Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Trump Wins - Do Farmers Lose? Trump won another presidency.</li><li>In a landslide win, the Republicans secured even both houses - the White House and the Senate.</li><li>I won’t go in details about what that result means for my beloved Americans and whether it’s good or bad.</li></ul>

Trump Wins - Do Farmers Lose? Trump won another presidency.In a landslide win, the Republicans secured even both houses - the White House and the Senate.I won’t go in details about what that result means for my beloved Americans and whether it’s good or bad.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Everybody and their mothers are waiting for the election now.</li><li>It’s driving investment decisions, markets, rates etc. – so let’s dig a little deeper into what you should look out for this Tuesday.</li><li>The betting market has shifted slightly over the past 24 hours, underscoring our point that the election is tighter than what Polymarket and similar platforms had priced in just 1-2 days ago.</li></ul>

Everybody and their mothers are waiting for the election now.It’s driving investment decisions, markets, rates etc. – so let’s dig a little deeper into what you should look out for this Tuesday.The betting market has shifted slightly over the past 24 hours, underscoring our point that the election is tighter than what Polymarket and similar platforms had priced in just 1-2 days ago.

Election Watch: 4 Things to look out for on Tuesday

<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

<ul>
<li>We are thrilled to announce that our macro trading portfolio is now live on the website, giving you access to our approach to allocation.</li>
<li>The full portfolio, investment philosophy, and thoughts on the role of macro in any portfolio are accessible here, but we want to take this opportunity to explain why the portfolio was launched, what you can expect from it, and how it will give you an edge in global markets.</li>
<li>The portfolio simulates an investment of $100,000 in accessible, long-only products like ETFs, stocks, and occasionally crypto or FX (with recommendations on how to trade these via ETFs or similar instruments).</li>
</ul>


We are thrilled to announce that our macro trading portfolio is now live on the website, giving you access to our approach to allocation.
The full portfolio, investment philosophy, and thoughts on the role of macro in any portfolio are accessible here, but we want to take this opportunity to explain why the portfolio was launched, what you can expect from it, and how it will give you an edge in global markets.
The portfolio simulates an investment of $100,000 in accessible, long-only products like ETFs, stocks, and occasionally crypto or FX (with recommendations on how to trade these via ETFs or similar instruments).


Macro Portfolio Update #1 – The Steno Research Macro Portfolio Is Live!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

United States

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

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Trump Wins - Do Farmers Lose?

Trump Wins - Do Farmers Lose? Trump won another presidency. In a landslide win, the Republicans secured even both houses - the White House and the...

The Commodity Report

Election Watch: 4 Things to look out for on Tuesday

Everybody and their mothers are waiting for the election now. It’s driving investment decisions, markets, rates etc. – so let’s dig a little...

Steno Research

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

Macro Portfolio Update #1 – The Steno Research Macro Portfolio Is Live!

We are thrilled to announce that our macro trading portfolio is now live on the website, giving you access to our approach to allocation. The full...

Steno Research

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

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