China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The long-awaited China A-share Index future finally received approval from regulators from both Hong Kong and China (<a href="https://www.hkex.com.hk/News/News-Release/2021/210820news?sc_lang=en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news link</a>). The to-be-launched product is MSCI China A50 Connect Index, which is different from investors' expectation of MSCI China Index future. However, we still believe the move is a game changer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> derivative business as investors' increasing exposure in China A-share cash equity market and index future. This will also put a direct competition pressure on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> as its popular FTSE A50 Index future accounting around 17% of its total revenue. We believe offshore investors would like to gradually shift their China A-share Index exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> </li>
<li>We estimate that ADV (Average Daily Volume) of MSCI China A50 Connect contract will be ramped up at 1.5-2.0x the volume of FTSE A50 at its launch, given the ADT (Average Daily Turnover) of stock connect northbound (China A-share cash equity market) has reached RMB 120bn. There is increasing demands from offshore investors for hedging and speculation. In a long-run, we believe ADV of MSCI China A50 could be more than 5x of ADV of FTSE A50 as offshore investors' exposure on China A-share cash equity grows. We expect the derivative business contribution to revenue at HKEx will likely grow to 25% from current 16%, which will reshape HKEx with more balanced revenue stream from both cash equity and derivative. </li>
<li>For 1H2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> delivered a broadly in-line results. It reported 2Q2021 profits of HK$2.77bn, down 7% year-over-year. Cash equity ADT was quite strong and up 31% year-over-year, but down 34% from 1Q 2021. But the derivatives business did not have the same volume pick-up with HK derivatives ADV -5% year-over-year and LME ADV -2% year-over-year. We are the believer that HKEx will play a key role on offshore China listings. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty is likely to accelerate the Chinese ADS' to diversify their listing risk and to benefit HKEx as a preferred offshore listing venue.  We forecast <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (excluding Stock Connect Northbound volume)  and remain bullish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>  and have TP HKD 550. </li>
</ul>


The long-awaited China A-share Index future finally received approval from regulators from both Hong Kong and China (news link). The to-be-launched product is MSCI China A50 Connect Index, which is different from investors' expectation of MSCI China Index future. However, we still believe the move is a game changer for HKEX (388 HK) derivative business as investors' increasing exposure in China A-share cash equity market and index future. This will also put a direct competition pressure on SGX (SGX SP) as its popular FTSE A50 Index future accounting around 17% of its total revenue. We believe offshore investors would like to gradually shift their China A-share Index exposure to HKEX (388 HK) from SGX (SGX SP) 
We estimate that ADV (Average Daily Volume) of MSCI China A50 Connect contract will be ramped up at 1.5-2.0x the volume of FTSE A50 at its launch, given the ADT (Average Daily Turnover) of stock connect northbound (China A-share cash equity market) has reached RMB 120bn. There is increasing demands from offshore investors for hedging and speculation. In a long-run, we believe ADV of MSCI China A50 could be more than 5x of ADV of FTSE A50 as offshore investors' exposure on China A-share cash equity grows. We expect the derivative business contribution to revenue at HKEx will likely grow to 25% from current 16%, which will reshape HKEx with more balanced revenue stream from both cash equity and derivative. 
For 1H2021, HKEX (388 HK) delivered a broadly in-line results. It reported 2Q2021 profits of HK$2.77bn, down 7% year-over-year. Cash equity ADT was quite strong and up 31% year-over-year, but down 34% from 1Q 2021. But the derivatives business did not have the same volume pick-up with HK derivatives ADV -5% year-over-year and LME ADV -2% year-over-year. We are the believer that HKEx will play a key role on offshore China listings. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty is likely to accelerate the Chinese ADS' to diversify their listing risk and to benefit HKEx as a preferred offshore listing venue.  We forecast HKEX (388 HK) Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (excluding Stock Connect Northbound volume)  and remain bullish on HKEX (388 HK)  and have TP HKD 550. 


HKEx (388.HK): A-Share Index Future Launch, A Game Changer for HKEx Derivative Business

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> reported a strong set of 1H2021 numbers with net income up by +63.1% YoY on the back of a +30.9% increase in operating revenues.</p>
<p>The bottom-line performance was driven by the increase in operating revenues together with positive investment income. </p>
<p>The company saw particularly strong growth in listing fees due to a number of large size IPOs, whilst transaction fees and SCCP clearing fees increased due to higher market volumes, driven by particularly strong retail activity.</p>
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<p>The real growth driver for revenues and profits in 1H2021 came from a significant increase in capital raisings.</p>
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<p>Even after the flush of offerings in 1H2021, the listing pipeline is robust for 2H2021 and going into 2022, with a number of already approved issues plus upcoming planned listings as well as a number of planned REITs in the pipeline, which have already been featured in the news.</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> has also laid out a number of key initiatives set to launch this year which will provide a potential boost to activity on the exchange including new rules on short selling.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> will launch a new marketing campaign to encourage more companies to list and especially SMEs. </p>
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<p>This latest set of results underline the positive story with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> which continues to look promising with a strong IPO and placement pipeline for 2H2021 and going into 2022. </p>
<p>If we factor in the company's cash per share into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> valuation then the company is trading on an ex-cash FY21E PER of 16.0x and FY22E PER of 14.5x making it look significantly more attractive versus its peers together with stronger growth prospects. </p>
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The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) reported a strong set of 1H2021 numbers with net income up by +63.1% YoY on the back of a +30.9% increase in operating revenues.
The bottom-line performance was driven by the increase in operating revenues together with positive investment income. 
The company saw particularly strong growth in listing fees due to a number of large size IPOs, whilst transaction fees and SCCP clearing fees increased due to higher market volumes, driven by particularly strong retail activity.





The real growth driver for revenues and profits in 1H2021 came from a significant increase in capital raisings.

Even after the flush of offerings in 1H2021, the listing pipeline is robust for 2H2021 and going into 2022, with a number of already approved issues plus upcoming planned listings as well as a number of planned REITs in the pipeline, which have already been featured in the news.



The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) has also laid out a number of key initiatives set to launch this year which will provide a potential boost to activity on the exchange including new rules on short selling.
Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) will launch a new marketing campaign to encourage more companies to list and especially SMEs. 





This latest set of results underline the positive story with Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) which continues to look promising with a strong IPO and placement pipeline for 2H2021 and going into 2022. 
If we factor in the company's cash per share into the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) valuation then the company is trading on an ex-cash FY21E PER of 16.0x and FY22E PER of 14.5x making it look significantly more attractive versus its peers together with stronger growth prospects. 


Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Thriving on Retailers and IPOs

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kyle-rudden" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4495" rel="noopener">Kyle Rudden</a>, who continues his series on ESG investing.</p><p>On this session, Kyle will give an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate, explore its implications for Corporate ESG Reporting and ESG Investing, and examine Metrics and Materiality in practice through examples and case studies.</p><p>This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.</p><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3><div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=88191048159" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div><p>Kyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.</p>

For our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are thrilled to welcome back Insight Provider Kyle Rudden, who continues his series on ESG investing.On this session, Kyle will give an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate, explore its implications for Corporate ESG Reporting and ESG Investing, and examine Metrics and Materiality in practice through examples and case studies.This webinar is organised jointly by Smartkarma and SGX.The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 25 August 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.Register for the Webinar hereKyle Rudden is an ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) analyst with an alpha-centric approach to ESG research. After all, ESG investing is, first and foremost, investing. "Alpha-centric" does not mean apathetic, however. Quite the contrary. Kyle believes global sustainability – i.e., environmental stewardship, social equality, and economic prosperity – is imperative, and private-sector capital is its cornerstone. Private-sector capital still has fiduciary responsibilities. Profitability is necessary for sustained impact. The Triple Bottom Line. People, Planet, AND Profit.

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><strong><em>*Challenging Quarter: </em></strong>Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 2Q21 weak earnings of HKD 2.8 bn, declining HKD 1.1 bn (27.9%) linked quarter. Results were even worse when we exclude investment income (declined HKD 73 mn or 15.7% linked quarter) – decreasing HKD 997 mn (29.5%) to HKD 2.4 bn. Results were highlighted by HKEX’ marginally negative operating jaws, as recurring revenue declined HKD 1.9 bn (29.7%) while operating expenses increased HKD 8 mn (0.7%) over the period. HKEX’ 2Q21 witnessed weak revenues almost across the board; and</p><p><strong><em>*Risks Are Increasing: </em></strong>In addition to an extended valuation when ADT has begun to turn and having a new CEO with no exchange experiences, HKEX needs to contend with the government’s examination of a stamp duty increase, mainland China’s contemplation of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center; and the Sino-ification of HKEX trading as tension mount between the US and mainland China.</p>

*Challenging Quarter: Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK) [HKEX] reported 2Q21 weak earnings of HKD 2.8 bn, declining HKD 1.1 bn (27.9%) linked quarter. Results were even worse when we exclude investment income (declined HKD 73 mn or 15.7% linked quarter) – decreasing HKD 997 mn (29.5%) to HKD 2.4 bn. Results were highlighted by HKEX’ marginally negative operating jaws, as recurring revenue declined HKD 1.9 bn (29.7%) while operating expenses increased HKD 8 mn (0.7%) over the period. HKEX’ 2Q21 witnessed weak revenues almost across the board; and*Risks Are Increasing: In addition to an extended valuation when ADT has begun to turn and having a new CEO with no exchange experiences, HKEX needs to contend with the government’s examination of a stamp duty increase, mainland China’s contemplation of a new stock exchange to attract overseas-listed firms (including Hong Kong) which will bolster Shanghai’s status as a global financial center; and the Sino-ification of HKEX trading as tension mount between the US and mainland China.

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Glitter Is Gone

<p><strong><em>*Poor Result: </em></strong>Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported a weak FY 2H21 result, declining SGD 35.0 mn (14.6%) on an HOH basis. Higher than expected costs was the primary culprit for the overall disappointing result, increasing SGD 28.7 mn (11.6%) HOH pushing the expense to revenue ratio 410 bp higher to 51.8%. Cost pressures will not end, as SGX gave guidance that costs are due to increase between 9%-11%, as revenue begins to contract; and</p><p><strong><em>*Peripatetic:</em></strong> Recently, SGX announced its acquisition of MaxxTrader, its third acquisition after BidFX and Scientific Beta in 2020. Management is also considering getting involved Special Purpose Acquisition Companies<em> </em>(SPACs). Significant strategic alternatives are needed at SGX, if it is to avoid being hollowed out by the Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK).</p>

*Poor Result: Singapore Exchange (SGX.SP) [SGX] reported a weak FY 2H21 result, declining SGD 35.0 mn (14.6%) on an HOH basis. Higher than expected costs was the primary culprit for the overall disappointing result, increasing SGD 28.7 mn (11.6%) HOH pushing the expense to revenue ratio 410 bp higher to 51.8%. Cost pressures will not end, as SGX gave guidance that costs are due to increase between 9%-11%, as revenue begins to contract; and*Peripatetic: Recently, SGX announced its acquisition of MaxxTrader, its third acquisition after BidFX and Scientific Beta in 2020. Management is also considering getting involved Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). Significant strategic alternatives are needed at SGX, if it is to avoid being hollowed out by the Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (388.HK).

Singapore Exchange – Completely Distracted

Singapore

Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses.  The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.

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SGX (SGX SP)

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Thriving on Retailers and IPOs

The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) continues to look undervalued relative to other listed regional exchanges with a strong IPO and placement...

Angus Mackintosh

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

On 25 August, 5pm SGT, join us and Kyle Rudden for an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate in ESG investing. This webinar is...

Smartkarma Research

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Glitter Is Gone

HONG KONG EXCHANGES: HKEX reported 2Q21 weak earnings, declining 27.9%. Results were highlighted by HKEX’ marginally negative operating jaws. HKEX’...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange – Completely Distracted

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX FY 2H21 result declined 14.6% HOH due to rising costs. This is a distracted company with three bolt-ons in last year....

Thomas J. Monaco

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HKEx (388.HK): A-Share Index Future Launch, A Game Changer for HKEx Derivative Business

We expect China A-share index future will reshape HKEx with more balanced revenue stream from both cash equity and derivative. We remain bullish on...

Roger Xie

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) - Thriving on Retailers and IPOs

The Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) continues to look undervalued relative to other listed regional exchanges with a strong IPO and placement...

Angus Mackintosh

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Metrics and Materiality - What Matters to Whom and Why

On 25 August, 5pm SGT, join us and Kyle Rudden for an overview of the “Metrics and Materiality” issue and debate in ESG investing. This webinar is...

Smartkarma Research

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing – Glitter Is Gone

HONG KONG EXCHANGES: HKEX reported 2Q21 weak earnings, declining 27.9%. Results were highlighted by HKEX’ marginally negative operating jaws. HKEX’...

Thomas J. Monaco

Singapore Exchange – Completely Distracted

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE: SGX FY 2H21 result declined 14.6% HOH due to rising costs. This is a distracted company with three bolt-ons in last year....

Thomas J. Monaco