External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 15.3% in the last three months against the 11.9% return posted by the Nifty 50, outperforming the Nifty 50 by a notable margin of 3.4%.</li><li>Moreover, over the last one month, the basket has gained 2.6%. We are happy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 321% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 167% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.</li><li>India’s Domestic Economy Well-Positioned: Despite external risks, India’s domestic growth trajectory remains intact, with key macroeconomic factors supporting a stronger FY26 compared to FY25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 15.3% in the last three months against the 11.9% return posted by the Nifty 50, outperforming the Nifty 50 by a notable margin of 3.4%.Moreover, over the last one month, the basket has gained 2.6%. We are happy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 321% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 167% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period.India’s Domestic Economy Well-Positioned: Despite external risks, India’s domestic growth trajectory remains intact, with key macroeconomic factors supporting a stronger FY26 compared to FY25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2025

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

<ul><li>The Q4FY25 earnings season was marked by 1) Sequential improvement in capex spending, 2) A Series of positive measures in the domestic economy taken by the RBI and the government, 3) Volatile Currency, 4) Volatile Trade dynamics, and 5) Volatile Crude prices. All these developments indicate that the Q4FY25 earnings would show a mixed trend, similar to the previous quarters.</li><li>Some breather is expected in Q4FY25 numbers, led by sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators.</li><li>However, the broader consumption demand could still take 1-2 quarters to get back on track. Overall, the improvement in earnings is expected in certain pockets like BFSI, IT, Healthcare, Telecom, and Industrials, while Consumer Staples, Retail, and cyclical sectors like Oil &amp; Gas remain under pressure. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Q4FY25 earnings season was marked by 1) Sequential improvement in capex spending, 2) A Series of positive measures in the domestic economy taken by the RBI and the government, 3) Volatile Currency, 4) Volatile Trade dynamics, and 5) Volatile Crude prices. All these developments indicate that the Q4FY25 earnings would show a mixed trend, similar to the previous quarters.Some breather is expected in Q4FY25 numbers, led by sequential improvement in some of the pockets of high-frequency indicators.However, the broader consumption demand could still take 1-2 quarters to get back on track. Overall, the improvement in earnings is expected in certain pockets like BFSI, IT, Healthcare, Telecom, and Industrials, while Consumer Staples, Retail, and cyclical sectors like Oil &amp; Gas remain under pressure. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The systemic credit growth (as of 21st March, 2025) has tapered to ~11% vs. 15-16% YoY.</li><li>This can be primarily attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.</li><li>We expect banks under our coverage to deliver ~12% YoY credit growth, largely in line with industry growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The systemic credit growth (as of 21st March, 2025) has tapered to ~11% vs. 15-16% YoY.This can be primarily attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.We expect banks under our coverage to deliver ~12% YoY credit growth, largely in line with industry growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

<ul><li>Banks (incl. SFBs) under our coverage reported an in-line performance, delivering a credit growth at ~12% YoY, mirroring systemic growth.</li><li>This was owing to the continuous and conscious slowdown visible in the unsecured segments, particularly microfinance, credit cards and personal loans, as asset quality concerns continued to haunt.</li><li>Credit growth was primarily driven by Retail and SME portfolios, while banks continued to remain aloof in pursuing corporate growth given pricing pressures. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks (incl. SFBs) under our coverage reported an in-line performance, delivering a credit growth at ~12% YoY, mirroring systemic growth.This was owing to the continuous and conscious slowdown visible in the unsecured segments, particularly microfinance, credit cards and personal loans, as asset quality concerns continued to haunt.Credit growth was primarily driven by Retail and SME portfolios, while banks continued to remain aloof in pursuing corporate growth given pricing pressures. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) ”

India

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

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Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)

Axis Top Picks for the Month of June 2025

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered a return of 15.3% in the last three months against the 11.9% return posted by the Nifty 50, outperforming the...

Axis Direct

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Q4FY25 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Based on our and consensus estimates, we forecast Nifty to deliver Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 4.8%/2.9%/1.3% YoY, respectively, for the quarter.

Axis Direct

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

We would watch out for management commentary on growth trajectory in FY26 and direction for recovery in the unsecured segments, particularly MFI...

Axis Direct

Top Conviction Ideas - “Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) ”

Banks (incl. SFBs) under our coverage reported an in-line performance, delivering a credit growth at ~12% YoY, mirroring systemic growth.

Axis Direct

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