Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a>'s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)</a> has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.</li>
<li>There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK)'s stock price has recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff and the higher market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.

WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) has gone from bottom of the pack to middle over the last 9 months and there could be further relative upside.
There is positioning in the stock but it appears to be lower than positioning in its peers. Long/short trades could offer better risk/return.


Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascentage-pharma-group-inter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27824:1" rel="noopener">Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK)</a> (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via  top-up placement.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with none of the deals having done well. Although stock momentum has been strong this year.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK) (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via  top-up placement.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with none of the deals having done well. Although stock momentum has been strong this year.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement - Past Deals Didn't Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> granted an exclusive worldwide license to develop, manufacture, and commercialize HS-20094, an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist.</li>
<li>Globally, the only approved dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist is Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which garnered revenue of $4.9B in 2024, with a potential of peak global sales of $27.2B by 2030.</li>
<li>Hansoh’s mainstay drug Ameile was approved for an additional indication of treatment of adult patients with stage II to IIIB NSCLC whose tumors have EGFR mutations.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) granted an exclusive worldwide license to develop, manufacture, and commercialize HS-20094, an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist.
Globally, the only approved dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist is Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which garnered revenue of $4.9B in 2024, with a potential of peak global sales of $27.2B by 2030.
Hansoh’s mainstay drug Ameile was approved for an additional indication of treatment of adult patients with stage II to IIIB NSCLC whose tumors have EGFR mutations.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Outlicensing and Indication Expansion Of Core Drug Augur Well

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Medical System / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from "dependence on generic drugs" to "innovation-driven drugs".</li>
<li>However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.</li>
<li>After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance. </li>
</ul>


CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from "dependence on generic drugs" to "innovation-driven drugs".
However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.
After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance. 


Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

China

Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company develops and provides biological drugs, chemical raw materials, antibody conjugating drugs, innovative drugs, and other products. Kelun Biotech also operates import and export businesses.

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Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharm (6990 HK)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

Wuxi XDC could be added to a global index in August. There is positioning in the stock (but lower than peers) and sector momentum could lead to...

Brian Freitas

Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement - Past Deals Didn't Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK) (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Outlicensing and Indication Expansion Of Core Drug Augur Well

Hansoh Pharma grants license for dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist to Regeneron, aiming to tap global weight loss market. Flagship drug Ameile also...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Listing in SGX opens a new chapter and CMS is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. But as valuation logic changes, license...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

Wuxi XDC Cayman (2268 HK): Soaring Pharma Stocks & Global Index Inclusion

Wuxi XDC could be added to a global index in August. There is positioning in the stock (but lower than peers) and sector momentum could lead to...

Brian Freitas

Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement - Past Deals Didn't Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK) (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Outlicensing and Indication Expansion Of Core Drug Augur Well

​Hansoh Pharma grants license for dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist to Regeneron, aiming to tap global weight loss market. Flagship drug Ameile also...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Listing in SGX opens a new chapter and CMS is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. But as valuation logic changes, license...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hansoh Pharma grants license for dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist to Regeneron, aiming to tap global weight loss market. Flagship drug Ameile also...