Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>El Niño continues to receive a lot of attention and rightfully so.</li><li>However, people often confuse the climate event itself with its investment implications.</li><li>I frequently see investors arguing for broad agriculture exposure during El Niño periods.</li></ul>

El Niño continues to receive a lot of attention and rightfully so.However, people often confuse the climate event itself with its investment implications.I frequently see investors arguing for broad agriculture exposure during El Niño periods.

Why El Niño Is a Terrible Agriculture Trade

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict</li>
<li>Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the "hot" markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
CPI came in soft as expected, but rate hike expectations are mixed due to the ongoing conflict
Hong Kong and China platform names are getting a bid as money rotates out of the "hot" markets


<ul><li>If you ran price risk for anything touching cocoa in 2024, you already know the story in your body, not just your spreadsheet.</li><li>New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70% of that move through 2025.</li><li>For the desks caught on the wrong side of the timing, it was a year of margin calls, blown budgets, and uncomfortable conversations with the CFO.</li></ul>

If you ran price risk for anything touching cocoa in 2024, you already know the story in your body, not just your spreadsheet.New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70% of that move through 2025.For the desks caught on the wrong side of the timing, it was a year of margin calls, blown budgets, and uncomfortable conversations with the CFO.

What People Can Learn from 2024 El Nino Hedging Disaster

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision</li>
<li>As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.</li>
<li>While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision
As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.
While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.


Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

<ul><li>With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is enjoying its strongest year since launching in 2006.</li><li>The $1.6bn fund attracted roughly half of those inflows in the past month alone, according to Morningstar data.</li><li>This is highly unusual, given that the inflows are almost as large as the fund’s total assets under management.</li></ul>

With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is enjoying its strongest year since launching in 2006.The $1.6bn fund attracted roughly half of those inflows in the past month alone, according to Morningstar data.This is highly unusual, given that the inflows are almost as large as the fund’s total assets under management.

$1,5 bn Agri-ETF-Trade: Big Whale is Positioning for Strong El Nino

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Why El Niño Is a Terrible Agriculture Trade

El Niño continues to receive a lot of attention and rightfully so. However, people often confuse the climate event itself with its investment...

The Commodity Report

Overview #69 - Tug of War

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the impact of soft CPI data on rate expectations & where the...

Rikki Malik

What People Can Learn from 2024 El Nino Hedging Disaster

New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70%...

The Commodity Report

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

$1,5 bn Agri-ETF-Trade: Big Whale is Positioning for Strong El Nino

With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is...

The Commodity Report

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