HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.</li>
<li>Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.</li>
<li>Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.</li>
</ul>


Vancocin/Ceclor/FPN are currently the “cash cow” for Edding, but they’re facing the challenges of generics, VBP and increasing competition. Their current market leading position may be lost in the future.
Edding seeks business transformation as its CSO model doesn’t work under domestic negative policies. But peak sales of three innovative drugs Vascepa/Mulpleta/EDP 125 may not reach the level of Vancocin/Ceclor.
Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. Its R&amp;D capabilities have always been questioned. It’s unsure whether the market would give high valuation to a company without core competitiveness.


Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Kelun-Biotech, a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company, plans to raise up to US$400m via a Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we examined the company's two core products, namely SKB264, a TROP2-ADC, and A166, a HER2-ADC.</li>
<li>In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company's key products.</li>
</ul>


Kelun-Biotech, a China-based integrated innovative biopharmaceutical company, plans to raise up to US$400m via a Hong Kong listing.
In our previous note, we examined the company's two core products, namely SKB264, a TROP2-ADC, and A166, a HER2-ADC.
In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company's key products.


Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 9th national VBP is drawing near. As all drugs under national/provincial VBP are scheduled to be executed before 2025/12/31, there should be new policies in 2026 and beyond.</li>
<li>The capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in ADC field have at least stepped onto a platform to compete with international giants, which is clearly more progressive than during PD-1 era.</li>
<li>We analyzed key points of Ovctek. Its investment logic has changed and centralized procurement will break investors' expectations for Ovctek’s future performance growth. Valuation may continue to be under pressure.</li>
</ul>


The 9th national VBP is drawing near. As all drugs under national/provincial VBP are scheduled to be executed before 2025/12/31, there should be new policies in 2026 and beyond.
The capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in ADC field have at least stepped onto a platform to compete with international giants, which is clearly more progressive than during PD-1 era.
We analyzed key points of Ovctek. Its investment logic has changed and centralized procurement will break investors' expectations for Ovctek’s future performance growth. Valuation may continue to be under pressure.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.26)- 9th National VBP, China's Strength in ADC Field, Ovctek, Eyebright

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The real foothold of a pharmaceutical company lies in  “Development” rather than “Research”. After the clinical development has reached the first-class level, what remains is the vision of the leaders.</li>
<li>For China biotech, we think they would go through four stages- Stage 1 (2015 – 2019), Stage 2 (2019 - present), Stage 3 (2026-2028) and Stage 4 (starting from 2030).</li>
<li>If without Merck’s deal, Kelun’s profit improvement was mainly due to effective cost control. If Kelun could maintain double-digit revenue growth, with net profit margin around 10%, it’s already good.</li>
</ul>


The real foothold of a pharmaceutical company lies in  “Development” rather than “Research”. After the clinical development has reached the first-class level, what remains is the vision of the leaders.
For China biotech, we think they would go through four stages- Stage 1 (2015 – 2019), Stage 2 (2019 - present), Stage 3 (2026-2028) and Stage 4 (starting from 2030).
If without Merck’s deal, Kelun’s profit improvement was mainly due to effective cost control. If Kelun could maintain double-digit revenue growth, with net profit margin around 10%, it’s already good.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28) - Four Stages of China Biotech, The Real Foothold of R&D, Kelun

China

Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures pharmaceutical products. The Company's products include large infusion products, tablets, capsules, antibiotic injection, lyophilized powder for injection, and traditional Chinese medicine.

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Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422 CH)

Pre-IPO Edding Group - CSO Model Is Hard to Sustain, but Business Transformation Faces Challenges

As once a leading CSO company in China, Edding’s core advantage still lies in sales capabilities. But changes in domestic policy/business...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Kelun Biotech is raising up to US$400m to list in Hong Kong. In this note we provide valuation for its core products, SKB264 and A166.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (May.26)- 9th National VBP, China's Strength in ADC Field, Ovctek, Eyebright

The 9th national VBP is coming, but policy could change from 2026.We see positive factors in the performance of Chinese company in ADC field, who...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28) - Four Stages of China Biotech, The Real Foothold of R&D, Kelun

The real foothold of pharmaceutical company is “Development” rather than “Research”. China biotech will go through four stages: 2015-2019, 2019...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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