HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The MPP announced that it has signed agreements with 27 generic manufacturing companies including several Chinese companies for the manufacturing of molnupiravir and supply in 105 low- and-middle-income countries.</li>
<li>The profit margin would be limited because of its public benefit purpose. Therefore, it may not be able to bring huge incremental performance to the relevant domestic pharmaceutical companies.</li>
<li>The future risks and concerns on Merck's molnupiravir should also not be neglected. So, investors are advised to view this agreement with MPP rationally.</li>
</ul>


The MPP announced that it has signed agreements with 27 generic manufacturing companies including several Chinese companies for the manufacturing of molnupiravir and supply in 105 low- and-middle-income countries.
The profit margin would be limited because of its public benefit purpose. Therefore, it may not be able to bring huge incremental performance to the relevant domestic pharmaceutical companies.
The future risks and concerns on Merck's molnupiravir should also not be neglected. So, investors are advised to view this agreement with MPP rationally.


Would the Cheap Versions of Oral COVID-19 Antiviral Bring New Opportunities for Chinese Companies?

<ul>
<li>For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.</li>
<li>The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.</li>
<li>If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.</li>
</ul>


For Pfizer,orders on COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid would generate over US$50 billion revenue in 2022. So whether Pfizer would pursue for new M&amp;A opportunities become the focus of the market.
The oral COVID-19 antivirals are a great opportunity for the development of Chinese API companies, improving the overall valuation. However, CXOs are actually the first to benefit from this market.
If the COVID mutates in a more transmissible direction, the valuation and forecast of related companies in this industrial chain needs readjustment.However, if it doesn’t, the logic would change again.


Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

On December 28th 2020, the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) announced the results of 2020 medical insurance negotiations. The new medical insurance catalogue will be officially implemented on March 1st, 2021. It totally contains 2,800 types of drugs, including 1,426 types of western medicine and 1,374 types of proprietary Chinese medicine. A total of 162 drugs were negotiated this time, 119 of which successfully won the bidding, with a success rate of 73.46% and an average price reduction of 50.64%. The list of the 119 drugs is on the final page.

On December 28th 2020, the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) announced the results of 2020 medical insurance negotiations. The new medical insurance catalogue will be officially implemented on March 1st, 2021. It totally contains 2,800 types of drugs, including 1,426 types of western medicine and 1,374 types of proprietary Chinese medicine. A total of 162 drugs were negotiated this time, 119 of which successfully won the bidding, with a success rate of 73.46% and an average price reduction of 50.64%. The list of the 119 drugs is on the final page.

China Healthcare Policy Update - The Official Results of 2020 Medical Insurance Negotiations

First of all, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
1. Industry viewpoints:
<ul>
<li>While we are still waiting for the official results of the volume-based purchase (VBP) negotiations in 2020, let’s take a further look at the competitive landscape of PD-1/L1 in China.</li>
<li>The regenerative medical implant devices would be a development trend of medical implant devices in the future.</li>
<li>Affected by the centralized procurement policy in China, the growth rate of high-value medical consumables market is expected to slow year by year.</li>
</ul>
2. Company news:
News about the progress of new drugs from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascletis-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27265:1" rel="noopener">Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>.
3. Market review:
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 1.1%, while CSI 300 increased 0.84% over the same period of time.
4. Risk Disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

First of all, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
1. Industry viewpoints:

While we are still waiting for the official results of the volume-based purchase (VBP) negotiations in 2020, let’s take a further look at the competitive landscape of PD-1/L1 in China.
The regenerative medical implant devices would be a development trend of medical implant devices in the future.
Affected by the centralized procurement policy in China, the growth rate of high-value medical consumables market is expected to slow year by year.

2. Company news:
News about the progress of new drugs from Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Ascletis Pharma Inc (1672 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH).
3. Market review:
Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 1.1%, while CSI 300 increased 0.84% over the same period of time.
4. Risk Disclosure:
Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Equity Capital Markets

Simcere Zaiming Pharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Zaiming is operating in a "high investment, high losses" mode. This mode is questionable in terms of its sustainability in the context of a cooling capital market.</li>
<li>Whether the already marketed drugs or the drugs in R&amp;D stage, almost all core markets are facing intense competition. After products are launched, they will encounter challenges in market penetration.</li>
<li>We think valuation of Zaiming would be lower than peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals</a>, but higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Zaiming is operating in a "high investment, high losses" mode. This mode is questionable in terms of its sustainability in the context of a cooling capital market.
Whether the already marketed drugs or the drugs in R&amp;D stage, almost all core markets are facing intense competition. After products are launched, they will encounter challenges in market penetration.
We think valuation of Zaiming would be lower than peers such as Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, but higher than Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK).


Pre-IPO Simcere Zaiming Pharmaceutical - About the Pipeline, the Concerns and the Outlook

China

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group is an innovation and R&D-driven pharmaceutical company engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sale of pharmaceutical products. It focuses on therapeutic areas such as oncology, central nervous system diseases, autoimmune diseases, and anti-infection, with key products including Sanbexin, Endostar, and Bicun. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Nanjing, China.

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Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK)

Would the Cheap Versions of Oral COVID-19 Antiviral Bring New Opportunities for Chinese Companies?

Some Chinese companies are allowed to make cheap versions of Merck’s molnupiravir based on the MPP agreement.We analyzed the impact and outlook,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

This insight analyzed Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir after FDA EUA, the global market potential, the impact on China market and related...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Policy Update - The Official Results of 2020 Medical Insurance Negotiations

The article analyzed the results of 2020 medical insurance negotiations with the list of drugs that won the bidding. If interested in China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25)

This article analyzed healthcare industry viewpoints such as competitive landscape of PD-1/L1 in China, news of Alphamab, Hengrui, Innovent and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Simcere Zaiming Pharmaceutical - About the Pipeline, the Concerns and the Outlook

Zaiming's high investment, high losses strategy may not be sustainable in a competitive market. Products will encounter challenges in market...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Would the Cheap Versions of Oral COVID-19 Antiviral Bring New Opportunities for Chinese Companies?

Some Chinese companies are allowed to make cheap versions of Merck’s molnupiravir based on the MPP agreement.We analyzed the impact and outlook,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Oral COVID-19 Antivirals and the Impact on China

This insight analyzed Pfizer's Paxlovid and Merck’s Molnupiravir after FDA EUA, the global market potential, the impact on China market and related...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Policy Update - The Official Results of 2020 Medical Insurance Negotiations

The article analyzed the results of 2020 medical insurance negotiations with the list of drugs that won the bidding. If interested in China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.25)

This article analyzed healthcare industry viewpoints such as competitive landscape of PD-1/L1 in China, news of Alphamab, Hengrui, Innovent and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Simcere Zaiming Pharmaceutical - About the Pipeline, the Concerns and the Outlook

​Zaiming's high investment, high losses strategy may not be sustainable in a competitive market. Products will encounter challenges in market...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zaiming's high investment, high losses strategy may not be sustainable in a competitive market. Products will encounter challenges in market...