Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.</p>

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1132:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US)</a> entered into a definitive agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> for $335/share in cash or an enterprise value of $13.1B.</li>
<li>Offer price represents 4.7% premium over yesterday’s closing price or around 19% premium over the undisturbed price. The deal is expected to close by mid-2024.</li>
<li>With no product overlap and competition concern, the deal is expected to get regulatory approval. With reasonable deal valuation, shareholders approval is also expected.</li>
</ul>



Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ US) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) for $335/share in cash or an enterprise value of $13.1B.
Offer price represents 4.7% premium over yesterday’s closing price or around 19% premium over the undisturbed price. The deal is expected to close by mid-2024.
With no product overlap and competition concern, the deal is expected to get regulatory approval. With reasonable deal valuation, shareholders approval is also expected.


Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)’s Acquisition Offer

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axonics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36996:1" rel="noopener">Axonics (AXNX US)</a> believes that the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market is now worth of ~$800M, which is poised to double over the next five years to $1.6B.</li>
<li>The company has been reporting superior revenue growth since 2020. Axonics raised 2023 revenue guidance to $358M, up 32% YoY. The company has become adjusted EBITDA positive in 2022.</li>
<li>With superior product portfolio in terms of patient satisfaction, longer product life, and smaller size, Axonics is the stronger player in the U.S. duopoly sacral neuromodulation market.</li>
</ul>



Axonics (AXNX US) believes that the U.S. sacral neuromodulation market is now worth of ~$800M, which is poised to double over the next five years to $1.6B.
The company has been reporting superior revenue growth since 2020. Axonics raised 2023 revenue guidance to $358M, up 32% YoY. The company has become adjusted EBITDA positive in 2022.
With superior product portfolio in terms of patient satisfaction, longer product life, and smaller size, Axonics is the stronger player in the U.S. duopoly sacral neuromodulation market.


Axonics (AXNX US): Large Underserved Market And Superior Portfolio Ensure Multi-Year Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> reported better-than-expected Q1 results, due to continued geography expansion and strong demand of its IVL catheters for the treatment of coronary and peripheral artery diseases.</li>
<li>Shockwave projects 2023 revenue of $700–720M, which represents 43–47% YoY growth. This compares to previous 2023 revenue guidance of $660–680M.</li>
<li>According to a new media report, the acquisition talks between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boston-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11115:1" rel="noopener">Boston Scientific (BSX US)</a> and Shockwave have hit a snag as both the parties could not agree on a price.</li>
</ul>



Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) reported better-than-expected Q1 results, due to continued geography expansion and strong demand of its IVL catheters for the treatment of coronary and peripheral artery diseases.
Shockwave projects 2023 revenue of $700–720M, which represents 43–47% YoY growth. This compares to previous 2023 revenue guidance of $660–680M.
According to a new media report, the acquisition talks between Boston Scientific (BSX US) and Shockwave have hit a snag as both the parties could not agree on a price.


Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Beat-And-Raise 1Q23 Results; BSX Deal Reportedly Hit Roadblock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shockwave-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28730:1" rel="noopener">Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)</a> is reportedly drawing takeover interest from Boston Scientific. Shockwave can potentially be one of Boston Scientific's largest ever acquisitions. Probable pricing still offers upside potential.</li>
<li>Shockwave has an addressable market opportunity of $8.5 billion. The company has guided for 2023 revenue of $660–680 million, which represents 35–39% YoY growth.</li>
<li>Addition of Shockwave will bolster Boston Scientific’s cardiovascular portfolio. No official announcement has been made by any of the companies. There is no certainty they will lead to a deal.</li>
</ul>



Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US) is reportedly drawing takeover interest from Boston Scientific. Shockwave can potentially be one of Boston Scientific's largest ever acquisitions. Probable pricing still offers upside potential.
Shockwave has an addressable market opportunity of $8.5 billion. The company has guided for 2023 revenue of $660–680 million, which represents 35–39% YoY growth.
Addition of Shockwave will bolster Boston Scientific’s cardiovascular portfolio. No official announcement has been made by any of the companies. There is no certainty they will lead to a deal.


Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US): Initial Thought on Takeover Talk and Probable Pricing

United States

Shockwave Medical, Inc. manufactures medical devices. The Company offers intravascular devices and balloon dilatation catheters for patients with calcified cardiovascular disease. Shockwave Medical serves customers worldwide.

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Shockwave Medical Inc (SWAV US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research