Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopify-inc-de74469e-4678-489b-9b50-a80a5790c5ef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1" rel="noopener">Shopify Inc (SHOP US)</a> 's share price declined by -15% in after hours trade on weaker-than-expected US E-commerce trends</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> 's US business is highly correlated with its US peer, as is its stock price</li>
<li>A normalisation of e-commerce trends could also impact its much larger Japanese GMV as consumers shift spending patterns back to normal </li>
</ul>



Shopify Inc (SHOP US) 's share price declined by -15% in after hours trade on weaker-than-expected US E-commerce trends

Mercari Inc (4385 JP) 's US business is highly correlated with its US peer, as is its stock price
A normalisation of e-commerce trends could also impact its much larger Japanese GMV as consumers shift spending patterns back to normal 


Mercari (4385) | We Were Wrong…its Worse

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>During the #1 product and growth conference Amplify 2022 in Las Vegas, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amplitude-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34148:1" rel="noopener">Amplitude (AMPL US)</a>  introduced the Customer Data Platform (CDP) with integrated product analytics.  </li>
<li>The company expanded partner integration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snowflake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29254:1" rel="noopener">Snowflake Inc (SNOW US)</a>  to improve data connectivity while Amplitude Experiment sees strong traction with customers. </li>
<li>With shares down ~65% YTD, Amplitude has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite (-23%). Our PT is $28.00, implying ~14x EV/2022E revenue and ~10x EV/2023E revenue. </li>
</ul>


During the #1 product and growth conference Amplify 2022 in Las Vegas, Amplitude (AMPL US)  introduced the Customer Data Platform (CDP) with integrated product analytics.  
The company expanded partner integration with Snowflake Inc (SNOW US)  to improve data connectivity while Amplitude Experiment sees strong traction with customers. 
With shares down ~65% YTD, Amplitude has underperformed the Nasdaq Composite (-23%). Our PT is $28.00, implying ~14x EV/2022E revenue and ~10x EV/2023E revenue. 


Amplitude: Valuations Look Attractive and Growth Catalysts May Materialize in CY22

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Shopify’s stock has taken a beating along with the broader indices given the rate hike, bringing the company down to a more reasonable valuation.</li><li>Its first-quarter result was solid with revenue increasing by 22% to $1.2 billion, representing a two-year compound annual growth rate of 60%.</li><li>Overall, we remain bullish on their stock and give it a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Shopify’s stock has taken a beating along with the broader indices given the rate hike, bringing the company down to a more reasonable valuation.Its first-quarter result was solid with revenue increasing by 22% to $1.2 billion, representing a two-year compound annual growth rate of 60%.Overall, we remain bullish on their stock and give it a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price.

Shopify Inc.: Is The Market Leadership Here To Stay? Check Out The Key Drivers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freshworks-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34147:1" rel="noopener">Freshworks (FRSH US)</a>  upgraded its revenue guidance to ~$502M at the top end for FY22 and reported a 42% year-over-year revenue growth rate in 1QFY22. </li>
<li>We were impressed with subscription revenue growth, lower-than-expected loss, customer expansion, and efficient SaaS metrics. </li>
<li>We analyzed multiples of 50 publicly listed software companies with various growth profiles and split SaaS/Fintech companies into four growth groups.</li>
</ul>



Freshworks (FRSH US)  upgraded its revenue guidance to ~$502M at the top end for FY22 and reported a 42% year-over-year revenue growth rate in 1QFY22. 
We were impressed with subscription revenue growth, lower-than-expected loss, customer expansion, and efficient SaaS metrics. 
We analyzed multiples of 50 publicly listed software companies with various growth profiles and split SaaS/Fintech companies into four growth groups.


Freshworks: Solid 1Q and Strong Outlook Despite Delays With Closing Deals in Europe

<ul>
<li>Fintech unicorn could report strong earnings results for FY Q3 2022. Total revenue increased by 54% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to ~$55M for the reporting period.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/affirm-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31038:1" rel="noopener">Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)</a>  closed a $500M revolving ABS deal and added $2.5B in new funding capacity from various partners. Total funding capacity was ~$9B, marking a 55% YoY increase.  </li>
<li>Sovereign wealth fund GIC Singapore acquired ~$126 million worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/affirm-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31038:1" rel="noopener">Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)</a>  shares in April at an average of <strong>$33.00</strong> per share.</li>
</ul>


Fintech unicorn could report strong earnings results for FY Q3 2022. Total revenue increased by 54% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to ~$55M for the reporting period.

Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)  closed a $500M revolving ABS deal and added $2.5B in new funding capacity from various partners. Total funding capacity was ~$9B, marking a 55% YoY increase.  
Sovereign wealth fund GIC Singapore acquired ~$126 million worth of Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)  shares in April at an average of $33.00 per share.


Affirm Raises Outlook For FY 2022: No Changes In Bullish Narrative

Canada

Shopify Inc. provides a cloud-based commerce platform. The Company offers a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand. Shopify serves customers in Canada.

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Shopify (SHOP US)

Mercari (4385) | We Were Wrong…its Worse

We are Bearish on Mercari as we think GMV in the US will see a sharp pullback as early as the current quarter (4Q: April-June), with higher-than...

Mark Chadwick

Amplitude: Valuations Look Attractive and Growth Catalysts May Materialize in CY22

Amplitude remains well-positioned as one of the leaders in product analytics with an opportunity to convert more GA enterprise customers to...

Andrei Zakharov

Shopify Inc.: Is The Market Leadership Here To Stay? Check Out The Key Drivers

Shopify’s stock has taken a beating along with the broader indices given the rate hike, bringing the company down to a more reasonable...

Baptista Research

Freshworks: Solid 1Q and Strong Outlook Despite Delays With Closing Deals in Europe

Freshworks reported solid 1QFY22 earnings results and raised outlook for FY22. We believe the company may sustain 30%+ subscription revenue growth...

Andrei Zakharov

Affirm Raises Outlook For FY 2022: No Changes In Bullish Narrative

We are moving our price target to $70.00 from $76.00, which we believe is fair and conservative. We model total revenue rising to ~$1.98B in FY’23,...

Andrei Zakharov

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