Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The best ROIC in the wafer group (14.5%) does not trade at the best multiple — the PVC business imposes a conglomerate discount; the silicon recovery removes the justification.</li>
<li>FY2025's 14.4% profit fall was two independent cycle troughs — Asian PVC and wafer destocking — arriving simultaneously; Q1 FY2026 confirmed both are passing, management calls supply constrained.</li>
<li>Initiating BULLISH, fair value ¥7,300 (11.5x FY2027E EBITDA); 14.4% capital upside plus 2.0% yield; 23 October H1 result is the catalyst to quantify the Electronics Materials recovery.</li>
</ul>


The best ROIC in the wafer group (14.5%) does not trade at the best multiple — the PVC business imposes a conglomerate discount; the silicon recovery removes the justification.
FY2025's 14.4% profit fall was two independent cycle troughs — Asian PVC and wafer destocking — arriving simultaneously; Q1 FY2026 confirmed both are passing, management calls supply constrained.
Initiating BULLISH, fair value ¥7,300 (11.5x FY2027E EBITDA); 14.4% capital upside plus 2.0% yield; 23 October H1 result is the catalyst to quantify the Electronics Materials recovery.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): Japan's Best Wafer Asset, Priced as a Chemicals Stock

Independent Fund Manager, Swaen Capital

Swaen Capital

Independent Fund Manager

Swaen Capital is a Singapore based licensed independent fund manager with an open architecture, a non bias financial platform creating access to the best custodians and investment managers. Our focus lies within the wealth management business, covering client relationships, financial planning, advisory, as well as discretionary portfolio management. We have developed strategic alliances with other leading independent firms to complement and extend our offerings to clients (global hedge fund research capability, alternative investment offerings, corporate finance, fund structuring & administration, etc). Our know-how, extensive global network and long standing presence in Asia allows us to provide a global footprint and at the same time enables us to capitalize on regional opportunities.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).</li>
<li>Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.</li>
<li>Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.</li>
</ul>


The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).
Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.
Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.


Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China has responded to Japan's military rhetoric and actions by announcing a ban on all exports deemed dual-use for Japan's military, including rare earths.</li>
<li>China launched an anti-dumping probe into Dichlorosilane, a material primarily used in thin films for producing logic, memory, analog, and other types of chips.</li>
<li>The trade measures affect a broad range of Japan's industries, including automotive, chemicals, electronics, semiconductor equipment, chip-making materials, and robotics.  The U.S. response to tensions between China and Japan remains limited.</li>
</ul>


China has responded to Japan's military rhetoric and actions by announcing a ban on all exports deemed dual-use for Japan's military, including rare earths.
China launched an anti-dumping probe into Dichlorosilane, a material primarily used in thin films for producing logic, memory, analog, and other types of chips.
The trade measures affect a broad range of Japan's industries, including automotive, chemicals, electronics, semiconductor equipment, chip-making materials, and robotics.  The U.S. response to tensions between China and Japan remains limited.


Japan Trade: CHINA SAYS, "YOU MADE YOUR FUTON, NOW LIE IN IT!"

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors</li>
<li>After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.</li>
<li>We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD, PMIC, GaAs RF, gaming card, cooling system, semi equipment&amp;material, semi fab construction, memory, and foundry vendors but more y/y deterioration for WiFi and CMOS sensor vendors
After 6 vendors beating consensus, we might see AI server supply chain, large panel LCD driver, WiFi/networking, and NAND flash vendors in US to report a better than expected 1Q24.
We might see 8"/12" raw wafer (like Shin Etsu, SUMCO , National Silicon Industry, Siltronic AG) vendors in Japan, China, and Germany to report a worse than expected 1Q24.


Early Signs from the Reported March/1Q24 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider