Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.</li><li>This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.</li><li>Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.</li></ul>

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Gold seen as a safe haven and store of value amidst diversification away from the dollar</li><li>Concerns about potential election outcomes and fiscal deficit driving urgency to own gold</li><li>Bullish outlook for gold and silver, with attendees predicting high prices in the near future</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Gold seen as a safe haven and store of value amidst diversification away from the dollarConcerns about potential election outcomes and fiscal deficit driving urgency to own goldBullish outlook for gold and silver, with attendees predicting high prices in the near futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Gold gains as upcoming US election restokes the “debasement trade”

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>It’s been almost a month since sentiment around China showed signs of life, spurred by attempts from the PBoC and the Finance Ministry to revive domestic demand.</li><li>While many investors jumped into the China story, hoping that “this time would be different,” we held our position on the sidelines.</li><li>As it turns out, the much-hyped conference where the Finance Minister was expected to deliver large-scale stimulus—a “bazooka” spending package—proved to be mostly a “nothing burger.” We took that as the perfect opportunity to fade the move.</li></ul>

It’s been almost a month since sentiment around China showed signs of life, spurred by attempts from the PBoC and the Finance Ministry to revive domestic demand.While many investors jumped into the China story, hoping that “this time would be different,” we held our position on the sidelines.As it turns out, the much-hyped conference where the Finance Minister was expected to deliver large-scale stimulus—a “bazooka” spending package—proved to be mostly a “nothing burger.” We took that as the perfect opportunity to fade the move.

China Watch: No more stimulus until the USD allows for it

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve in the US, and USDJPY is truly on the move as a response—but it is still WAY too overbought if you compare current spot levels to the implied levels when using real-rate spreads as a predictor.</li><li>The problem at this juncture is that the trend in USD real rates has turned for now, and markets are likely reacting to the direction of real rates rather than the actual level, as the carry obtained in USDJPY is still phenomenal.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve in the US, and USDJPY is truly on the move as a response—but it is still WAY too overbought if you compare current spot levels to the implied levels when using real-rate spreads as a predictor.The problem at this juncture is that the trend in USD real rates has turned for now, and markets are likely reacting to the direction of real rates rather than the actual level, as the carry obtained in USDJPY is still phenomenal.

Positioning Watch – USD rates are suddenly under the loop again

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Silver (SILVER COMDTY)

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.

The Commodity Report

Global Commodities: Gold gains as upcoming US election restokes the “debasement trade”

Gold and silver are seen as safe haven investments amidst diversification away from the dollar, with a bullish outlook for both metals despite...

At Any Rate

China Watch: No more stimulus until the USD allows for it

It’s been almost a month since sentiment around China showed signs of life, spurred by attempts from the PBoC and the Finance Ministry to revive...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – USD rates are suddenly under the loop again

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve...

Steno Research

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