Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Simpson Manufacturing Company reported full-year 2025 net sales of $2.3 billion, representing a 4.5% increase from 2024, driven primarily by pricing actions (~3%), acquisitions (~1%), and foreign exchange (~1%), partially offset by a 1% volume decline amid weaker housing starts.</li><li>North American net sales grew to $1.8 billion, up 4.5%, although volumes declined due to regional housing market softness, especially in the Southern and Western U.S., areas typically characterized by higher content per unit.</li><li>The company emphasized its growing focus on premium offerings such as software, services, and equipment, which contribute to revenue but are not captured in traditional volume metrics.</li></ul>

Simpson Manufacturing Company reported full-year 2025 net sales of $2.3 billion, representing a 4.5% increase from 2024, driven primarily by pricing actions (~3%), acquisitions (~1%), and foreign exchange (~1%), partially offset by a 1% volume decline amid weaker housing starts.North American net sales grew to $1.8 billion, up 4.5%, although volumes declined due to regional housing market softness, especially in the Southern and Western U.S., areas typically characterized by higher content per unit.The company emphasized its growing focus on premium offerings such as software, services, and equipment, which contribute to revenue but are not captured in traditional volume metrics.

Simpson Strong-Tie: Flat Housing Market, Yet Above-Market Growth—What’s Driving The Outperformance?

<ul><li>Simpson Manufacturing Co.'s third quarter of 2025 results illustrate a complex mix of positive growth metrics and notable headwinds, shedding light on the current state and potential trajectory of the company.</li><li>The company reported net sales of $623.5 million, a growth of 6.2% year-over-year.</li><li>This increase was primarily driven by a June price increase and favorable foreign exchange rates, suggesting adeptness in adjusting pricing strategies amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, particularly with sluggish residential housing markets in both the U.S. and Europe.</li></ul>

Simpson Manufacturing Co.'s third quarter of 2025 results illustrate a complex mix of positive growth metrics and notable headwinds, shedding light on the current state and potential trajectory of the company.The company reported net sales of $623.5 million, a growth of 6.2% year-over-year.This increase was primarily driven by a June price increase and favorable foreign exchange rates, suggesting adeptness in adjusting pricing strategies amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, particularly with sluggish residential housing markets in both the U.S. and Europe.

Simpson Manufacturing Is Slashing Costs AND Expanding—Can They Keep It Up?

<ul><li>Simpson Manufacturing Co.'s second-quarter 2025 earnings highlight the firm's resilience and adaptability amidst a challenging residential housing market.</li><li>The company reported net sales of $631.1 million, marking a year-over-year growth despite flat volumes compared to the prior year.</li><li>This sales increase was primarily driven by pricing actions, a $9 million contribution from 2024 acquisitions, and partial-month benefits from price increases.</li></ul>

Simpson Manufacturing Co.'s second-quarter 2025 earnings highlight the firm's resilience and adaptability amidst a challenging residential housing market.The company reported net sales of $631.1 million, marking a year-over-year growth despite flat volumes compared to the prior year.This sales increase was primarily driven by pricing actions, a $9 million contribution from 2024 acquisitions, and partial-month benefits from price increases.

Simpson Manufacturing: Inside the Digital Shift–How Software Enhancements Are Powering Growth!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"</li>
<li>All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).</li>
<li>Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.</li>
</ul>


Since 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed weekly that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally"
All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&amp;P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled).
Now, SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This is what a strong market looks like.


Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

<ul>
<li>We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).</li>
<li>Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).</li>
<li>A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.</li>
</ul>


We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&amp;P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.


SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

United States

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., through its Simpson Strong-Tie Company Inc. subsidiary, designs, engineers, and manufactures wood-to-wood, wood-to-concrete, and wood-to-masonry connectors and shear walls.  The Company's other subsidiary, Simpson Dura-Vent Company, Inc., designs, engineers, and manufactures venting systems for gas and woodburning appliances.

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Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc (SSD US)

Simpson Strong-Tie: Flat Housing Market, Yet Above-Market Growth—What’s Driving The Outperformance?

Simpson Manufacturing Company reported full-year 2025 net sales of $2.3 billion, representing a 4.5% increase from 2024, driven primarily by...

Baptista Research

Simpson Manufacturing Is Slashing Costs AND Expanding—Can They Keep It Up?

Simpson Manufacturing Co.'s third quarter of 2025 results illustrate a complex mix of positive growth metrics and notable headwinds, shedding...

Baptista Research

Simpson Manufacturing: Inside the Digital Shift–How Software Enhancements Are Powering Growth!

Simpson Manufacturing Co.'s second-quarter 2025 earnings highlight the firm's resilience and adaptability amidst a challenging residential housing...

Baptista Research

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up; $SPX Breakout Above 2-Yr Resistance at 4600-4607, $COMP Breakout Above 14,400. This is what a strong...

Vermilion Research

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the $SPX testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200). On the off chance...

Vermilion Research

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