Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>PM Lawrence Wong led the PAP to a bigger victory than in 2020, winning 87 of the 97 seats, and 65.6% of votes in contested seats (vs 61.2% in 2020). </li>
<li>Since one 5-member seat (Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC) was won uncontested (while all seats were contested in 2020) the vote share figures aren't strictly comparable between 2020 and 2025. </li>
<li>Nonetheless, the larger proportion of votes and seats won by PAP give the PM a freer hand in making and implementing policy with a seemingly stronger mandate. Positive for Singapore. </li>
</ul>


PM Lawrence Wong led the PAP to a bigger victory than in 2020, winning 87 of the 97 seats, and 65.6% of votes in contested seats (vs 61.2% in 2020). 
Since one 5-member seat (Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC) was won uncontested (while all seats were contested in 2020) the vote share figures aren't strictly comparable between 2020 and 2025. 
Nonetheless, the larger proportion of votes and seats won by PAP give the PM a freer hand in making and implementing policy with a seemingly stronger mandate. Positive for Singapore. 


Singapore: Lawrence Wong Boosted by Mild Improvement in PAP Vote Share

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, its highest level in three years, amid inflation concerns as Brent crude continued to trade above USD105/bbl.</li><li>We expect the SET Index to trend lower and test its next support at around 1,584 points, pressured by US dollar strength and the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5%.</li><li>DELTA's parent company plans to raise USD1.5bn by issuing bonds convertible into DELTA shares.</li></ul>

The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, its highest level in three years, amid inflation concerns as Brent crude continued to trade above USD105/bbl.We expect the SET Index to trend lower and test its next support at around 1,584 points, pressured by US dollar strength and the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5%.DELTA's parent company plans to raise USD1.5bn by issuing bonds convertible into DELTA shares.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 15, 2026

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As we had forecast in Sep'24, the S$NEER has depreciated since the Oct'24 policy statement (despite officially unchanged policy). SS$NEER likely to depreciate further, with SGD reaching S$1.39/US$ by end-Mar'25. </li>
<li>The productivity rebound, bolstered by 10%YoY growth in machinery investment in Q3/24, enabled ULCs to moderate, rising just 0.9%YoY economy-wide (slowest in 4 years), helping contain headline and core inflation.</li>
<li>We expect inflation to remain below 2%YoY in 2025, while real GDP grows 3.2% (above the government's "1 to 3%" growth forecast), driven by investment and productivity growth in H1.</li>
</ul>


As we had forecast in Sep'24, the S$NEER has depreciated since the Oct'24 policy statement (despite officially unchanged policy). SS$NEER likely to depreciate further, with SGD reaching S$1.39/US$ by end-Mar'25. 
The productivity rebound, bolstered by 10%YoY growth in machinery investment in Q3/24, enabled ULCs to moderate, rising just 0.9%YoY economy-wide (slowest in 4 years), helping contain headline and core inflation.
We expect inflation to remain below 2%YoY in 2025, while real GDP grows 3.2% (above the government's "1 to 3%" growth forecast), driven by investment and productivity growth in H1.


Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

<ul>
<li>After 8 quarters of employment-led growth, productivity grew 1.5%YoY in Q2CY24, as machinery investment grew 3.8%YoY. The large pipeline of unfulfilled investment commitments from 2022 should boost machinery investment further. </li>
<li>NODX rebounded to 13.2%YoY growth (16.1%YoY volume growth) in Jul-Aug'24, and the BoP current account surplus was 20% of GDP in H1CY24. As productivity accelerates, inflation will moderate. </li>
<li>We expect real GDP to grow 3.7% in 2024. But lower inflation will allow S$NEER's pace of appreciation to be reduced (Oct'24) and S$NEER re-centered lower (Mar'25). Bullish. </li>
</ul>


After 8 quarters of employment-led growth, productivity grew 1.5%YoY in Q2CY24, as machinery investment grew 3.8%YoY. The large pipeline of unfulfilled investment commitments from 2022 should boost machinery investment further. 
NODX rebounded to 13.2%YoY growth (16.1%YoY volume growth) in Jul-Aug'24, and the BoP current account surplus was 20% of GDP in H1CY24. As productivity accelerates, inflation will moderate. 
We expect real GDP to grow 3.7% in 2024. But lower inflation will allow S$NEER's pace of appreciation to be reduced (Oct'24) and S$NEER re-centered lower (Mar'25). Bullish. 


Singapore: Productivity-Led Cyclical Recovery Will Dampen Inflation, Ease Policy

<ul><li>On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI), discussing the global minimum tax (GMT).</li><li>The Cabinet meeting on March 7, 2023, resolved to support a global minimum tax rate of 15% for large multinational enterprises (MNEs) with a minimum annual income of EUR750mn under the OECD framework.</li><li>On June 17, 2024, the OECD Council, comprising 38 member countries, unanimously approved the commencement of accession discussions with Thailand.</li></ul>

On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI), discussing the global minimum tax (GMT).The Cabinet meeting on March 7, 2023, resolved to support a global minimum tax rate of 15% for large multinational enterprises (MNEs) with a minimum annual income of EUR750mn under the OECD framework.On June 17, 2024, the OECD Council, comprising 38 member countries, unanimously approved the commencement of accession discussions with Thailand.

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Singapore Treasury (SINGAPORE GOVT)

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 15, 2026

The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, its highest level in three years, amid inflation concerns as Brent crude continued to trade above...

Krungthai XSpring

Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Singapore: Productivity-Led Cyclical Recovery Will Dampen Inflation, Ease Policy

Productivity is accelerating amid a machinery investment-led cyclical rebound. ULCs & inflation are declining, even as RGDP accelerates to 3.7%...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Special Report: Global Minimum Tax

On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Singapore: Lawrence Wong Boosted by Mild Improvement in PAP Vote Share

​PM Lawrence Wong led PAP to a bigger victory, winning 87 of 97 seats and 65.6% of votes, giving him a stronger mandate for policy-making. WP (a...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 15, 2026

The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, its highest level in three years, amid inflation concerns as Brent crude continued to trade above...

Krungthai XSpring

Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. ​S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Singapore: Productivity-Led Cyclical Recovery Will Dampen Inflation, Ease Policy

​Productivity is accelerating amid a machinery investment-led cyclical rebound. ULCs & inflation are declining, even as RGDP accelerates to 3.7%...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Special Report: Global Minimum Tax

On June 27, 2024, KTX was honored to host Ms. Uthaiwan Watanasuvakul, Director of the Competitiveness Enhancement Division at the Thailand Board...

Krungthai XSpring

PM Lawrence Wong led PAP to a bigger victory, winning 87 of 97 seats and 65.6% of votes, giving him a stronger mandate for policy-making. WP (a...

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Productivity is accelerating amid a machinery investment-led cyclical rebound. ULCs & inflation are declining, even as RGDP accelerates to 3.7%...