Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Historically, when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire (B) (87 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire (A) (19 HK)</a> gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP) </a> / WFS transaction appears all stitched up with major shareholder Temasek backing the deal. The acquisition is expected to close in 1Q23, subject to regulatory clearance.   </li>
<li>We had the heads up days (or a week plus) ago, and now it is official. Bain has now launched its Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> at ¥2,181/share.</li>
</ul>


Historically, when Swire (B) (87 HK) / Swire (A) (19 HK) gets more than 6% from 3mo Avg VWAP Ratio, there is statistically significant reversion. We are now at 6.8%. 
The SATS (SATS SP)  / WFS transaction appears all stitched up with major shareholder Temasek backing the deal. The acquisition is expected to close in 1Q23, subject to regulatory clearance.   
We had the heads up days (or a week plus) ago, and now it is official. Bain has now launched its Tender Offer for Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) at ¥2,181/share.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$1.3bn, split (+US$0.75bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.58bn) for Shenzhen.</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$1.3bn, split (+US$0.75bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.58bn) for Shenzhen.
The largest inflows were into Tencent (700 HK) and CNOOC Ltd (883 HK). The largest outflows were in Sunny Optical (2382 HK) and ICBC (H) (1398 HK).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (30 September 2022)

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 23rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight three weeks of inflows despite weak market sentiment and flows into Tencent and CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 23rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight three weeks of inflows despite weak market sentiment and flows into Tencent and CNOOC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 23rd): Tencent, CNOOC

<ul>
<li>Macau gaming companies gained this week as Hong Kong is expected to ease Covid restrictions, with Macau expected to follow suit.</li>
<li>Last week, the six incumbent Macau gaming operators submitted tenders for the gaming concessions, together with last-minute interloper, the Genting Group.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> has borrowed heavily and also leads other Macau gaming plays in dividends paid out to shareholders. This may not be lost on Macau officials. </li>
</ul>


Macau gaming companies gained this week as Hong Kong is expected to ease Covid restrictions, with Macau expected to follow suit.
Last week, the six incumbent Macau gaming operators submitted tenders for the gaming concessions, together with last-minute interloper, the Genting Group.

Sands China (1928 HK) has borrowed heavily and also leads other Macau gaming plays in dividends paid out to shareholders. This may not be lost on Macau officials. 


Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives

<ul>
<li>In a surprise move, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a> - or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3141:1" rel="noopener">Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)</a> - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.</li>
<li>The bidding process follows Macau's record low monthly gaming revenue in July after casinos were closed for 12 days in response to a Covid outbreak.</li>
<li>Casinos have re-opened, yet there is little to cheer about as business remains muted. The six winners are expected to be announced by the end of November or early December.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise move, Genting Bhd (GENT MK) - or Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) - has joined the six incumbents in bidding for new casino licences in Macau.
The bidding process follows Macau's record low monthly gaming revenue in July after casinos were closed for 12 days in response to a Covid outbreak.
Casinos have re-opened, yet there is little to cheer about as business remains muted. The six winners are expected to be announced by the end of November or early December.


Hong Kong

SJM Holdings is a leading owner, operator, and developer of casinos and integrated entertainment resorts in Macau. The company's operations encompass casino gaming, hotels, dining, shopping, and wellness facilities. SJM Holdings was incorporated in Hong Kong in 2006 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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SJM Holdings (880 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (30 September 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$1.3bn, split (-US$0.75bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 23rd): Tencent, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent Holding (700 HK) and CNOOC (883 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives

Sands China appears fairly valued here. If I had to bet on one incumbent whose license could be lost, Sand China stands out. For that, I would...

David Blennerhassett

Genting Fancies A Flutter In Macau

Macau's China-like, zero-Covid policy affords limited visibility. In contrast, Singapore reported its highest gaming revenue quarter - April-June -...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Swire Pacific, SATS/WFS, Hitachi Metal, Jinke Smart, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (30 September 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$1.3bn, split (-US$0.75bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 23rd): Tencent, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent Holding (700 HK) and CNOOC (883 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sands China (1928 HK): Positives And Negatives

Sands China appears fairly valued here. If I had to bet on one incumbent whose license could be lost, Sand China stands out. For that, I would...

David Blennerhassett

Genting Fancies A Flutter In Macau

Macau's China-like, zero-Covid policy affords limited visibility. In contrast, Singapore reported its highest gaming revenue quarter - April-June -...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (30 September 2022)