Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

<p>The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.</p>

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Well placed to gain from the overall energy market transformation from electrification to automation &amp; digitisation Q1FY22 Results: Siemens reported decent Q3FY21* results amid disruptions...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Well placed to gain from the overall energy market transformation from electrification to automation &amp; digitisation Q1FY22 Results: Siemens reported decent Q3FY21* results amid disruptions...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Siemens: Decent Performance, Margins Impacted

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

<p>We roll forward our valuation (35x) to Sep-23E and arrive at a target price of INR 1,860 vs INR 1,811 Mar-23E. Given punchy valuations, we maintain REDUCE on SIL. We have cut our FY21/22/23E EPS estimates by 22.5/7.8/1.7% respectively on account of weak execution. Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered revenue/EBITDA/APAT miss of 14%/38/40%, impacted by disruptions induced by the second wave and the lockdown that followed. Margins across all segments increased YoY on a low base and dipped sequentially except for mobility.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We roll forward our valuation (35x) to Sep-23E and arrive at a target price of INR 1,860 vs INR 1,811 Mar-23E. Given punchy valuations, we maintain REDUCE on SIL. We have cut our FY21/22/23E EPS estimates by 22.5/7.8/1.7% respectively on account of weak execution. Siemens: Siemens India Ltd (SIL) delivered revenue/EBITDA/APAT miss of 14%/38/40%, impacted by disruptions induced by the second wave and the lockdown that followed. Margins across all segments increased YoY on a low base and dipped sequentially except for mobility.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We expect the bid momentum to pick up from here on. With central elections coming up in Q1FY25E, we expect strong ordering in FY22/23E. Q1FY22 marred by multiple challenges: When the sector was closing in on normalisation, the resurgence of COVID-19 led to a loss of momentum. Labour migration picked up in early part of Q1FY22; although with cases trending down, labour availability has normalised now. Most of the coverage universe lost precious early part of Q1FY22, resulting in execution coming down to 60-100% of Q4FY21 exit.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We expect the bid momentum to pick up from here on. With central elections coming up in Q1FY25E, we expect strong ordering in FY22/23E. Q1FY22 marred by multiple challenges: When the sector was closing in on normalisation, the resurgence of COVID-19 led to a loss of momentum. Labour migration picked up in early part of Q1FY22; although with cases trending down, labour availability has normalised now. Most of the coverage universe lost precious early part of Q1FY22, resulting in execution coming down to 60-100% of Q4FY21 exit.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Industrials (1QFY22 Results Preview): Loss in Momentum Due to Second Wave

India

Siemens Ltd. has its operations in various areas: in the transportation sector it delivers high speed trains, in the lighting sector it manufactures small light bulbs. In the healthcare sector Siemens executes complete solutions for hospitals, for the industry sector it builds airports as well as produces contracts & for the communication segment it provides public network to mobiles.

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Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Siemens: Decent Performance, Margins Impacted

Well placed to gain from the overall energy market transformation from electrification to automation & digitisation Q1FY22 Results: Siemens...

ICICI Securities Limited

HSIE Results Daily: Siemens

We roll forward our valuation (35x) to Sep-23E and arrive at a target price of INR 1,860 vs INR 1,811 Mar-23E. Given punchy valuations, we maintain...

HDFC Securities

Industrials (1QFY22 Results Preview): Loss in Momentum Due to Second Wave

We expect the bid momentum to pick up from here on. With central elections coming up in Q1FY25E, we expect strong ordering in FY22/23E. Q1FY22...

HDFC Securities

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