Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.</li><li>I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.</li><li>Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.</li></ul>

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.

<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower.</li>
<li>What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the treasury markets, I think it’s important to remember the typical cycle of asset classes.</li>
<li>Usually, treasuries bottom first, then follow stocks and at the end commodities. We saw the same cycle peaking in 2020 with bonds peaking first, followed by stocks and now commodities.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower.
What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the treasury markets, I think it’s important to remember the typical cycle of asset classes.
Usually, treasuries bottom first, then follow stocks and at the end commodities. We saw the same cycle peaking in 2020 with bonds peaking first, followed by stocks and now commodities.


<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower </li>
<li>The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast drastically and signaled that a recession as soon as January 2023 is likely.</li>
<li>Commodities plunged after that news because demand destruction could become worse over time. Nevertheless, we need to differentiate.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower 
The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast drastically and signaled that a recession as soon as January 2023 is likely.
Commodities plunged after that news because demand destruction could become worse over time. Nevertheless, we need to differentiate.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Silver (SILVER COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #64

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil,...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #59

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower. What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #58

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower. The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast...

The Commodity Report

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

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