'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/784/original/2020-07-30_08-23-32.png?1596065031" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148784"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/785/original/2020-07-30_08-24-39.png?1596065092" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148785"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/786/original/2020-07-30_08-25-16.png?1596065140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148786"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>29th JULY</strong> - As the pace of announcements picks up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">ANA (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP)</a> were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>85 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 24%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 </strong>Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -12.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst' large-cap results yesterday in terms of our scoring methodology. In the DETAIL below, we cover all the results and forecasts for companies with a market cap of over ¥100 billion and make some trading suggestions.

DAILY STATS
85 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30 Positive / 5 Neutral / 50 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -2.7% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
 35 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 28 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 11 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -12.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.</p>

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is currently trading near support within the 16-17 month uptrend channel. Technicals suggest the most likely scenario is for the DXY uptrend to continue and for support to hold -- which would likely result in EAFE reasserting as leadership.  In this publication we highlight attractive investment themes and individual ideas across developed markets, with special attention given to Japan, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland.

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</strong></a> has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself - selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the recent sale of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a></strong>, de-consolidation of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a></strong>, and buy-in of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a></strong>. </p><p>The earnings call in May occasioned another presentation - that of the <span>update on </span><a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Progress of the Mid-Term Management Plan</a><span> (with a webcast and a </span><a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a/f_200529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation deck</a><span>), where the CEO responded to a question thusly:</span></p><div><blockquote>
<p><strong>QUESTION: </strong> Next question is regarding the, against the backdrop of COVID-19, is this going to have an impact on the reorganisation of the listed subsidiaries?</p>
<p><strong>ANSWER BY CEO HIGASHIHARA:  </strong>Regarding the listed subsidiary answer. <strong>Hitachi Construction Machinery</strong> and <strong>Hitachi Metals</strong> remain. And what we are telling the top management is that, in the time frame of fiscal year 2021 to 2024, we have to make sure these companies are able to compete globally. They are now evaluating this. It is not just a matter of COVID-19. Mid- to long-term growth strategy will be emphasised so the reorganisation strategy for the listed subsidiaries will not be impacted by COVID-19.</p>
</blockquote></div><div>
<p>FY 2021 to FY 2024 is a three year window starting next April, with FY2021 ending in March 2022 and FY2024 ending in March 2025.</p>
<div>
<p>That was May 29, less than five months ago and the situation was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hitachi-s-capital-case-liquidating-land-policy-holdings-what-about-the-subs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39920" rel="noopener">Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?</a>.</p>
<p>Friday saw an article out of the Nikkei suggesting <strong>Hitachi</strong> might sell half its stake in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a></strong> ("HCM") to a third party, at a discount, and that it might start a sale process on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Hitachi Metals (5486 JP</strong>)</a> "this month."</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>It strikes me as unlikely <strong>Hitachi</strong> would <em>themselves</em> be throwing in the towel 5 months later before the start of the time frame in which top management of the two subsidiaries are supposed to be able to compete globally. All of this is likely getting done with the will and direction of the subsidiaries themselves. This strikes me as some kind of agreement with management of <strong>HCM</strong> that they would not be averse to receiving expert help from outside while remaining listed. </p>
<p>This changes things.</p>
<p><strong>Hitachi</strong> becomes a different animal. It becomes a <em>non-stub trade</em> (parent vs significant value of listed short-able subs) for the first time in a very long time. And the optics change quite a bit.</p>
</div>
</div>

Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) has, for over a decade, been restructuring itself - selling subsidiaries here and buying them in there. There are two remaining after the recent sale of Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), de-consolidation of Hitachi Capital (8586 JP), and buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP). The earnings call in May occasioned another presentation - that of the update on Progress of the Mid-Term Management Plan (with a webcast and a presentation deck), where the CEO responded to a question thusly:
QUESTION:  Next question is regarding the, against the backdrop of COVID-19, is this going to have an impact on the reorganisation of the listed subsidiaries?
ANSWER BY CEO HIGASHIHARA:  Regarding the listed subsidiary answer. Hitachi Construction Machinery and Hitachi Metals remain. And what we are telling the top management is that, in the time frame of fiscal year 2021 to 2024, we have to make sure these companies are able to compete globally. They are now evaluating this. It is not just a matter of COVID-19. Mid- to long-term growth strategy will be emphasised so the reorganisation strategy for the listed subsidiaries will not be impacted by COVID-19.

FY 2021 to FY 2024 is a three year window starting next April, with FY2021 ending in March 2022 and FY2024 ending in March 2025.

That was May 29, less than five months ago and the situation was discussed in Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?.
Friday saw an article out of the Nikkei suggesting Hitachi might sell half its stake in Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) ("HCM") to a third party, at a discount, and that it might start a sale process on Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) "this month."


It strikes me as unlikely Hitachi would themselves be throwing in the towel 5 months later before the start of the time frame in which top management of the two subsidiaries are supposed to be able to compete globally. All of this is likely getting done with the will and direction of the subsidiaries themselves. This strikes me as some kind of agreement with management of HCM that they would not be averse to receiving expert help from outside while remaining listed. 
This changes things.
Hitachi becomes a different animal. It becomes a non-stub trade (parent vs significant value of listed short-able subs) for the first time in a very long time. And the optics change quite a bit.



<p>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> announced the successful completion of the three tender offers for subsidiary/affiliates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keihin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15395:1" rel="noopener">Keihin Corp (7251 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15079:1" rel="noopener">Showa Corp (7274 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-kogyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20362:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Kogyo (7230 JP)</a>.</p>
<p>The resulting ownership changes are as follows:</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" style="width: 641.714px;">
<h2>The State of the Honda Sub Residuals</h2>
</td>
<td style="width: 58.8571px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 118.286px;"><strong>Stock</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 96px;">
<strong>Announcement <br></strong>(click on the ogre to read the doc)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 61.7143px;"><strong>Tender Doc</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 56px;"><strong>TOB Price</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 65.7143px;">
<strong>Pre-Tender</strong><br><strong>Ownership</strong>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 68.5714px;">
<strong>Post-Tender</strong><br><strong>Ownership</strong>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 52px;"><strong>Fast-Track<br>Delisting</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.8571px;"><strong>Residual</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 118.286px;">Keihin (7251)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 96px;">
<h3><a href="https://global.honda/content/dam/site/global/investors/cq_img/library/filings/CY2020_20201016_TSEfiling_e_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 61.7143px;">
<h3><a href="https://www.keihin-corp.co.jp/en/ir/pdf/annualreport/annualreport2018.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 56px;">¥2600/shr</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 65.7143px;">25.30%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 68.5714px;">93.57%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 52px;">
<p>Yes</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.8571px;">¥12.36bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 118.286px;">Showa Corp (7274)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 96px;">
<h3><a href="https://global.honda/content/dam/site/global/investors/cq_img/library/filings/CY2020_20201016_TSEfiling_e_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 61.7143px;">
<h3><a href="https://global.honda/content/dam/site/global/investors/cq_img/library/filings/CY2020_20200901_TSEfiling_e_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 56px;">¥2300/shr</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 65.7143px;">33.14%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 68.5714px;">92.13%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 52px;">Yes</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.8571px;">¥13.75bn</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 118.286px;">Nissin Kogyo (7230)</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 96px;">
<h3><a href="https://global.honda/content/dam/site/global/investors/cq_img/library/filings/CY2020_20201016_TSEfiling_e_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 61.7143px;">
<h3><a href="https://global.honda/content/dam/site/global/investors/cq_img/library/filings/CY2020_20200901_TSEfiling_e_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">👹</a></h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 56px;">¥2250/shr</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 65.7143px;">31.61%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 68.5714px;">92.44%</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 52px;">Yes</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.8571px;">¥11.07bn</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The results are a little surprising in that all the names managed to get to 92+%. This indicates that some of the passive-tracking TOPIX holders sold into the tender, or their shares were tendered by being borrowed. </p>
<p>This leaves a setup trade.</p>

Today after the close, Honda Motor (7267 JP) announced the successful completion of the three tender offers for subsidiary/affiliates Keihin Corp (7251 JP), Showa Corp (7274 JP), and Nissin Kogyo (7230 JP).
The resulting ownership changes are as follows:




The State of the Honda Sub Residuals




Stock

Announcement  (click on the ogre to read the doc)
Tender Doc
TOB Price

Pre-Tender Ownership


Post-Tender Ownership

Fast-Track Delisting
Residual


Keihin (7251)

👹


👹

¥2600/shr
25.30%
93.57%

Yes

¥12.36bn


Showa Corp (7274)

👹


👹

¥2300/shr
33.14%
92.13%
Yes
¥13.75bn


Nissin Kogyo (7230)

👹


👹

¥2250/shr
31.61%
92.44%
Yes
¥11.07bn



The results are a little surprising in that all the names managed to get to 92+%. This indicates that some of the passive-tracking TOPIX holders sold into the tender, or their shares were tendered by being borrowed. 
This leaves a setup trade.

Honda Tenders Done - Now For The Residuals

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>With the ongoing COVID-19 cases in the US, its auto sector is unlikely to recover this year that is a drag to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a> 's earnings but it has recently penetrated the Chinese auto market, supplying to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> for Electric Power Steering component, that could help to increase the company's overall profitability. From a credit perspective, Nexteer's debt-to-equity ratio is also very low compared to the Japanese small-cap peers such as Futaba and KYB and even compared to its two largest customers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-motors-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1" rel="noopener">General Motors Co (GM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ford-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19225:1" rel="noopener">Ford Motor Co (F US)</a> at 202% and 390% debt to equity ratio respectively. </p>
<p>Nexteer is trading at a 30-37% discount to its peers and compared to the Chinese auto suppliers such as Minth, Fuyao and Huayu, Nexteer is also trading at a 55% discount in EV/EBITDA, 33% discount in PER, and 61% in PBR. </p>
<p>As the Chinese auto sector recovers earlier compared to the US, the company's earnings should start to recover and its profitability should also increase, therefore, its share price should increase correspondingly. BUY. </p>

With the ongoing COVID-19 cases in the US, its auto sector is unlikely to recover this year that is a drag to Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK) 's earnings but it has recently penetrated the Chinese auto market, supplying to Geely Auto (175 HK) for Electric Power Steering component, that could help to increase the company's overall profitability. From a credit perspective, Nexteer's debt-to-equity ratio is also very low compared to the Japanese small-cap peers such as Futaba and KYB and even compared to its two largest customers, General Motors Co (GM US) and Ford Motor Co (F US) at 202% and 390% debt to equity ratio respectively. 
Nexteer is trading at a 30-37% discount to its peers and compared to the Chinese auto suppliers such as Minth, Fuyao and Huayu, Nexteer is also trading at a 55% discount in EV/EBITDA, 33% discount in PER, and 61% in PBR. 
As the Chinese auto sector recovers earlier compared to the US, the company's earnings should start to recover and its profitability should also increase, therefore, its share price should increase correspondingly. BUY. 

Japan

SHOWA CORPORATION, an affiliate of Honda Motor Co manufactures hydraulic products for automobiles, motorcycles, boats, and construction machinery. The Company's products include shock absorbers, power steering systems, hydraulic cylinders, and cranes.

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Showa Corp (7274 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th July - Kao, SMFG, Nomura, NRI, Asahi Holdings, NRE

29th JULY - As the pace of announcements picks up, ANA (9202 JP), Showa (7274 JP), and Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JP) were the three 'worst'...

Campbell Gunn

Developed Markets Strategy: Stick with Japan

Despite EAFE’s YTD outperformance relative to EM, EAFE and EM returns have generally been equal since August, shown by the stalemate in the EAFE...

Vermilion Research

The Right Trade May Be Hitachi

Hitachi is getting to the end of its Core vs Non-Core restructuring campaign. Two remaining subs have newsflow, and earnings announcements shortly....

Travis Lundy

Honda Tenders Done - Now For The Residuals

Honda secures 92-93% of each of its parts affiliates under Tender Offer. Expect a Delisting end-November or so, and cash payment early-mid Jan2021....

Travis Lundy

Nexteer (1316): China Recovery to Help

As the Chinese auto sector recovers earlier compared to the US, Nexteer's revenues start to recover and its profitability should also increase,...

Henry Soediarko

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