Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With over 90% of the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> and the stock should continue to outperform. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26712:1" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission (ADANIT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART)</a> have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.</li>
</ul>


With over 90% of the review period complete, Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is a high probability inclusion to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and will replace Shree Cement (SRCM IN). 
We estimate passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) and the stock should continue to outperform. 

Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR), Adani Transmission (ADANIT) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART) have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

<ul>
<li>We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> being included in the index, while either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


We are past the halfway mark in the review period of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) September rebalance. We see one potential change which should be announced end August.
There is a high probability of Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) being included in the index, while either Shree Cement (SRCM IN) or Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) will be deleted.
The impact of passive fund trading on the stocks is high in terms of days of ADV, but very high in terms of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nuvoco Vistas (NV) raised around US$673m in its India IPO. It is promoted by the Nirma Group and has recently acquired Emami’s cement business.Nuvoco Vistas (NV) is the fifth largest cement company in India and the largest cement company in East India, in terms of capacity. It had a total consolidated capacity of 22.32 MMTPA across 11 cement plants, comprising five integrated units, five grinding units and one blending unit. It also operates a RMX business with 49 RMX plants across India. As of Dec 2020, its cement production capacity constituted approximately 4.2% of total cement capacity in India and 17% of total cement capacity in East India.The company’s past revenue growth has been subdued, largely owing to COVID-19 impact. Although, it has managed to expand its EBITDA margin, especially in FY20, thus shoring up EBITDA growth. However, there is nothing particularly alluring about the stock that makes it stand out versus its peers. We covered the background of the company in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nuvoco-vistas-ipo-don-t-see-any-strong-reason-to-buy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nuvoco Vistas IPO - Don’t see any strong reason to buy.</a>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Nuvoco Vistas (NV) raised around US$673m in its India IPO. It is promoted by the Nirma Group and has recently acquired Emami’s cement business.Nuvoco Vistas (NV) is the fifth largest cement company in India and the largest cement company in East India, in terms of capacity. It had a total consolidated capacity of 22.32 MMTPA across 11 cement plants, comprising five integrated units, five grinding units and one blending unit. It also operates a RMX business with 49 RMX plants across India. As of Dec 2020, its cement production capacity constituted approximately 4.2% of total cement capacity in India and 17% of total cement capacity in East India.The company’s past revenue growth has been subdued, largely owing to COVID-19 impact. Although, it has managed to expand its EBITDA margin, especially in FY20, thus shoring up EBITDA growth. However, there is nothing particularly alluring about the stock that makes it stand out versus its peers. We covered the background of the company in our previous note, Nuvoco Vistas IPO - Don’t see any strong reason to buy.In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), SMC Global

SMC Online

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Performance for the quarter ended March 2021 Total consolidated income from operation inclined 23% to Rs 4,204.88 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2021. OPM decreased by 150 bps to 29.4%. The decrement in OPM was due to gain in freight &amp; forwarding cost by 220 bps to 23.4%, employee costs by 70 bps to 6.6%, other expenses by 60 bps to 15.4%, and raw material costs by 40 bps to 7.2% as percentage to sales and net of stock adjustments, partially offset by decline in power &amp; fuel cost by 340 bps to 17%.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Performance for the quarter ended March 2021 Total consolidated income from operation inclined 23% to Rs 4,204.88 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2021. OPM decreased by 150 bps to 29.4%. The decrement in OPM was due to gain in freight &amp; forwarding cost by 220 bps to 23.4%, employee costs by 70 bps to 6.6%, other expenses by 60 bps to 15.4%, and raw material costs by 40 bps to 7.2% as percentage to sales and net of stock adjustments, partially offset by decline in power &amp; fuel cost by 340 bps to 17%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SHREECEM: Performance for the quarter ended March 2021 Total consolidated income from operation i...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

India

Shree Cement Ltd. manufactures cement and cement products. The Company sells its products primarily in Northern India under its own brand names.

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Shree Cement (SRCM IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

Adani Enterprises should replace Shree Cement in the NIFTY50 Index at the close on 29 September. Passive NIFTY50 trackers will need to buy nearly...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: High Probability Add; Impact Higher than the Headline Numbers

Adani Enterprises is a high probability add to the NIFTY50 in Sep. Shree Cement is the current delete, though Hero Motocorp is close. There will be...

Brian Freitas

Nuvoco Vistas IPO Trading - Tepid Demand

Nuvoco Vistas (NV) raised around US$673m in its India IPO. It is promoted by the Nirma Group and has recently acquired Emami’s cement business.

Sumeet Singh

SHREECEM: Performance for the quarter ended March 2021 Total consolidated income from operation i...

Performance for the quarter ended March 2021 Total consolidated income from operation inclined 23% to Rs 4,204.88 crore for the fourth quarter...

SMC Online

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

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