HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-strategy-it-is-the-foreign-exchange-impact-stupid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99729" rel="noopener">China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!</a> </li>
<li>The new beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-energy-engineering-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21017:1" rel="noopener">China Energy Engineering (3996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotrans-limited-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1321:1" rel="noopener">Sinotrans (598 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avichina-industry-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16315:1" rel="noopener">AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK)</a> generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  </li>
</ul>


As Rmb moved from appreciation in 1Q23 to depreciation in 2Q23, there is a total change in the beneficiaries discussed in China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid! 
The new beneficiaries are CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK), China Energy Engineering (3996 HK), China Communications Construction (1800 HK), Sinotrans (598 HK) and AviChina Industry &amp; Technology H (2357 HK). 

CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) generated 20.2% of FY22 earnings from exchange gain as Rmb depreciated. Revenue from outside China rose 10% in 1H23 and accounted for 54.4% of total.  


China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed</li>
<li>We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth</li>
<li>FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers</li>
</ul>


Down 66% from its 2021 IPO price, Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) has been a loser for investors, though we would argue its underlying performance on fundamentals has been mixed
We believe FTA's narrow focus on expanding its lead in China's spot, inter-city FTL trucking market blinds management to the broader role it must pursue to ensure long-term growth
FTA should aggressively funnel users into its Transaction Commission segment and invest in building a Transportation Management Software offering to attract and retain customers


Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

<ul>
<li>China's two national port companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.</li>
<li>With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.</li>
<li>CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.</li>
</ul>


China's two national port companies China Merchants Port (144 HK) and Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) have underperformed, but exports have picked up. We see an opportunity here.
With a 9.2% increase in container throughput, CSPL even down by 4.8% YTD, underperformed CMPH by 12.9pp. There is room for it to catch up.
CSPL is also cheaper at 7x and 6.3x PERs for the next two years, making it more attractive on a relative basis.


China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 114.0% as of May 10th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -7.0ppt week-on-week, led by energy, utilities, communication services and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, CGN Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power, Cansino, Pharmaron.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 114.0% as of May 10th.
The average A-H premium changed by -7.0ppt week-on-week, led by energy, utilities, communication services and offset by consumer staples, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Petrochina, CGN Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power, Cansino, Pharmaron.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 10th): 19 Stocks at 52w Low

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.5% as of Apr 26th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -8.5ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.5% as of Apr 26th.
The average A-H premium changed by -8.5ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 26th): Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen

China

Sinotrans Limited provides integrated logistics services with core service of sea, air, rail and road freight forwarding, express services and shipping agency services.  The Company also provides support services of storage and terminal services, trucking and marine transportation services.

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Sinotrans (598 HK)

China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

The Rmb continued to depreciate in last month, by another 2.2% so far into Jul. With interim results to be reported in Aug, it is important to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (May 10th): 19 Stocks at 52w Low

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Petrochina, CGN Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 26th): Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zoomlion Heavy, Sinotrans, Remegen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Strategy: The RMB Reversal Is Just Too Fast!

The Rmb continued to depreciate in last month, by another 2.2% so far into Jul. With interim results to be reported in Aug, it is important to...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Full Truck Alliance: Currently Less Than 'Full Loaded', but Issues Are Fully Fixable

FTA's shares are down 66% vs their IPO price, but underlying performance has been mixed. To ensure long-term growth, FTA should follow our two-part...

Tracking Traffic

China Port Pair Opportunity: COSCO Shipping Ports Vs. China Merchants Port

​China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (May 10th): 19 Stocks at 52w Low

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Petrochina, CGN Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 26th): Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Zoomlion Heavy, Sinotrans, Remegen.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China's national port companies, CMPH and CSPL, have underperformed but with recovering throughput, there is an opportunity. CSPL is cheaper at 7x...