Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> option implied volatility is stabilizing at an elevated level. This Insight analyses term structure, skew, open interest, and more.</li>
<li>We identify a tactical option opportunity that profits from the current volatility structure.</li>
<li>Are Consumer Price Index and Bank of Japan interest rate decision announcements systematically followed by unusually large market moves? We run the numbers. </li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) option implied volatility is stabilizing at an elevated level. This Insight analyses term structure, skew, open interest, and more.
We identify a tactical option opportunity that profits from the current volatility structure.
Are Consumer Price Index and Bank of Japan interest rate decision announcements systematically followed by unusually large market moves? We run the numbers. 


EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis - Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan set to tick higher with more cuts on the horizon and markets mostly unchanged after yesterdays holiday.</li>
<li>6758 Sony announced a ‘State of Play’ where it will showcase 20 upcoming PS5 and PS VR2 games from 3rd party studios a day ahead of the Tokyo Games Show.</li>
<li>Defence names may be in focus after Japan fighters fired flares at a Russian military plane which violated Japanese airspace three times off Hokkaido on Monday afternoon.</li>
</ul>


Japan set to tick higher with more cuts on the horizon and markets mostly unchanged after yesterdays holiday.
6758 Sony announced a ‘State of Play’ where it will showcase 20 upcoming PS5 and PS VR2 games from 3rd party studios a day ahead of the Tokyo Games Show.
Defence names may be in focus after Japan fighters fired flares at a Russian military plane which violated Japanese airspace three times off Hokkaido on Monday afternoon.


Japan Morning Connection: Watch Defence Names After Russian Violation

<ul>
<li>Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.</li>
<li>Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.</li>
</ul>


Don't expect initial 'sell the fact' reaction to Fed's best-case 50 bps cut to weigh on Japan, with a lot of money on the sidelines in Asia to be deployed.
Shin-Etsu via its PVC sub Shintech and the Japanese home builders with high US exposure continue to look attractive as rate cut plays.
Further US export controls for allies on chip making equipment are imminent and names with lower China sales ratios remain the safer SPE plays.


Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

<ul>
<li>US homebuilders outperformance after Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgages were at 18-month lows a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House.</li>
<li>Shin-Etsu should also see upside given its US PVC exposure, with the stock looking oversold after heavy foreigner selling MTD.</li>
<li>Shiseido's first new product launch in 4-years for 'Elixir' range, along with reports that its domestic business is picking up, may be enough to spark a squeeze off multi-year lows.</li>
</ul>


US homebuilders outperformance after Freddie Mac reported 30-year mortgages were at 18-month lows a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House.
Shin-Etsu should also see upside given its US PVC exposure, with the stock looking oversold after heavy foreigner selling MTD.
Shiseido's first new product launch in 4-years for 'Elixir' range, along with reports that its domestic business is picking up, may be enough to spark a squeeze off multi-year lows.


Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.</li>
<li>The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase.</li>
</ul>


During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.
Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.
The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase.


Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Japan

Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. produces and distributes synthetic resins and other chemical products such as fertilizers. The Company also manufactures electronic materials such as semiconductor silicon, synthetic, and rare earth quartz. Shin-Etsu Chemical operates in Japan and overseas.

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Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis - Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

Nikkei 225 option volatility stabilizes at high level. This Insight identifies a tactical opportunity and analyzes market moves after Bank of...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Watch Defence Names After Russian Violation

Japan's market set to rise, Sony to showcase upcoming games, and defense sector in focus after Japan fires flares at Russian plane violating...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

US homebuilders outperform despite low mortgage rates, a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House. Shin-Etsu should see upside given its...

Andrew Jackson

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis - Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

​Nikkei 225 option volatility stabilizes at high level. This Insight identifies a tactical opportunity and analyzes market moves after Bank of...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Watch Defence Names After Russian Violation

​Japan's market set to rise, Sony to showcase upcoming games, and defense sector in focus after Japan fires flares at Russian plane violating...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Market Expected to Recover After Fed Announcement

​Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Shiseido May Squeeze off the Lows

​US homebuilders outperform despite low mortgage rates, a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House. Shin-Etsu should see upside given its...

Andrew Jackson

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

Nikkei 225 option volatility stabilizes at high level. This Insight identifies a tactical opportunity and analyzes market moves after Bank of...

Japan's market set to rise, Sony to showcase upcoming games, and defense sector in focus after Japan fires flares at Russian plane violating...

Japan expected to recover this morning after Fed announcement. Japanese home builders continue to look attractive. Companies with lower China...

US homebuilders outperform despite low mortgage rates, a positive for Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House. Shin-Etsu should see upside given its...