Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 21- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: the NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matrix-composites-eng" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8331:1" rel="noopener">Matrix Composites &amp; Eng (MCE AU)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ju-teng-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9998:1" rel="noopener">Ju Teng International (3336 HK)</a> is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qoria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30531:1" rel="noopener">Qoria (QOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 21- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: the NBIO for Matrix Composites &amp; Eng (MCE AU). Ju Teng International (3336 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code
Key updates/news also took place on: Qube Holdings (QUB AU),Qoria (QOR AU), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK), Ingenia Communities (INA AU), and Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Makino Milling, Matrix Composites, Qube, Qoria, Changhong Jiahua, Ingenia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a>'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.</li>
<li>I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.</li>
<li>IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a> and 64.7%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> are both uninvestable.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.
I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.
IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and 64.7%-held Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in casinos effective on Jan. 1, 2019, one year later than our existing expectation. Our current forecasts across our narrow moat coverage universe already factor in a negative mid-single-digit percentage point impact to VIP play in 2018, and postponing that one year is not expected to have any significant impact to our fair value estimates. Our current fair value estimates per share are HKD 17 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/472" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1">MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK)</a>, HKD 36 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/182" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1">Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)</a>, HKD 14 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/473" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>, USD 17 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/810" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1">Melco Crown Entertainment ADR (MPEL US)</a>, HKD 36 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/806" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1">Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (27 HK)</a>, HKD 6.6 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/805" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:805:1">SJM Holdings Ltd (880 HK)</a>, $133 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/606" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1">Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US)</a>, $56 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1">Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US)</a>, and $29.50 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a>. We continue to see Wynn trading at an attractive margin of safety.The revised bill creates a level playing field for casino operators. We have confirmed with a Macau legislative assembly member that the revised bill outlines that all VIP smoking gaming areas will be closed and that all casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges on both VIP and mass gaming floors. Therefore, under the proposed bill newer casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges in VIP gaming areas, while the older casinos will lose the smoking premium mass and VIP smoking area. As a result, Cotai casinos as a whole stand to gain market share at the expense of Macau peninsula casinos.Analyst: Chelsea Tam

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in casinos effective on Jan. 1, 2019, one year later than our existing expectation. Our current forecasts across our narrow moat coverage universe already factor in a negative mid-single-digit percentage point impact to VIP play in 2018, and postponing that one year is not expected to have any significant impact to our fair value estimates. Our current fair value estimates per share are HKD 17 for MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK), HKD 36 for Sands China Ltd (1928 HK), HKD 14 for Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK), USD 17 for Melco Crown Entertainment ADR (MPEL US), HKD 36 for Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (27 HK), HKD 6.6 for SJM Holdings Ltd (880 HK), $133 for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US), $56 for Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US), and $29.50 for MGM Resorts International (MGM US). We continue to see Wynn trading at an attractive margin of safety.The revised bill creates a level playing field for casino operators. We have confirmed with a Macau legislative assembly member that the revised bill outlines that all VIP smoking gaming areas will be closed and that all casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges on both VIP and mass gaming floors. Therefore, under the proposed bill newer casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges in VIP gaming areas, while the older casinos will lose the smoking premium mass and VIP smoking area. As a result, Cotai casinos as a whole stand to gain market share at the expense of Macau peninsula casinos.Analyst: Chelsea Tam

Expected Macau Smoking Ban Creates a Level Playing Field for Operators

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd September 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-changhong-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17702:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH)</a> made an Offer, by way of a pre-conditional Scheme, for 60.13%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK)</a>
</li>
<li>Sichuan Changhong,  plus provincial bodies, offered HK$1.223/share, a 32.93% premium to last close. The Offer Price is final. And optically is fair. </li>
<li>City level SASAC has been squared away. Provincial reg clearances outstanding (&amp; tardy), which may be due to governmental personnel changes, and the approval process straddling Chinese New Year. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd September 2025, SOE-backed Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH) made an Offer, by way of a pre-conditional Scheme, for 60.13%-held Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK)

Sichuan Changhong,  plus provincial bodies, offered HK$1.223/share, a 32.93% premium to last close. The Offer Price is final. And optically is fair. 
City level SASAC has been squared away. Provincial reg clearances outstanding (&amp; tardy), which may be due to governmental personnel changes, and the approval process straddling Chinese New Year. 


Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK): What's Up (Or Down To Be Precise)?

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos to visit portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos to visit portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Laos

China

Sichuan Changhong Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of household electrical appliances.  The Company's products include TV sets, air conditioners, digital video disc (DVD) players, batteries, and other related products.

Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH)

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Sichuan Changhong Electric Co, Ltd. (600839 CH)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Makino Milling, Matrix Composites, Qube, Qoria, Changhong Jiahua, Ingenia

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Expected Macau Smoking Ban Creates a Level Playing Field for Operators

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in...

Morningstar, Inc.

Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK): What's Up (Or Down To Be Precise)?

CJ is illiquid. If an arber opt to kick out, the stock will be materially impacted, as (presumably) seen this week. If small, illiquid arbs are...

David Blennerhassett

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Laos

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos...

Asia Frontier Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)