Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly (AFR), <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a></strong> is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. </li>
<li>SingTel quickly <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20Announcement%2020240313.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=791796" target="_blank" rel="noopener">countered</a> there is no impending deal; and "<em>Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term</em>."</li>
<li>Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly (AFR), Singtel (ST SP) is in advanced talks to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telco, to Brookfield for A$16bn-A$18bn. 
SingTel quickly countered there is no impending deal; and "Optus remains an integral and strategic part of the Singtel Group and we are committed to Australia for the long term."
Optus' EBITDA in 3Q24 and 9M24 fell 1.8% and 8.3% in S$ terms. Extrapolating out for FY24E suggests pricing under this (very) indicative Offer of around 7.6-8.6 turns of EBITDA.


Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

<ul>
<li>Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a></strong> vs. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Reportedly, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a></strong> is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. </li>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a></strong> and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a></strong> enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?</li>
</ul>


Even if you were an activist, or a trader with an activism tilt, be long Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) vs. Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Reportedly, Singtel (ST SP) is negotiating a sale of Optus. Both Singtel and Optus scotch those rumours. 

Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) enter into a Scheme. As expected. The key question: is CITIC, with 18.9% of shares out, supportive?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), RHB Invest

RHB Invest

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

RHB Investment Bank is one of the leading capital market players in Malaysia. Supported by an award-winning research team of experienced product specialists, RHB Group Investment Banking offers a full range of investment banking products and services covering primary markets, such as advisory (corporate & debt restructuring, mergers and acquisitions, takeovers), fundraising via both equity and debt instruments, and secondary markets including securities trading for both institutional and retail clients. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SingTel (SGX:Z74)'s FY23 results missed on AUD weakness, albeit. with the highest dividend payout since FY19.</li><li>With FY23 return on invested capital (ROIC) rising to 8.3% (FY22: 7.3%), SingTel's management has set a new low double-digit target in the medium term.</li><li>4QFY23 core earnings of S$489m (-12.5% q-o-q, +4.4% y-o-y) brought SingTel's FY23 (Apr 2022 to Mar 2023) core earnings to S$2.05bn (+7% y-o-y), at 90% of our forecast (consensus: 93%) with the key deviation coming from the weaker AUD (-6% year-to-date).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SingTel (SGX:Z74)'s FY23 results missed on AUD weakness, albeit. with the highest dividend payout since FY19.With FY23 return on invested capital (ROIC) rising to 8.3% (FY22: 7.3%), SingTel's management has set a new low double-digit target in the medium term.4QFY23 core earnings of S$489m (-12.5% q-o-q, +4.4% y-o-y) brought SingTel's FY23 (Apr 2022 to Mar 2023) core earnings to S$2.05bn (+7% y-o-y), at 90% of our forecast (consensus: 93%) with the key deviation coming from the weaker AUD (-6% year-to-date).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

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<p><em><strong>This week in StubWorld ...</strong></em></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-telecommunications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20:1" rel="noopener">Singtel (ST SP)</a>'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the GFC. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on SingTel are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...


Singtel (ST SP)'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the GFC. 


Preceding my comments on SingTel are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.





External broker reports(aggregated public sources), UOB Kay Hian

UOB Kay Hian

Backed by the UOB Group, UOB Kay Hian is one of Asia’s largest brokerage firms. Headquartered in Singapore, we are supported by more than 80 branches worldwide including a growing network of offices across Southeast Asia, Greater China, the United Kingdom and North America. Our global footprint and strong international presence have enabled us to feel the pulse of key financial markets and deliver incisive intelligence across industry sectors and asset classes. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>SingTel reported higher FY23 underlying revenue (+2% y-o-y) and PATMI (+7% y-o-y), driven by NCS, higher data roaming revenue and regional associates.</li><li>Singapore consumer continues to experience ARPU uplift from the ongoing recovery in international travel and ongoing 5G migration.</li><li>Maintain BUY recommendation on SingTel with target price: S$3.15.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SingTel reported higher FY23 underlying revenue (+2% y-o-y) and PATMI (+7% y-o-y), driven by NCS, higher data roaming revenue and regional associates.Singapore consumer continues to experience ARPU uplift from the ongoing recovery in international travel and ongoing 5G migration.Maintain BUY recommendation on SingTel with target price: S$3.15.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SingTel - Improving Core Business Dragged By Weaker Overseas Contributions In FY23

Singapore

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

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Singtel (ST SP)

Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

SingTel is a deep value play, and an inexpensive entry into Bharti; yet the market pushes the implied stub further into negative territory. A sale...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: SingTel Plumbs Multi-Year Low

Singtel (ST SP)'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the global financial crisis.

David Blennerhassett

SingTel - Improving Core Business Dragged By Weaker Overseas Contributions In FY23

SingTel reported higher FY23 underlying revenue (+2% y-o-y) and PATMI (+7% y-o-y), driven by NCS, higher data roaming revenue and regional associates.

UOB Kay Hian

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Optus Sale Would Be A BIG Payday For SingTel

SingTel is a deep value play, and an inexpensive entry into Bharti; yet the market pushes the implied stub further into negative territory. A sale...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric /Oriental Land, SingTel, Alumina/Alcoa, Li Ning

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

SingTel - ROIC Trending Up; Keep BUY

With FY23 return on invested capital (ROIC) rising to 8.3% (FY22: 7.3%), SingTel's management has set a new low double-digit target in the medium...

RHB Invest

StubWorld: SingTel Plumbs Multi-Year Low

Singtel (ST SP)'s implied stub, net of all listcos, is currently around the lowest level outside of the global financial crisis.

David Blennerhassett

SingTel - Improving Core Business Dragged By Weaker Overseas Contributions In FY23

SingTel reported higher FY23 underlying revenue (+2% y-o-y) and PATMI (+7% y-o-y), driven by NCS, higher data roaming revenue and regional associates.

UOB Kay Hian