Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Over the last few years, Silvercorp has delivered steady revenue and earnings growth, supported by strong margins and consistent free cash flow.</li>
<li>It is now expanding beyond China with the development of the El Domo copper-gold project in Ecuador and ramping up investment at Ying and Kuanping.</li>
<li>Despite this growth visibility and a net cash balance sheet, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and FCF multiples.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few years, Silvercorp has delivered steady revenue and earnings growth, supported by strong margins and consistent free cash flow.
It is now expanding beyond China with the development of the El Domo copper-gold project in Ecuador and ramping up investment at Ying and Kuanping.
Despite this growth visibility and a net cash balance sheet, the stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and FCF multiples.


Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Silver prices have rallied ~24% over the past 12 months, driven by strong industrial demand (solar, EVs) and renewed investor interest amid inflation concerns.</li>
<li>With a fourth consecutive market deficit and accelerating demand from clean energy applications, the setup points to a multi-year bullish cycle—especially if real rates remain subdued.</li>
<li>This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the silver market’s recent performance, long-term demand-supply dynamics, key producers’ sensitivity to price movements, and valuation-driven investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Silver prices have rallied ~24% over the past 12 months, driven by strong industrial demand (solar, EVs) and renewed investor interest amid inflation concerns.
With a fourth consecutive market deficit and accelerating demand from clean energy applications, the setup points to a multi-year bullish cycle—especially if real rates remain subdued.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the silver market’s recent performance, long-term demand-supply dynamics, key producers’ sensitivity to price movements, and valuation-driven investment opportunities.


Silver Surges to Multi-Year Highs on Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Canada

Silvercorp Metals Inc. acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties in China.  The Company is developing its Ying Silver project located in the People's Republic of China.

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Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN)

Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

Silvercorp has shown consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanding internationally, but its stock is undervalued compared to peers.

Rahul Jain

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Silver Surges to Multi-Year Highs on Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

Silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and investor interest, signaling a potential multi-year bullish cycle with opportunities for...

Rahul Jain

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Silvercorp Metals (TSX/NYSEAM: SVM): Diversified Growth with Compelling Valuation

​Silvercorp has shown consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanding internationally, but its stock is undervalued compared to peers.

Rahul Jain

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Silver Surges to Multi-Year Highs on Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

​Silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and investor interest, signaling a potential multi-year bullish cycle with opportunities for...

Rahul Jain

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Silvercorp has shown consistent revenue and earnings growth, expanding internationally, but its stock is undervalued compared to peers.

Silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and investor interest, signaling a potential multi-year bullish cycle with opportunities for...