Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China unveiled the "No. 1 central document", providing a good opportunity for domestic healthcare enterprises to develop rural medical market - Its market size cannot be ignored.</li>
<li>The 8th national VBP has been officially launched last week. Pfizer is the most affected of all foreign big pharma, which would have certain impact on its China business. </li>
<li>We have noticed that the unified medical insurance code of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula granules is accelerating, which seems to be paving the way for the future VBP.</li>
</ul>


China unveiled the "No. 1 central document", providing a good opportunity for domestic healthcare enterprises to develop rural medical market - Its market size cannot be ignored.
The 8th national VBP has been officially launched last week. Pfizer is the most affected of all foreign big pharma, which would have certain impact on its China business. 
We have noticed that the unified medical insurance code of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula granules is accelerating, which seems to be paving the way for the future VBP.


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.24) - No. 1 Central Document, 8th National VBP, TCM Formula Granules

<ul>
<li>Medical Insurance Bureau of Hebei released the document on centralized procurement of OK lens, which was the first detailed rules about OK lens VBP in China.</li>
<li>The results of orthodontic material centralized procurement of 16 provincial alliance led by Shaanxi were released. We analyzed the direct impacts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/angelalign-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31480:1" rel="noopener">Angelalign Technology (6699 HK)</a> and the outlook.</li>
<li>Even from the perspective of the whole process of the development of China's pharmaceutical industry after the reform and opening up, 2022 is an extraordinary year for the pharmaceutical industry.</li>
</ul>


Medical Insurance Bureau of Hebei released the document on centralized procurement of OK lens, which was the first detailed rules about OK lens VBP in China.
The results of orthodontic material centralized procurement of 16 provincial alliance led by Shaanxi were released. We analyzed the direct impacts on Angelalign Technology (6699 HK) and the outlook.
Even from the perspective of the whole process of the development of China's pharmaceutical industry after the reform and opening up, 2022 is an extraordinary year for the pharmaceutical industry.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25) - OK Lens VBP, Angelalign, Extraordinary 2022 for Pharmaceuticals

<ul>
<li>China's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. </li>
<li>We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.</li>
<li>With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. </li>
</ul>


China's relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. 
We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.
With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. 


China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy - Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities

China

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include large infusion products, tablets, capsules, antibiotic injection, lyophilized powder for injection, and traditional Chinese medicine.

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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.24) - No. 1 Central Document, 8th National VBP, TCM Formula Granules

China unveiled "No. 1 central document" to enhance the development of rural medical market. The 8th national VBP is coming. Pfizer is under heavy...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25) - OK Lens VBP, Angelalign, Extraordinary 2022 for Pharmaceuticals

The OK lens VBP in Hebei was the first to release detailed rules. The orthodontic material VBP result would affect Angelalign's outlook. 2022 is an...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy - Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities

China's U-turn on COVID policy will lead to rising infection/mortality rate.We analyzed the direct impact/investment opportunity. Under new...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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