Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> scooped <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s $72B payout plan on Aug 19—a day prior to mainstream media adoption that triggered Thursday’s Samsung +9.49% surge.</li>
<li>On <strong>Aug 2</strong> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-position-for-next-leg-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we advised positioning LONG in Samsung Electronics at/below 240 to capture the next leg of upside</a>. The stock bottomed the following week at 227.5. </li>
<li>
<strong>Last week <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung</a> became overbought</strong>, this was signaled in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/weekly-tactical-recap-tencent-sk-hynix-samsung-ks200-hitachi-advantest-corp-hanwa-solutions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WEEKLY Tactical Recap</a>. The stock fell this week (as expected) but the payout plan news propped the stock up again.</li>
</ul>



Sanghyun Park scooped Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s $72B payout plan on Aug 19—a day prior to mainstream media adoption that triggered Thursday’s Samsung +9.49% surge.
On Aug 2 we advised positioning LONG in Samsung Electronics at/below 240 to capture the next leg of upside. The stock bottomed the following week at 227.5. 

Last week Samsung became overbought, this was signaled in our WEEKLY Tactical Recap. The stock fell this week (as expected) but the payout plan news propped the stock up again.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Post-$72B Capital Return Plan

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Since 2x leveraged ETFs linked to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK hynix (000660 KS)</a> launched in late May, volatility in the underlying stock has increased significantly.</li>
<li>Although daily rebalancing can amplify price moves, the data do not indicate that it does so systematically.</li>
<li>Overnight and intraday returns are largely uncorrelated across the sample, although they tend to reinforce each other on days with extreme moves.</li>
</ul>


Since 2x leveraged ETFs linked to SK hynix (000660 KS) launched in late May, volatility in the underlying stock has increased significantly.
Although daily rebalancing can amplify price moves, the data do not indicate that it does so systematically.
Overnight and intraday returns are largely uncorrelated across the sample, although they tend to reinforce each other on days with extreme moves.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): 130% Volatility and 2x Leveraged ETF Rebalancing

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Street sees end-August print with Solidigm tie in; total around 70 trillion won, mix buyback plus special dividend, staged from 4Q with multi year buyback and FCF linked quarterly payouts.</li>
<li>Near term narrative weak; immediate shareholder return signal unlikely. Faster Solidigm timeline could signal urgency on peak out risk and reinforce concerns rather than remove them.</li>
<li>Tactical setup; if stock catches a bid, play the pop, monetize relief, and rotate out rather than chase strength.</li>
</ul>


Street sees end-August print with Solidigm tie in; total around 70 trillion won, mix buyback plus special dividend, staged from 4Q with multi year buyback and FCF linked quarterly payouts.
Near term narrative weak; immediate shareholder return signal unlikely. Faster Solidigm timeline could signal urgency on peak out risk and reinforce concerns rather than remove them.
Tactical setup; if stock catches a bid, play the pop, monetize relief, and rotate out rather than chase strength.


Latest Read on Hynix Shareholder Return and Solidigm Since Last Friday’s Filings

<ul>
<li>Hynix might have rushed ADR to price off Q1 within 135 day window, with weak Q1 LTA pricing already baked in and expected to pressure forward earnings.</li>
<li>Hynix’s aggressive ADR timeline compromised fungibility, leading some investors to view the move as a signal of management’s cautious outlook on forward memory pricing.</li>
<li>Hynix is more likely to go with incremental filings in batches. That gives them flexibility to manage supply and support the underlying tactically instead of committing to a risky buyback.</li>
</ul>


Hynix might have rushed ADR to price off Q1 within 135 day window, with weak Q1 LTA pricing already baked in and expected to pressure forward earnings.
Hynix’s aggressive ADR timeline compromised fungibility, leading some investors to view the move as a signal of management’s cautious outlook on forward memory pricing.
Hynix is more likely to go with incremental filings in batches. That gives them flexibility to manage supply and support the underlying tactically instead of committing to a risky buyback.


Investigation into Hynix ADR Fungibility Restoration and Key Open Questions

<ul>
<li>Local chatter says government is pushing early Hynix Samsung shareholder return amid KOSPI weakness. Buybacks would signal support at current levels, counter supply driven memory downside.</li>
<li>Hynix cited ADR quiet period as reason for limited disclosure, likely tied to Rule 174d window ending August 4. Market expects buyback post expiry, with positioning already tightening Square/Hynix spread.</li>
<li>Chatter sees Hynix disclosing buyback size and timing soon, likely phased with policy unchanged. Government pressure supports earlier rollout; stay long narrative and lean into Square Hynix pair.</li>
</ul>


Local chatter says government is pushing early Hynix Samsung shareholder return amid KOSPI weakness. Buybacks would signal support at current levels, counter supply driven memory downside.
Hynix cited ADR quiet period as reason for limited disclosure, likely tied to Rule 174d window ending August 4. Market expects buyback post expiry, with positioning already tightening Square/Hynix spread.
Chatter sees Hynix disclosing buyback size and timing soon, likely phased with policy unchanged. Government pressure supports earlier rollout; stay long narrative and lean into Square Hynix pair.


Square Spread Compression on Early August Hynix Buyback Narrative

South Korea

SK hynix Inc. provides products and services for the electronic components industries. The Company manufactures semiconductors such as dynamic random access memory (DRAM), NAND flash memory, and static random access memory (SRAM) chips.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SK Hynix (SKHY US)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Post-$72B Capital Return Plan

Following extreme swings between overbought and oversold states in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), we outline our quantitative support levels and...

Nico Rosti

SK Hynix (000660 KS): 130% Volatility and 2x Leveraged ETF Rebalancing

This Insight examines the extent to which daily rebalancing by 2x leveraged ETFs accounts for the recent surge in SK hynix’s volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

Latest Read on Hynix Shareholder Return and Solidigm Since Last Friday’s Filings

This post shares the latest read on Hynix shareholder return and Solidigm following last Friday’s filing, including the latest local market chatter...

Sanghyun Park

Investigation into Hynix ADR Fungibility Restoration and Key Open Questions

Local flow points to weaker than expected HBM pricing outcomes between Samsung, Hynix and NVIDIA. Street had priced in roughly 2x YoY ASP uplift,...

Sanghyun Park

Square Spread Compression on Early August Hynix Buyback Narrative

This post examines SK Square spread compression driven by expectations around an early August Hynix buyback announcement.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)