Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Index Rebalance

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power (600482 CH)

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank / Index Rebalance

Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (601825 CH)

<ul>
<li>CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.</li>
<li>The reference period for the June 2024 review is now complete. There are some changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since I published my last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-csi-300-500-jun-24-shorts-down-11-vs-index-since-mid-feb-change-the-hedge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>) ~3 weeks ago.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
The reference period for the June 2024 review is now complete. There are some changes to the expected ADDs/DELs list since I published my last insight (link) ~3 weeks ago.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations for index changes in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.


Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials led the inflows while Health Care led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec, Foxconn, Mindray.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials, Consumer Staples, Financials led the inflows while Health Care led the outflows.
We highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec, Foxconn, Mindray.


Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

China

Sieyuan Electric Company Limited manufactures and markets power supply and converting equipment as well as high voltage electrical apparatus and high voltage monitoring instruments.  The Company's  main products include arc suppression coils, variable frequency power sources, lightning arrester on-line monitoring instruments, and anti-disturbance test instruments.

Price Gauge
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Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd A (002028 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea

The official changes is expected at the end of this month. I expect the names with clear positive flow expectations to outperform those with clear...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea

The official changes is expected at the end of this month. I expect the names with clear positive flow expectations to outperform those with clear...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Mar): $3.7bn of Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for March and highlight flows for CATL, Wuliangye, Midea, Zijin Mining, Will Semi, Wuxi Apptec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 24: Final Expectations; US$3.4bn One-Way; New Trade Idea