HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.</li>
<li>Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.</li>
<li>Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.</li>
</ul>


Commercialization prospects of domestic autoimmune disease market is highly uncertain. Related drugs’ sales could be very limited in short term. Overseas market space is much larger, so internationalization is inevitable.
Our forecast on RemeGen’s total sales is just RMB3.5-4 billion. The deal with Seagen still puzzles us, which is the key to determine how far RemeGen can go in internationalization.
Keymed is like "a younger RemeGen" due to the differentiation strategy of pipeline layout. However, Keymed’s internationalization progress is much weaker, with higher risks and uncertainties than RemeGen.


Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects

<ul>
<li>For the three commercialized products (fruquintinib, surufatinib and savolitinib), they are facing challenges from different aspects. </li>
<li>The lack of blockbuster products and promising targets indicates that Hutchmed's current pipeline does not have core competitiveness, which means Hutchmed's position in the industry is not in first echelon.</li>
<li>In fact, Li Ka-shing's positioning and original intention for Hutchmed is not on innovative drugs. So, big but not strong has always been the pain point of the Company.</li>
</ul>


For the three commercialized products (fruquintinib, surufatinib and savolitinib), they are facing challenges from different aspects. 
The lack of blockbuster products and promising targets indicates that Hutchmed's current pipeline does not have core competitiveness, which means Hutchmed's position in the industry is not in first echelon.
In fact, Li Ka-shing's positioning and original intention for Hutchmed is not on innovative drugs. So, big but not strong has always been the pain point of the Company.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - Big but Not Strong

<ul>
<li>Akeso has a very high starting point, and was regarded as the leader of domestic second-tier biotech companies. However, in current unfavorable market sentiment, it’s necessary to re-examine the Company.</li>
<li>In Akeso’s pipeline, there are some valuable and differentiated candidates, especially in the field of bispecific antibodies. Its R&amp;D capability is also well recognized.</li>
<li>However, due to the rich pipeline, related clinical trials will drain money fast. So, investors are advised to be cautious until Akeso has ensured sustainable and stable cash flow.</li>
</ul>


Akeso has a very high starting point, and was regarded as the leader of domestic second-tier biotech companies. However, in current unfavorable market sentiment, it’s necessary to re-examine the Company.
In Akeso’s pipeline, there are some valuable and differentiated candidates, especially in the field of bispecific antibodies. Its R&amp;D capability is also well recognized.
However, due to the rich pipeline, related clinical trials will drain money fast. So, investors are advised to be cautious until Akeso has ensured sustainable and stable cash flow.


Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926.HK) - Caution Is Advised Until Sufficient Financing Is Secured

Equity Capital Markets

Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The candidates in Biocytogen’s pipeline do not have advantages in development progress and also have to face fierce competition, so continuous large R&amp;D investment in the future would be inevitable.</li>
<li>However, the development model of Biocytogen is very novel and special, which could make it a rare target in the market if it is successfully listed.  </li>
<li>Therefore, the certainty of Biocytogen’s future growth is expected to improve gradually, and the mid- and long-term investment value would continue to increase due to the high moat.</li>
</ul>


The candidates in Biocytogen’s pipeline do not have advantages in development progress and also have to face fierce competition, so continuous large R&amp;D investment in the future would be inevitable.
However, the development model of Biocytogen is very novel and special, which could make it a rare target in the market if it is successfully listed.  
Therefore, the certainty of Biocytogen’s future growth is expected to improve gradually, and the mid- and long-term investment value would continue to increase due to the high moat.


Pre-IPO Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals - The Novel Development Model Offset the Pipeline's Shortcomings

<ul>
<li>We analyzed both the strength and the concerns about the core and key candidates in the pipeline.</li>
<li>We also analyzed the concerns about the valuation growth potential due to the strategy that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK)</a> chose.</li>
<li>For trading strategy, opportunities occur when the share price goes down,and then take profits when it goes up, but it is not recommended to hold it for a long time.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed both the strength and the concerns about the core and key candidates in the pipeline.
We also analyzed the concerns about the valuation growth potential due to the strategy that Keymed Biosciences Inc (2162 HK) chose.
For trading strategy, opportunities occur when the share price goes down,and then take profits when it goes up, but it is not recommended to hold it for a long time.


Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The Pipeline, the Concerns on Valuation Growth & The Trading Strategy

China

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include large infusion products, tablets, capsules, antibiotic injection, lyophilized powder for injection, and traditional Chinese medicine.

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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH)

Remegen (9995HK) Vs Keymed Biosciences (2162HK)-Deep Dive the Logic & Internationalization Prospects

Commercialization prospects of China autoimmune disease market are lower than expected. We analyzed RemeGen/Keymed's peak sales,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - Big but Not Strong

Li Ka-shing's original intention for Hutchmed is not on innovative drugs. Hutchmed's current pipeline also does not have core competitiveness. So,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926.HK) - Caution Is Advised Until Sufficient Financing Is Secured

Akeso has a high starting point, with strong R&D capability and valuable pipeline. However, related clinical trials will drain money fast....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals - The Novel Development Model Offset the Pipeline's Shortcomings

We analyzed the unique development strategy of Biocytogen, and also pointed out the concerns on its pipeline. However, its business model is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK) - The Pipeline, the Concerns on Valuation Growth & The Trading Strategy

This article mainly analyzed Keymed in terms of the business, the core and key candidates in the pipeline, the concerns about valuation growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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