IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. </li>
<li>The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   </li>
</ul>


On 21 February, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Sinopharm-led consortium at HK$4.60 per share, a 47.4% premium to the undisturbed price.
The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable and Ping An’s blocking stake. 
The key risk is the deal close timing due to the slow pace of regulatory approvals, which increases the chance that the vote will held after the August interim.   


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:872:1" rel="noopener">Link REIT (823 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> are massive laggards YTD.</li>
<li>As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. </li>
</ul>


Many have missed out on the 14%, or 2,300 points, rally of the HSI in the last 9 trading days. There are still several stocks that look interesting now.

Li Auto (2015 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) and Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) are massive laggards YTD.
As they have only experienced limited rebounds from the 19-Apr trough, they are set to catch up. Also, their earnings prospects look positive this year. 


HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023. New products including Mingfule, Yilouda, and Anfulike achieved rapid sales ramp-up due to inclusion in the NRDL.</li>
<li>The company expects to launch 50 innovative drugs in the next five years, which will provide continuous momentum. The company further aims for 17 common generic launches during 2024–2025.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical shares are trading at a P/E of 11.3x, lowest level seen in last five years, and cheaper than peers. Dividend yield remains attractive at 4%+.</li>
</ul>



CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023. New products including Mingfule, Yilouda, and Anfulike achieved rapid sales ramp-up due to inclusion in the NRDL.
The company expects to launch 50 innovative drugs in the next five years, which will provide continuous momentum. The company further aims for 17 common generic launches during 2024–2025.
CSPC Pharmaceutical shares are trading at a P/E of 11.3x, lowest level seen in last five years, and cheaper than peers. Dividend yield remains attractive at 4%+.


CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a> disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from GL Capital at HK$18.80 per share, a 33.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$14.04 on 15 March).</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The Bank of China, which holds a blocking stake, should be supportive.</li>
<li>The offer price has been declared final. It is reasonable, aligning with the all-time high and the IPO price. This is a done deal.</li>
</ul>



Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK) disclosed a scheme privatisation offer from GL Capital at HK$18.80 per share, a 33.9% premium to the undisturbed price (HK$14.04 on 15 March).
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The Bank of China, which holds a blocking stake, should be supportive.
The offer price has been declared final. It is reasonable, aligning with the all-time high and the IPO price. This is a done deal.


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital’s Scheme Offer at HK$18.80

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Akeso Biopharma Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104's commercialization potential on other indications was "overdrawn" in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. </li>
<li>The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.</li>
<li>If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.</li>
</ul>


Akeso’s product sales grew rapidly in 2023, mainly driven by off-label use of AK104. Since AK104's commercialization potential on other indications was "overdrawn" in advance, sales growth would slow afterwards. 
The key investment logic of Akeso is whether/how much its BsAb pipelines would grab shares from PD-1. The high valuation has somewhat priced in AK112’s successful head-to-head trial with pembrolizumab.
If AK112 does beat Keytruda, valuation will reach a new level. If AK112 fails in critical clinical trials, it would cast a shadow on the entire BsAb pipeline of Akeso.


Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable...

Arun George

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth

CSPC Pharmaceutical reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023, with new products driving sales ramp-up. The company plans to launch 50...

Tina Banerjee

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital’s Scheme Offer at HK$18.80

The offer price has been declared final. It is reasonable, aligning with the all-time high and the IPO price. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Akeso's valuation has somewhat priced in the success of AK112’s head-to-head trial with KEYTRUDA.But if AK112 fails in critical trials, it will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Evaluating Deal-Break Risks

The wide gross spread (7.0%) reflects risks around the re-rating of peers, the slow pace of satisfying the pre-condition, the completion timetable...

Arun George

HK Strategy: Where Are the Short-Term Opportunities?

Li Auto, Link REIT, China Mengniu, Hang Lung Properties, and Galaxy Entertainment are massive laggards YTD but the recent rebound from the trough...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): Deep Value High Dividend Yield Idea; New Launches to Drive Growth

​CSPC Pharmaceutical reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023, with new products driving sales ramp-up. The company plans to launch 50...

Tina Banerjee

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): GL Capital’s Scheme Offer at HK$18.80

The offer price has been declared final. It is reasonable, aligning with the all-time high and the IPO price. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Akeso Biopharma Placement (9926.HK) - Would Investors Be Willing to Take a Gamble?

Akeso's valuation has somewhat priced in the success of AK112’s head-to-head trial with KEYTRUDA.But if AK112 fails in critical trials, it will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSPC Pharmaceutical reported steady growth in finished drugs in 2023, with new products driving sales ramp-up. The company plans to launch 50...