Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.</li>
<li>Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. </li>
</ul>


This is a follow-up to our initial report on the APAC Luxury Industry where we were of the belief that small niches within the luxury sector could offer potential opportunities.
Below, we analyse the recent trends in luxury travel on Minor International (MINT TB), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).
While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing signs of improvement. 


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s profit-first restructuring, including ¥25B cost cuts and SKU rationalization, lowers break-even levels, supporting operating margin recovery toward 7% by 2026 and 10% longer-term.</li>
<li>Strategic pivot toward prestige skincare strengthens pricing power and stability, positioning Shiseido to capitalize on Asia-Pacific demand while competitors face integration risks and category distractions.</li>
<li>Despite risks from China exposure, travel retail weakness, and intensified competition, successful execution could drive earnings recovery and valuation re-rating toward ¥4,000 fair value estimate.</li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s profit-first restructuring, including ¥25B cost cuts and SKU rationalization, lowers break-even levels, supporting operating margin recovery toward 7% by 2026 and 10% longer-term.
Strategic pivot toward prestige skincare strengthens pricing power and stability, positioning Shiseido to capitalize on Asia-Pacific demand while competitors face integration risks and category distractions.
Despite risks from China exposure, travel retail weakness, and intensified competition, successful execution could drive earnings recovery and valuation re-rating toward ¥4,000 fair value estimate.


Shiseido (4911) | Margin Recovery Driving Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.</li>
<li>Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&amp;A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.</li>
<li>Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.</li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.
Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&amp;A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.
Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.


Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  </li>
<li>In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. </li>
<li>Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  </li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  


Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Shiseido (4911) | Margin Recovery Driving Re-Rating Potential

Shiseido's profit-focused restructuring and pivot to prestige skincare could drive operating margin recovery and earnings growth, positioning the...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive

Shiseido's Q3 revenue up 4.6% YoY, but full-year sales guidance cut 3% due to tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness. Cost savings and efficiency...

Mark Chadwick

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: The Growth of Luxury Travel Unmatched by Dull Share Prices

While travel has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, Shiseido's Travel Retail struggles, yet Minor International and Mandarin Oriental are showing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Shiseido (4911) | Margin Recovery Driving Re-Rating Potential

​Shiseido's profit-focused restructuring and pivot to prestige skincare could drive operating margin recovery and earnings growth, positioning the...

Mark Chadwick

Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive

​Shiseido's Q3 revenue up 4.6% YoY, but full-year sales guidance cut 3% due to tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness. Cost savings and efficiency...

Mark Chadwick

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

​Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

Shiseido's profit-focused restructuring and pivot to prestige skincare could drive operating margin recovery and earnings growth, positioning the...

Shiseido's Q3 revenue up 4.6% YoY, but full-year sales guidance cut 3% due to tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness. Cost savings and efficiency...

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.