Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.</li><li>However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.</li><li>This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. </li></ul>

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to provide only short-term positive momentum.However, the 2025E GDP growth outlook, projected at 2.8% (range: 2.3-3.3%), is seen as a negative guidance compared to the consensus estimate of 3.0%.This reflects downside risks from global economic uncertainties, particularly in international trade, which is expected to be negatively impacted by Donald Trump's tariff hike policies. 

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headlines of UOB 3Q24 while strong at the bottom line, we have a very different read of the numbers </li>
<li>Investment &amp; trading income is more than the whole delta in UOB's net profit during 3Q24 YoY and QoQ</li>
<li>Operating costs rose 12% YoY, while net interest income was up just 1% YoY and core net fee income was up 7% YoY</li>
</ul>


Headlines of UOB 3Q24 while strong at the bottom line, we have a very different read of the numbers 
Investment &amp; trading income is more than the whole delta in UOB's net profit during 3Q24 YoY and QoQ
Operating costs rose 12% YoY, while net interest income was up just 1% YoY and core net fee income was up 7% YoY


UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

<ul><li>The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our expectations.</li><li>This was due to: I) BBL’s better-than-expected non-interest income (NII) from mark-to-market investment gains, and ii) lower-than-expected provisions from SCB and KKP.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the banking sector, as the short-term growth drivers remain unclear. </li></ul>

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our expectations.This was due to: I) BBL’s better-than-expected non-interest income (NII) from mark-to-market investment gains, and ii) lower-than-expected provisions from SCB and KKP.We maintain a Neutral rating on the banking sector, as the short-term growth drivers remain unclear. 

Banking Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings but a Lack of Short-Term Catalysts - OCTOBER 28, 2024

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Krung Thai remains our sole best value pick among the Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, delivering double digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios</li>
<li>Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best returns of the peer group, with reassuring metrics in terms of credit quality</li>
<li>Its share price is the best performer year-to-date, but we still see it to be attractively valued and the recent correction is a buying opportunity</li>
</ul>


Krung Thai remains our sole best value pick among the Thai banks, having solid post-provision profitability, delivering double digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best returns of the peer group, with reassuring metrics in terms of credit quality
Its share price is the best performer year-to-date, but we still see it to be attractively valued and the recent correction is a buying opportunity


Thai Banks 3Q24 Screener; Krung Thai Offers the Best Value Relative to the Returns Outlook

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock has upside of around 9% from the current price, while the long-term performance is expected to grow at a moderate pace.</li><li>The tactical risk remains neutral.</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock has upside of around 9% from the current price, while the long-term performance is expected to grow at a moderate pace.The tactical risk remains neutral.

Scb X - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Lower Provisioning

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

UOB's results were good at bottom line, but we believe that they are misunderstood. Trading, investment income drove profit delta, not net interest...

Daniel Tabbush

Banking Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings but a Lack of Short-Term Catalysts - OCTOBER 28, 2024

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 3Q24 Screener; Krung Thai Offers the Best Value Relative to the Returns Outlook

Krung Thai continues to stand out as our top pick among Thai banks, with its sound profitability, high ROE, solid balance sheet and attractive...

Victor Galliano

Scb X - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Lower Provisioning

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Economic Update: 3Q24 GDP Growth - Upbeat 3Q24 GDP Growth

KTX expects the better-than-expected 3Q24 GDP growth report, along with the NESDC's upward revision of 2024E GDP growth to 2.6% (from 2.5%), to...

Krungthai XSpring

UOB - Profit +SGD228m YoY, Trading & Investment Income +SGD320m YoY, 3Q24 Not as Great as Headline

UOB's results were good at bottom line, but we believe that they are misunderstood. Trading, investment income drove profit delta, not net interest...

Daniel Tabbush

Banking Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings but a Lack of Short-Term Catalysts - OCTOBER 28, 2024

The six banks under our coverage reported a combined net profit of Bt43.6bn in 3Q24, growing 8.6% YoY and 3.0% QoQ, which was 6% above our...

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Banks 3Q24 Screener; Krung Thai Offers the Best Value Relative to the Returns Outlook

​Krung Thai continues to stand out as our top pick among Thai banks, with its sound profitability, high ROE, solid balance sheet and attractive...

Victor Galliano

Scb X - Upbeat 3Q24 Earnings; Lower Provisioning

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a 12M FV of Bt124.00, based on the earnings yield method and a required return of 15.6%.

Krungthai XSpring

Krung Thai continues to stand out as our top pick among Thai banks, with its sound profitability, high ROE, solid balance sheet and attractive...