Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the large tender offer in late 2021, SBI was always going to try to take Shinsei Bank private. Now they have launched their deal at ¥2,800/share. </li>
<li>That is below fair according to the Board, Special Committee, and implicitly to SBI. But the Shinsei Board has recommended shareholders tender so The Government will vote to squeeze out. </li>
<li>I expect some upset, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end in my opinion. Not the front end.</li>
</ul>


After the large tender offer in late 2021, SBI was always going to try to take Shinsei Bank private. Now they have launched their deal at ¥2,800/share. 
That is below fair according to the Board, Special Committee, and implicitly to SBI. But the Shinsei Board has recommended shareholders tender so The Government will vote to squeeze out. 
I expect some upset, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end in my opinion. Not the front end.


SBI Launches Opportunistic, Unfair Offer for Shinsei (8303) And Shinsei Board Drops the Ball

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s unit SBI Regional Bank Holdings KK (SBI 地銀ホールディングス株式会社) today <a href="https://www.sbigroup.co.jp/english/news/pdf/2022/1011_a_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received FSA authorisation to turn the company into a Bank Holding Company.  </li>
<li>There are some technicalities involved. SBI announced it would buy 2.5mm shares of Shinsei on-market to get to 50.05% by end-March 2023. This will disappoint some, but...</li>
<li>I expect investors should continue to look at the big picture. Technicalities are technicalities. Strategy is strategy. The big picture is unchanged and there isn't <em>that</em> much room to manoeuvre. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s unit SBI Regional Bank Holdings KK (SBI 地銀ホールディングス株式会社) today announced it had received FSA authorisation to turn the company into a Bank Holding Company.  
There are some technicalities involved. SBI announced it would buy 2.5mm shares of Shinsei on-market to get to 50.05% by end-March 2023. This will disappoint some, but...
I expect investors should continue to look at the big picture. Technicalities are technicalities. Strategy is strategy. The big picture is unchanged and there isn't that much room to manoeuvre. 


SBI Obtains Approval - Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei - It Isn't Strategic, It's Technical

<ul>
<li>The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan, which owns 23.3% of voting rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> asked both SBI and Shinsei to provide answers to questions by 12 November</li>
<li>They both did on Friday and the answers were curiously lacklustre. If one of the two 'won' it may have been SBI. But we don't know what DICJ will do.</li>
<li>In other news, Shinsei reported results and a famous activist announced a 5+% stake.</li>
</ul>


The Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan, which owns 23.3% of voting rights in Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) asked both SBI and Shinsei to provide answers to questions by 12 November
They both did on Friday and the answers were curiously lacklustre. If one of the two 'won' it may have been SBI. But we don't know what DICJ will do.
In other news, Shinsei reported results and a famous activist announced a 5+% stake.


SBI and Shinsei Responses to the DICJ and an Activist Joins the Party

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> takeout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> was opportunistic - done at a price SBI Shinsei's Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.</li>
<li>I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. </li>
<li>Activist Murakami-san's S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Holdings (8473 JP) takeout of SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was opportunistic - done at a price SBI Shinsei's Board considered not reasonable. Until it changed its mind.
I had thought appraisal rights a great trade. I also thought it a good trade to own the back end, but that involved one holder putting ¥55bn on the table. 
Activist Murakami-san's S Grant Corporation has done that. It will own one share of 8 post-consolidation on Monday. They are now equal shareholders with the govt entities.  Wow.


Murakami-San's Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI's Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

<ul>
<li>The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> was completed about four weeks ago, and in something of a surprise, only 3.7% of 26.98% minority holdings tendered.</li>
<li>The stock traded above terms every day during the Tender Offer Period. People accumulated in order to pursue their appraisal rights later. That is big. </li>
<li>This week, SBI Shinsei announced the schedule of dates relating to the squeezeout EGM. The record date was early. The reverse stock split announced is as expected, <em>possibly</em> game-able.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) was completed about four weeks ago, and in something of a surprise, only 3.7% of 26.98% minority holdings tendered.
The stock traded above terms every day during the Tender Offer Period. People accumulated in order to pursue their appraisal rights later. That is big. 
This week, SBI Shinsei announced the schedule of dates relating to the squeezeout EGM. The record date was early. The reverse stock split announced is as expected, possibly game-able.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

Japan

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)

SBI Launches Opportunistic, Unfair Offer for Shinsei (8303) And Shinsei Board Drops the Ball

SBI Holdings has announced a Tender Offer for Shinsei Bank, to take out minorities, with a goal to pay the government back quickly. Therein lies...

Travis Lundy

SBI Obtains Approval - Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei - It Isn't Strategic, It's Technical

SBI today announced it had received Bank Holding Company approval. To do that, it needs 50+% of votes in Shinsei. Some will misunderstand the news....

Travis Lundy

SBI and Shinsei Responses to the DICJ and an Activist Joins the Party

SBI & Shinsei both responded to the DICJ's questions, and curiously both come up with similar March 2025 profit expectations. It's not clear how...

Travis Lundy

Murakami-San's Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI's Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

SBI's takeover of SBI Shinsei Bank was opportunistic - too cheap, but the govt holding format held weakness. One could fight via appraisal rights...

Travis Lundy

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

The Shinsei EGM is on 1 Sep. The vote SHOULD BE a foregone conclusion. It will be interesting to see the detailed results (which may take a few...

Travis Lundy

SBI Launches Opportunistic, Unfair Offer for Shinsei (8303) And Shinsei Board Drops the Ball

SBI Holdings has announced a Tender Offer for Shinsei Bank, to take out minorities, with a goal to pay the government back quickly. Therein lies...

Travis Lundy

SBI Obtains Approval - Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei - It Isn't Strategic, It's Technical

SBI today announced it had received Bank Holding Company approval. To do that, it needs 50+% of votes in Shinsei. Some will misunderstand the news....

Travis Lundy

SBI and Shinsei Responses to the DICJ and an Activist Joins the Party

SBI & Shinsei both responded to the DICJ's questions, and curiously both come up with similar March 2025 profit expectations. It's not clear how...

Travis Lundy

Murakami-San's Masterful Maneuvering to Stymy SBI's Shysterish Shinsei Squeezeout

​SBI's takeover of SBI Shinsei Bank was opportunistic - too cheap, but the govt holding format held weakness. One could fight via appraisal rights...

Travis Lundy

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303) Calls Its EGM and Appraisal Rights Seekers Prepare for Battle

The Shinsei EGM is on 1 Sep. The vote SHOULD BE a foregone conclusion. It will be interesting to see the detailed results (which may take a few...

Travis Lundy

SBI's takeover of SBI Shinsei Bank was opportunistic - too cheap, but the govt holding format held weakness. One could fight via appraisal rights...