Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  </li>
<li>In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. </li>
<li>Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  </li>
</ul>


Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  


Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Amazon down -11% AH after its capex guidance seen as unjustified in light of earnings.</li>
<li>ARM makes a surprise turn around on DC upside...watch Softbank.</li>
<li>Estee lauder -19% with numbers not good enough to justify rally. -ve Kose and Shiseido.</li>
</ul>


Amazon down -11% AH after its capex guidance seen as unjustified in light of earnings.
ARM makes a surprise turn around on DC upside...watch Softbank.
Estee lauder -19% with numbers not good enough to justify rally. -ve Kose and Shiseido.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>PM Sanae Takaichi's administration is steering Japan towards a more assertive role in the Indo-Pacific, backed by a week of high-profile diplomatic and defence announcements</li>
<li>Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's meeting with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon this week underscored the durability of the Japan-US alliance</li>
<li>Nvestor appetite for Japanese equities has strengthened on expectations that a decisive electoral mandate will unlock defence spending, infrastructure investment, and corporate reform</li>
</ul>


PM Sanae Takaichi's administration is steering Japan towards a more assertive role in the Indo-Pacific, backed by a week of high-profile diplomatic and defence announcements
Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's meeting with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon this week underscored the durability of the Japan-US alliance
Nvestor appetite for Japanese equities has strengthened on expectations that a decisive electoral mandate will unlock defence spending, infrastructure investment, and corporate reform


Japan Strategy Weekly | Blending Soft Charm with Hard Resolve

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It was reported that the Chinese government advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, which is likely to positively benefit the Korea in-bound tourism related stocks.</li>
<li>If the political tensions between China and Japan are not quickly resolved but continues to last, this would have further negative impact on the Japanese consumer/tourism/leisure related companies. </li>
<li>On the flip side, this could have a positive impact on the Korean consumer/tourism/leisure related companies such as Lotte Tour Development, Hotel Shilla, and Paradise. </li>
</ul>


It was reported that the Chinese government advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, which is likely to positively benefit the Korea in-bound tourism related stocks.
If the political tensions between China and Japan are not quickly resolved but continues to last, this would have further negative impact on the Japanese consumer/tourism/leisure related companies. 
On the flip side, this could have a positive impact on the Korean consumer/tourism/leisure related companies such as Lotte Tour Development, Hotel Shilla, and Paradise. 


China Advices Its Citizens to Refrain from Traveling to Japan - Beneficial Impact on Korea Tourism

<ul>
<li>Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.</li>
<li>China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.</li>
<li>Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.</li>
</ul>


Reports that Apple is set to release a touchscreen MacBook should help Nitto Denko.
China AI play Cambricon sees revs and OP surge, pointing to more upside for JP FA plays with Sino-semi exposure.
Luxury back in the spotlight may help Shiseido and Kose rebound off multi-month lows.


Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Japan

Shiseido Company, Limited manufactures cosmetic and toiletry products. The Company offers an array of makeup and skin-care products, toiletries, beauty salon, pharmaceuticals, foodstuffs, and fine chemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Shiseido Company (4911 JP)

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

The market has been quick to punish lavish spending on AI. Qualcomm's statement about the shortage of memory chips will be negative for names...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Blending Soft Charm with Hard Resolve

Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is taking a more assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific, with high-profile diplomatic and defence moves. Investor...

Mark Chadwick

China Advices Its Citizens to Refrain from Traveling to Japan - Beneficial Impact on Korea Tourism

Chinese government advising against travel to Japan could boost Korean tourism stocks, while prolonged tensions could harm Japanese companies.

Douglas Kim

Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Tech and AI lower in the US including Oracle despite releasing positive long term guidance. May see further upside for Shiseido and Kose if...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

​Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-Off Mood Continues, but Semi-Caps Pick up After Google Capex Surprise

The market has been quick to punish lavish spending on AI. Qualcomm's statement about the shortage of memory chips will be negative for names...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Blending Soft Charm with Hard Resolve

​Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is taking a more assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific, with high-profile diplomatic and defence moves. Investor...

Mark Chadwick

China Advices Its Citizens to Refrain from Traveling to Japan - Beneficial Impact on Korea Tourism

​Chinese government advising against travel to Japan could boost Korean tourism stocks, while prolonged tensions could harm Japanese companies.

Douglas Kim

Japan Morning Connection: LDP and Ishin May Sign a Pact to Pave the Way for Japan's First Female PM

Tech and AI lower in the US including Oracle despite releasing positive long term guidance. May see further upside for Shiseido and Kose if...

Andrew Jackson

Shiseido's stock may have crossed its 200-day MAV, but it lacks the criteria for a successful turnaround and may still be overpriced.

Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is taking a more assertive stance in the Indo-Pacific, with high-profile diplomatic and defence moves. Investor...

Chinese government advising against travel to Japan could boost Korean tourism stocks, while prolonged tensions could harm Japanese companies.