Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past three months.&nbsp;The Phillips curve has flattened since the financial crisis, which confirms that inflation has become less responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. A structurally lower participation rate associated with the demographics of ageing suggests that there is far more slack in the labour market than implied by the unemployment rate of 5.5%.&nbsp; The performance of premium rated growth stocks around the taper &lsquo;tantrum&rsquo; in May 2013 reveals just how sensitive these stocks are to the future course of US monetary policy. The worst four performing stocks among the ASX200 at the time were: CTD, DMP, IIN and REA, reflecting their long duration attributes. Discount rate shocks therefore represent a key risk for growth investors. But the recent moderation&nbsp;of US&nbsp;employment growth, still considerable slack in the US labour market, and little prospect that core inflation will move back to the Fed Reserve's 2% objective anytime soon, should buy more time for not just the Fed but also growth investors.

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is worth in the high ¥20,000s by having minorities get the value of TICO and the tax treatment benefits proposed. As-is, TICO minorities are getting screwed.</li>
<li>The $64k question is whether AusSuper which supported <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope (BSL AU)</a>'s rejection of a $30 bid, and would only support an M&amp;A proposal that was “materially higher", is now supportive. </li>
<li>It's not surprising that financial institutions are selling some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a> as it continues its climb higher AND around the time of the imminent MSCI promotion.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is worth in the high ¥20,000s by having minorities get the value of TICO and the tax treatment benefits proposed. As-is, TICO minorities are getting screwed.
The $64k question is whether AusSuper which supported Bluescope (BSL AU)'s rejection of a $30 bid, and would only support an M&amp;A proposal that was “materially higher", is now supportive. 
It's not surprising that financial institutions are selling some Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) as it continues its climb higher AND around the time of the imminent MSCI promotion.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Steel".</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:678:1" rel="noopener">AMP Ltd (AMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sims-metal-management-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18184:1" rel="noopener">Sims Metal Management (SGM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm Ltd (NUF AU)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Meals"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Steel".
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU), Sims Metal Management (SGM AU), Nufarm Ltd (NUF AU).



Aussie Shorts (16 Feb 2026): Commonwealth Bank, Fortescue Metals, AMP, Sims Metal Management, Nufarm

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

ICICI Lombard General Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

ICICI Lombard General Insurance (ICICIGI IN)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and six sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and six sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Jan 2025)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Jan '26)

Australia

Sims Metal Management Ltd. collects, sorts and processes scrap metal materials which are recycled for resale. The Company's divisions include ferrous recycling, non-ferrous recycling, secondary processing of non-ferrous metals and plastics, international trading of metal commodities and the merchandising of steel semi-fabricated products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Sims Metal Management (SGM AU)

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts (16 Feb 2026): Commonwealth Bank, Fortescue Metals, AMP, Sims Metal Management, Nufarm

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU),...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Jan 2025)

Insight on statistical pair trading opportunities across ten pairs in three markets and six sectors, offering unique perspective on relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Jan '26)

Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US employment growth moderates, buying the Fed and growth investors more time

The March non-farm payrolls release confirmed that employment in the United States continues to expand but at a more moderate pace over the past...

Sam Ferraro

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, Bluescope Steel, Ibiden, CK Hutch

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts (16 Feb 2026): Commonwealth Bank, Fortescue Metals, AMP, Sims Metal Management, Nufarm

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), AMP Ltd (AMP AU),...

David Blennerhassett

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Jan 2025)

​Insight on statistical pair trading opportunities across ten pairs in three markets and six sectors, offering unique perspective on relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Jan '26)

​Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Insight on statistical pair trading opportunities across ten pairs in three markets and six sectors, offering unique perspective on relative value.

Statistical methodology identifies six pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.