China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>News reported that Alibaba is in talks with Shanghai Media Group to sell its 30% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a>, which we have expected since Weibo's Hong Kong listing.</li>
<li>Since 2013, Alibaba has started to invest in Weibo before its NASDAQ IPO and continued to increase the holdings. Alibaba remains a strategic partner with Weibo on platform advertisement.</li>
<li>We view the potential transaction net positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> as it will realign Weibo strategic direction and Alibaba impact will be minimized. Weibo valuation is also attractive.</li>
</ul>


News reported that Alibaba is in talks with Shanghai Media Group to sell its 30% stake in Weibo Corp (WB US), which we have expected since Weibo's Hong Kong listing.
Since 2013, Alibaba has started to invest in Weibo before its NASDAQ IPO and continued to increase the holdings. Alibaba remains a strategic partner with Weibo on platform advertisement.
We view the potential transaction net positive for Weibo Corp (WB US) as it will realign Weibo strategic direction and Alibaba impact will be minimized. Weibo valuation is also attractive.


Weibo (WB US): Alibaba Potential Stake Sale, More Visibility on Strategic Direction

Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

Research on International Stock Ideas

Value Punks’ mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on international stock ideas in a digestible, reader-friendly format.

At Value Punks, we blend our background in traditional value-investing with an openness to embrace a constantly and rapidly evolving investment and business landscape.

Institutional-Grade Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2021 has been a year of regulations for Chinese stocks. Alongside the intensified regulatory landscape, we have seen concerns of VIE risk resurfacing</li>
<li>There are those who have brought out the loudspeaker to drive the narrative that the risks associated with VIE is growing. We disagree.</li>
<li>The narrative that an official VIE ban is in order stems from confusion and to us seems like an uninformed attempt at connecting the regulatory dots.</li>
</ul>


2021 has been a year of regulations for Chinese stocks. Alongside the intensified regulatory landscape, we have seen concerns of VIE risk resurfacing
There are those who have brought out the loudspeaker to drive the narrative that the risks associated with VIE is growing. We disagree.
The narrative that an official VIE ban is in order stems from confusion and to us seems like an uninformed attempt at connecting the regulatory dots.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> is offering 11 million shares to raise $471 million through an HKEx secondary listing. The primary/secondary spilt is 50:50 (Sina is the secondary seller).  </li>
<li>Weibo is navigating macro and regulatory headwinds by delivering better than expected top-line growth, strong margins and cash generation. </li>
<li>While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is undemanding in comparison to historical P/E and PEG ratios. </li>
</ul>



Weibo Corp (WB US) is offering 11 million shares to raise $471 million through an HKEx secondary listing. The primary/secondary spilt is 50:50 (Sina is the secondary seller).  
Weibo is navigating macro and regulatory headwinds by delivering better than expected top-line growth, strong margins and cash generation. 
While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is undemanding in comparison to historical P/E and PEG ratios. 


Weibo Secondary Listing: Braving Uncertainty

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Microblogger <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> - China's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667:1" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> equivalent - has filed an application for a secondary listing of its Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong</li>
<li>Recently privatised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sina-corp-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22691:1" rel="noopener">SINA Corp (Class A) (SINA US)</a> controls 70.6% of the vote, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> a further 15.7%.</li>
<li>A Reuters article back in July flagged a possible take-private transaction for Weibo at US$90-$100/share.</li>
</ul>


Microblogger Weibo Corp (WB US) - China's Twitter Inc (TWTR US) equivalent - has filed an application for a secondary listing of its Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong
Recently privatised SINA Corp (Class A) (SINA US) controls 70.6% of the vote, with Alibaba Group (9988 HK) a further 15.7%.
A Reuters article back in July flagged a possible take-private transaction for Weibo at US$90-$100/share.


Weibo (WB US) Files For Hong Kong Listing

Event-Driven

<div>
Back on the 21 June, IR solutions provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc (JOBS US)</a> <a href="https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-195283/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had entered into a definitive privatisation agreement at US$79.05/share. 
Just last week in <a href="https://skr.ma/d8W2a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">51job (JOB US): Searching For Answers</a>, when the gross spread to terms was 30.8% -  the widest since the take-private transaction was first floated on the <a href="https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-20-105912/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">17 September 202</a>0 - I thought this was the right price to get involved. 
Despite China's ongoing scrutiny of the internet industry, I had not seen any specific issue pushing back on this deal. Additionally,  wasn't helping people find jobs more easily in-line with common prosperity?
51job has now <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001295484/000110465921132333/tm2131363d1_sc13da.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updated</a> its Schedule 13D - an SEC form to be filed when a person or group acquires more than 5% of a company. The amendment discusses facility agreements entered into with China Merchants Bank, the lead arranger, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co (joint lead arranger). The facilities provide funding of US$2.275bn, just shy of the US$2.6bn required to complete the transaction.
Shares gained 9.8% on this development, the only newsflow since the firm agreement was entered into. 
Timing still remains unknown. However, this is a buy here.
</div>
More below the fold


Back on the 21 June, IR solutions provider 51 Job Inc (JOBS US) announced it had entered into a definitive privatisation agreement at US$79.05/share. 
Just last week in 51job (JOB US): Searching For Answers, when the gross spread to terms was 30.8% -  the widest since the take-private transaction was first floated on the 17 September 2020 - I thought this was the right price to get involved. 
Despite China's ongoing scrutiny of the internet industry, I had not seen any specific issue pushing back on this deal. Additionally,  wasn't helping people find jobs more easily in-line with common prosperity?
51job has now updated its Schedule 13D - an SEC form to be filed when a person or group acquires more than 5% of a company. The amendment discusses facility agreements entered into with China Merchants Bank, the lead arranger, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co (joint lead arranger). The facilities provide funding of US$2.275bn, just shy of the US$2.6bn required to complete the transaction.
Shares gained 9.8% on this development, the only newsflow since the firm agreement was entered into. 
Timing still remains unknown. However, this is a buy here.

More below the fold

51job (JOB US): Shares Pop As Financing Progresses

China

SINA Corporation is a global Internet media company operating Chinese-language destination sites. The Company offers a network of branded content and services targeting people of Chinese descent worldwide. SINA.com offers online news, entertainment, community, and commerce through web sites that are produced and updated by local teams in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and North America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US)

Weibo (WB US): Alibaba Potential Stake Sale, More Visibility on Strategic Direction

We view the potential stake sale transaction net positive for Weibo Corp (WB US) as it will realign Weibo strategic direction and Alibaba impact...

Roger Xie

Governance: The bottom-line on VIE

2021 has been a year of regulations for Chinese stocks. Alongside the intensified regulatory landscape, we have seen concerns of VIE risk resurfacing

Value Punks

Weibo Secondary Listing: Braving Uncertainty

Weibo is offering 11m shares through an HKEx secondary listing. While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is...

Arun George

Weibo (WB US) Files For Hong Kong Listing

At the time of the rumoured Offer for Weibo, Travis said he'd rather own this 10-15% lower than the current US$58.07/share price. That was...

David Blennerhassett

51job (JOB US): Shares Pop As Financing Progresses

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 19.8%/56.3%, assuming completion at the end of 1Q22. That still looks attractive,

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)