Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.</li><li>Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.</li><li>We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.</li></ul>

Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.

Macroeconomics

<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li>Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.</li><li>Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.</li><li>The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.</li></ul></div>

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry performance.Interesting trends in the gold market: We examine gold prices and propose a shift from wealth-driven to fear-driven consumption patterns. We also identify several events that could reduce fear and slow gold price momentum.The evolving situation at OCI: The fund holds a 6% position in OCI, a global fertilizer business that announced two significant asset sales in December 2023, from which we expect to receive a substantial capital return in 2024.

Germany

Siemens Energy AG operates as a renewable energy company. The Company offers power generation and transmission, technical consultancy, and operation and maintenance services. Siemens Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future...

Massif Capital Research

1st Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

Outperformance of Metals and Mining sector: The fund's gold, copper, and lithium investments outperformed their respective industry...

Massif Capital Research

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