Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In a move unprecedented in its scale in independent India, the Reserve Bank of India demonetised the Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee note on November 8, 2016. The withdrawing and replacing of 86% of the currency in circulation in a cash economy like India has led to an upheaval in markets leading to a severe shortage of cash. While supporters of the prime minister have hailed the move as a “surgical strike” against black money, there is nothing surgical or precision-guided about it and the entire…

In a move unprecedented in its scale in independent India, the Reserve Bank of India demonetised the Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee note on November 8, 2016. The withdrawing and replacing of 86% of the currency in circulation in a cash economy like India has led to an upheaval in markets leading to a severe shortage of cash. While supporters of the prime minister have hailed the move as a “surgical strike” against black money, there is nothing surgical or precision-guided about it and the entire…

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the Indian economy. But that would require his having the right diagnosis in the first place. The current approach is that India suffers from a 'balance sheet' issue of over-leveraged large corporates and banks burdened with poor asset quality. Resolving these issues through stringent asset recognition norms and recovery mechanisms combined with economic reforms will put India back on the track of high investments. However, RBI's own data shifts the spotlight elsewhere but strangely nobody appears interested in exploring further as it challenges the mainstream view.

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the Indian economy. But that would require his having the right diagnosis in the first place. The current approach is that India suffers from a 'balance sheet' issue of over-leveraged large corporates and banks burdened with poor asset quality. Resolving these issues through stringent asset recognition norms and recovery mechanisms combined with economic reforms will put India back on the track of high investments. However, RBI's own data shifts the spotlight elsewhere but strangely nobody appears interested in exploring further as it challenges the mainstream view.

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI Prudential Life being the first, offer opportunities for investors requiring exposure to this sector in India.  Increasing penetration, enhancing long-term savings and mobilizing much-needed investments for infrastructure were expected to be the outcomes from such a policy. The liberalization process transformed the infrastructure sector from a low risk, public sector asset to a high-risk investment and introduced high volatility in penetration as insurance companies became stock market players and exposed policy holders to the vagaries of the capital market.For those interested in conventional life insurance companies, they may have to wait indefinitely for the listing of the government-owned Life Insurance Corporation as many private sector insurance companies have adopted a mutual fund model.   In the alternative, they may consider some of the companies less exposed to the capital market  and may have to wait for the eventual listing of HDFC-Max Life, Bajaj Life and Birla Sun Life.

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI Prudential Life being the first, offer opportunities for investors requiring exposure to this sector in India.  Increasing penetration, enhancing long-term savings and mobilizing much-needed investments for infrastructure were expected to be the outcomes from such a policy. The liberalization process transformed the infrastructure sector from a low risk, public sector asset to a high-risk investment and introduced high volatility in penetration as insurance companies became stock market players and exposed policy holders to the vagaries of the capital market.For those interested in conventional life insurance companies, they may have to wait indefinitely for the listing of the government-owned Life Insurance Corporation as many private sector insurance companies have adopted a mutual fund model.   In the alternative, they may consider some of the companies less exposed to the capital market  and may have to wait for the eventual listing of HDFC-Max Life, Bajaj Life and Birla Sun Life.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> drops into deletion zone, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> are the highest ranked non-constituents outside direct inclusion zone.</li>
<li>Despite having a lower average free float market cap, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> could be added to the index ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a> to maintain sector balance.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.

Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) drops into deletion zone, while Shriram Finance (SHFL IN) and Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) are the highest ranked non-constituents outside direct inclusion zone.
Despite having a lower average free float market cap, Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) could be added to the index ahead of Shriram Finance (SHFL IN) to maintain sector balance.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Balance Could See Hindalco Replace Trent

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This is a first time that India has actually crossed the LoC to send a strong signal to Pakistan and this action, unfortunately, increases the risk of confrontation well into the future. Historically any tensions between India and Pakistan were defused by back channel intervention of global powers…

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This is a first time that India has actually crossed the LoC to send a strong signal to Pakistan and this action, unfortunately, increases the risk of confrontation well into the future. Historically any tensions between India and Pakistan were defused by back channel intervention of global powers…

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

India

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

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Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)

Demonetisation: Self Inflicted

In a move unprecedented in its scale in independent India, the Reserve Bank of India demonetised the Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee note on November 8,...

Hemindra Hazari

Bank Credit Growth: Wrong Diagnosis ?

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Life Insurance: License for a Casino

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI...

Hemindra Hazari

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Balance Could See Hindalco Replace Trent

Sector balance could result in Hindalco being added to the index and replacing Trent. Passives need to trade over 5x ADV/11x delivery volume in the...

Brian Freitas

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the...

Asia Advisors

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