Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a> is a high probability add and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20776:1" rel="noopener">UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)</a> is a high probability delete at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> rebalance in March.</li>
<li>There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> at the rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> will enter the running once added to the F&amp;O segment of the market.</li>
</ul>



Shriram Finance (SHFL IN) is a high probability add and UPL Ltd (UPLL IN) is a high probability delete at the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) rebalance in March.
There is a lower probability of Bharat Electronics (BHE IN) or Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) replacing Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) at the rebalance.

Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN IN), Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) and Zomato (ZOMATO IN) will enter the running once added to the F&amp;O segment of the market.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a> continued for another week.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.

Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) replaced Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on Friday.
There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US) continued for another week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shriram Finance (formerly Shriram Transport Finance) now includes two major subsidiaries in its numbers, in the listed entity, driving up AUM, ROA and net profit. </li>
<li>There is strong latent demand in India for pre-owned commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, where SHTF focuses, with a long track record of good profit, ROA, NIM. </li>
<li>Underwriting seems strong given stage 3 and stage 2 loan data, and with funding cost improvements, from distribution of liabilities, good scope for profit growth, ROA, NIM.</li>
</ul>


Shriram Finance (formerly Shriram Transport Finance) now includes two major subsidiaries in its numbers, in the listed entity, driving up AUM, ROA and net profit. 
There is strong latent demand in India for pre-owned commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, where SHTF focuses, with a long track record of good profit, ROA, NIM. 
Underwriting seems strong given stage 3 and stage 2 loan data, and with funding cost improvements, from distribution of liabilities, good scope for profit growth, ROA, NIM.


Shriram Finance - Strong Latent Demand, ROA 3.08% from 2.70%, Stage 2 Loans -14%, +25% Profit 1Q24

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shriram Finance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.</li>
<li>The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.
The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

SBI Cards & Payment Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.</li>
</ul>


NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs during the September 2024 index rebal event.
More than 50% of the 6-month reference period is now complete. There are a couple of changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since my last insight.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

India

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

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Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: One Change, Maybe Two, Low Probability of Three

There will be one change for the NIFTY in March, there could be two, with three changes a much lower possibility. Impact will be at least 3x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Shriram Finance - Strong Latent Demand, ROA 3.08% from 2.70%, Stage 2 Loans -14%, +25% Profit 1Q24

Shriram Finance now includes 2 subsidiaries in earnings, and assets. Its ROA is up to 3.08% from 2.70% YoY in 1Q24. Stage 2 loans -14% YoY can mean...

Daniel Tabbush

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 24: Strong Flow Rationale for LONG Jio Financial - SHORT SBI Cards

SBI Cards is an expected DEL for NIFTY Next 50 in Sep 24 and BSE 100 in Jun 24. Jio Financial is an expected ADD for both BSE 100 and BSE 200 in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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