IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> announced a pure secondary offering of 12.6 million or 37.50% of outstanding shares. At the last close, the placement is worth JPY277 billion (US$1.9 billion)</li>
<li>The selling shareholders' primary motivation for exiting their shareholding is to capitalise on the extraordinary share price. Socionext shares are up 6x from the IPO price of JPY3,650 per share.</li>
<li>We think looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 11 to 13 July (likely 11 July).</li>
</ul>



Socionext (6526 JP) announced a pure secondary offering of 12.6 million or 37.50% of outstanding shares. At the last close, the placement is worth JPY277 billion (US$1.9 billion)
The selling shareholders' primary motivation for exiting their shareholding is to capitalise on the extraordinary share price. Socionext shares are up 6x from the IPO price of JPY3,650 per share.
We think looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 11 to 13 July (likely 11 July).


Socionext (6526 JP): US$1.9bn Secondary Placement

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the placement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>’s shares are down -15.7% from the undisturbed price of JPY707 per share (12 May prior to press reports of the placement).</li>
<li>To understand how the shares will trade as the offer is launched, we think it is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements. Pricing date is likely 24 May.</li>
<li>So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the placement, Rakuten (4755 JP)’s shares are down -15.7% from the undisturbed price of JPY707 per share (12 May prior to press reports of the placement).
To understand how the shares will trade as the offer is launched, we think it is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements. Pricing date is likely 24 May.
So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week - now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing - Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week - Watch Softbank</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT - BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week - now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing - Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week - Watch Softbank
DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT - BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.


Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%DoD +2.7%WoW; Semi run continues with SOX +0.4%DoD +6.2%WoW; Beta and Growth the big WoW winners;  Fed's Bostic leans to 25bp hike; Tesla cuts prices</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futs -1.3% vs Cash;  JGB 10Yr Yld hits 0.512% despite BOJ 10trn yen buying; USDJPY up to127.87;  DECARBONIZATION: Resonac (Showa Denko) expansion; Toray  expansion; METI CCS roadmap</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Slowing EV sales in China ? Maybe, but its still the largest EV market in the world. We see Nidec as the best way to play.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +0.4%DoD +2.7%WoW; Semi run continues with SOX +0.4%DoD +6.2%WoW; Beta and Growth the big WoW winners;  Fed's Bostic leans to 25bp hike; Tesla cuts prices
JAPAN:  NKY Futs -1.3% vs Cash;  JGB 10Yr Yld hits 0.512% despite BOJ 10trn yen buying; USDJPY up to127.87;  DECARBONIZATION: Resonac (Showa Denko) expansion; Toray  expansion; METI CCS roadmap
DAILY NUGGET: Slowing EV sales in China ? Maybe, but its still the largest EV market in the world. We see Nidec as the best way to play.


Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.</li>
<li>This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.</li>
<li>This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.</li>
</ul>


As designed, the JPX-Nikkei400 Index is something of a disaster. It aims to be slightly 'smart' vs other cap-weighted indices like TOPIX, but tracking error vs TOPIX is de minimus.
This year, in week 1, the ADD vs DELETE performance is positive. If we sector-hedge the ADDs vs DELETEs, it's doing even better.
This is probably due to relatively low pre-positioning, and cares. Momentum suggests one could be long ADDs vs DELETEs. And there is the perennial trade to watch out for.


2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

Japan

Resonac Holdings Corporation manufactures and distributes chemical products. The Company produces synthetic resins, petrochemical products, inorganics, and other related products. Resonac Holdings also produces ceramics, metals, carbon, electronic materials, and other products.

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Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)

Socionext (6526 JP): US$1.9bn Secondary Placement

We think looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 11...

Arun George

Rakuten (4755 JP): The Current Playbook

So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese...

Arun George

Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor; Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px; BOJ in Focus

Fed 1 Inflation 0, Fed Wins; Equity Bid Continues; Telsa Cuts Px (positive Panasonic); BOJ in Focus. Expect the BOJ to lift JGB buying and do what...

Mark Chadwick

2022 JPX Nikkei 400 Rebal Update - Going the Right Way

JPX Nikkei 400 rebalance is going the right way in the 6 trading days so far, and it wasn't done on Day1 (which was lacklustre). It may be under...

Travis Lundy

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