HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.</li>
<li>The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. </li>
<li>Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> look appealing in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.
The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. 
Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, BYD Electronics (285 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK) look appealing in 2H25.


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>RemeGen granted exclusive rights to develop and commercialize Telitacicept worldwide (excluding Greater China) to Vor Biopharma for $125M. Innovent Biologics received a first-in-class weight loss drug approval in China.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway for the treatment of certain types of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). SanBio now expects Akuugo approval in H2FY26, instead of Q2FY26.</li>
<li>Otsuka in-licensed HBM7020 from Harbour BioMed for an upfront payment of $47M and near-term milestones. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has launched Beigene’s Tevimbra in India for NSCLC.</li>
</ul>


RemeGen granted exclusive rights to develop and commercialize Telitacicept worldwide (excluding Greater China) to Vor Biopharma for $125M. Innovent Biologics received a first-in-class weight loss drug approval in China.
Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway for the treatment of certain types of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). SanBio now expects Akuugo approval in H2FY26, instead of Q2FY26.
Otsuka in-licensed HBM7020 from Harbour BioMed for an upfront payment of $47M and near-term milestones. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has launched Beigene’s Tevimbra in India for NSCLC.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 29)- RemeGen, Innovent, Daiichi, SanBio, Otsuka, Chugai, Glenmark

<ul>
<li>Samsung Biologics launches organoid-based drug screening services to support early-stage drug discovery and development. Daewoong Pharmaceutical signed a five-year KRW74B export agreement for botulinum toxin product with its Thailand partner.</li>
<li>Shionogi’s tender offer for Torii Pharmaceutical has become successful. Simcere stuck outlicensing agreement with NextCure for ADC drug candidate SIM0505 for upfront payment, development, and sales milestones up to $745M.</li>
<li>CSL received FDA approval of Andemry for hereditary angioedema. PharmaEssentia has received marketing approval of Besremi in Argentina. Lotus Pharmaceutical acquires a portfolio of five drugs in Vietnam.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Biologics launches organoid-based drug screening services to support early-stage drug discovery and development. Daewoong Pharmaceutical signed a five-year KRW74B export agreement for botulinum toxin product with its Thailand partner.
Shionogi’s tender offer for Torii Pharmaceutical has become successful. Simcere stuck outlicensing agreement with NextCure for ADC drug candidate SIM0505 for upfront payment, development, and sales milestones up to $745M.
CSL received FDA approval of Andemry for hereditary angioedema. PharmaEssentia has received marketing approval of Besremi in Argentina. Lotus Pharmaceutical acquires a portfolio of five drugs in Vietnam.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 22)- Samsung Biologics, Daewoong Pharma, Shionogi, Simcere, CSL

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> received conditional marketing approval for its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug, Trastuzumab Rezetecan for Injection (SHR-A1811).</li>
<li>In 1Q25, Jiangsu Hengrui reported revenue growth of 20% YoY to RMB 7.2B. Innovative drugs and Licensing should help keep this momentum in near future.</li>
<li>The near-term trigger for the stock would be a further marketing approval from the US FDA.</li>
</ul>



Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) received conditional marketing approval for its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug, Trastuzumab Rezetecan for Injection (SHR-A1811).
In 1Q25, Jiangsu Hengrui reported revenue growth of 20% YoY to RMB 7.2B. Innovative drugs and Licensing should help keep this momentum in near future.
The near-term trigger for the stock would be a further marketing approval from the US FDA.


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 29)- RemeGen, Innovent, Daiichi, SanBio, Otsuka, Chugai, Glenmark

Last week couple of Chinese companies signed outlicensing deals with international players. Innovent got weight loss drug approval in China....

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 22)- Samsung Biologics, Daewoong Pharma, Shionogi, Simcere, CSL

Samsung Bio launches new service for early-stage biotechs. Shionogi’s tender offer for Torii becomes successful. Simcere stuck outlicensing deal....

Tina Banerjee

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity

Jiangsu Hengrui receives conditional approval for Trastuzumab Rezetecan for NSCLC. In 1Q25, the company reported sales growth of 20%. Innovative...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

​Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 29)- RemeGen, Innovent, Daiichi, SanBio, Otsuka, Chugai, Glenmark

Last week couple of Chinese companies signed outlicensing deals with international players. Innovent got weight loss drug approval in China....

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 22)- Samsung Biologics, Daewoong Pharma, Shionogi, Simcere, CSL

Samsung Bio launches new service for early-stage biotechs. Shionogi’s tender offer for Torii becomes successful. Simcere stuck outlicensing deal....

Tina Banerjee

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH): ADC Drug Approval Presents Long-Term Opportunity

​Jiangsu Hengrui receives conditional approval for Trastuzumab Rezetecan for NSCLC. In 1Q25, the company reported sales growth of 20%. Innovative...

Tina Banerjee

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Jiangsu Hengrui receives conditional approval for Trastuzumab Rezetecan for NSCLC. In 1Q25, the company reported sales growth of 20%. Innovative...