Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our <em><strong>existing</strong></em> facilities and any discussions with customers at this point are based on the capacity that we believe is possible as a result of such upgrades.</li>
<li>Demand is likely to exceed supply for more than three years, because of such supply constraints. In terms of the price level,  prices would need to be dramatically higher.</li>
<li>We have no plans whatsoever to restart the Yoshinogari project. At current price levels, it is not viable. All costs are rising now, with Japan potentially headed for more inflation</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our existing facilities and any discussions with customers at this point are based on the capacity that we believe is possible as a result of such upgrades.
Demand is likely to exceed supply for more than three years, because of such supply constraints. In terms of the price level,  prices would need to be dramatically higher.
We have no plans whatsoever to restart the Yoshinogari project. At current price levels, it is not viable. All costs are rising now, with Japan potentially headed for more inflation


Silicon Wafers & The Looming Leading Edge Supply Crisis

<ul>
<li>GlobalWafers last month reported second quarter revenues of NT$15.2 billion, up 8.8% QoQ but down 5% YoY. Gross margin was 20.6%, flat sequentially but down 5.2 pp YoY</li>
<li>AI infrastructure remains main growth driver, supported by higher capital spending and continued growth in agentic AI inference and cloud‑edge integration. Memory supply remains tight; LTAs provide better demand visibility.</li>
<li>Our H1 gross margin was 20.7 %, -5.5 pp YoY. This mainly reflects pricing agreed during last year's weak market, as well as higher qualification and ramp‑up costs at our new sites.</li>
</ul>


GlobalWafers last month reported second quarter revenues of NT$15.2 billion, up 8.8% QoQ but down 5% YoY. Gross margin was 20.6%, flat sequentially but down 5.2 pp YoY
AI infrastructure remains main growth driver, supported by higher capital spending and continued growth in agentic AI inference and cloud‑edge integration. Memory supply remains tight; LTAs provide better demand visibility.
Our H1 gross margin was 20.7 %, -5.5 pp YoY. This mainly reflects pricing agreed during last year's weak market, as well as higher qualification and ramp‑up costs at our new sites.


GlobalWafers Q2 2026 Earnings Review & Full Transcript

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.</li>
<li>China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” </li>
<li>The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.</li>
</ul>


The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” 
The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.


SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,</li>
<li>Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY</li>
<li>Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafer area shipments in Q324 amounted to 3,214 million square inches (MSI), up 5.9% QoQ and up 6.8% YoY,
Q324 saw the combined revenues from the top four players in the segment reaching $2.5 billion, up 0.5% QoQ and up 6.5% YoY
Top 4 EBIT amounted to just $337 million, up 1.5% QoQ but down 38.9% YoY.


Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

<ul>
<li>During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.</li>
<li>Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.</li>
<li>The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase.</li>
</ul>


During Q224, the top 4 silicon wafer manufacturers saw their revenues increase 12.3% QoQ to ~$2.5 billion. This was down 3% YoY.
Silicon wafer area shipments in Q224 amounted to 3,035 million square inches (MSI), an increase of 7.1% QoQ but a decline of 8.9% YoY.
The Silicon wafer segment is entering a recovery phase.


Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Germany

Siltronic AG manufactures hyperpure silicon wafers. The Company offers products including non-polished and epitaxial coated wafers with different diameter sizes. Siltronic caters its products worldwide for use in computers, smartphones, flat-panel displays, navigation systems, automotive engine control systems, and many other applications.

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Siltronic AG (WAF GR)

Silicon Wafers & The Looming Leading Edge Supply Crisis

Demand is likely to exceed supply for more than three years, because of such supply constraints. In terms of the price level, prices would need to...

William Keating

GlobalWafers Q2 2026 Earnings Review & Full Transcript

GlobalWafers last month reported second quarter revenues of NT$15.2 billion, up 8.8% QoQ but down 5% YoY. Gross margin was 20.6%, flat sequentially...

William Keating

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers Q324 Area Shipments, Revenue, EBIT, Outlook & More

Q324 silicon wafer area shipments in 3,214 MSI , +5.9% QoQ & +6.8% YoY. Top 4 revenues $2.5 billion, +0.5% QoQ & + 6.5% YoY. Top 4 EBIT $337...

William Keating

Silicon Wafers. Recovery Is Nigh Yet Valuations Have Slumped To 5 Year Lows. But Why?

Silicon wafer area shipments increased 7.1% QoQ in Q224 while revenues of the top 4 players increased 12.3%. The segment is finally recovering but...

William Keating

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