebuilders jumping with Blackstone +8% in 2-sessions Thurs/Fri.
Recruit is rapidly running out of buyback bullets, and while it may reload it is priced to perfection and is looking vulnerable to correction.


Japan Morning Connection: Recruit's 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Markets risk on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam and UPS. Positive tone for R/E after strong US home sales data and for wafer makers such as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Recruit's 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

Intuitive Surgical's success with Da Vinci robot sets good tone for Sysmex; R/E related surge with Blackstone; Recruit's buyback potential may be...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

​Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

​Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

​Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Markets risk on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam and UPS. Positive tone for R/E after strong US home sales data and for wafer makers such as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Recruit's 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

​Intuitive Surgical's success with Da Vinci robot sets good tone for Sysmex; R/E related surge with Blackstone; Recruit's buyback potential may be...

Andrew Jackson

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Intuitive Surgical's success with Da Vinci robot sets good tone for Sysmex; R/E related surge with Blackstone; Recruit's buyback potential may be...